Will US AIRWAYS outbid Southwest for AirTran?

[SparrowHawk]

I still vote for a US and Hawaiian Airlines merger! HAL is expanding to the pacific with upgrading its fleet to A330 AC. With similar AC imagine flying AC equipment from Europe to PHL to PHX to HNL to SYD or say Japan. That would make us more of a game player hell throw in B6 in the mix and we can kick ass....Screw AA it will be a labor workers blood bath....

I think your logic is sound with one exception. Hawaiian doesn't need US Airways to grow and be successful so the airline would sell at a premium and we all know how that would sit with the Cheap Suit Serenaders in Tempe.

If the goal is for US to remain stand alone then you have to find a way to expand quickly and Hawaiian would do that, with I think a fair amount of fleet commonality. Domestically I also like going after Republic for a variety of reasons I've stated previously

 

[Kittyhawk]

I still vote for a US and Hawaiian Airlines merger! HAL is expanding to the pacific with upgrading its fleet to A330 AC. With similar AC imagine flying AC equipment from Europe to PHL to PHX to HNL to SYD or say Japan. That would make us more of a game player hell throw in B6 in the mix and we can kick ass....Screw AA it will be a labor workers blood bath....

No! No! No! Not Hawaiian. Don't get me wrong, I would love to merge with them for all the same reasons you mentioned before. But I flew Hawaiian over the summer and they were great. Just like flying used to be before everyone got so low cost. I fear that if we merge, we will ruin one of the bright spots of this industry. Hawaiian should be left untouched and unspoiled by any of the other domestic carriers. If they have to merge, I hope it is with US. But my vote is for them to remain a stand alone.

 

[PHL]

B6 would give US a very prestigious, brand new terminal at JFK with the routes to go with it. Couple that with the fleet commonality and their many *A partners at JFK, and it would seem like a better idea than merging with AA....

 

[cynic]

B6 would give US a very prestigious, brand new terminal at JFK with the routes to go with it. Couple that with the fleet commonality and their many *A partners at JFK, and it would seem like a better idea than merging with AA....

The routes are to places US already flies and doesn't add feed to either of the hubs that feature transatlantic flights. JFK is also slot restricted, preventing US from adding international flights to take advantage of the B6 feed. There isn't a need to merge with AA right now either. If the company had the capital to do so, I think we would see some strategic growth into markets negatively impacted by the various other mergers. The best merger candidates for US were NW and UA, as both had transpac routes without much overlap on the east coast or southwestern part of the country. Alaska and Hawaiian are the only two realistic options and they aren't on the table, even if US had the capital to take a run at them.

 

[usa1]

😱 If the merger goes through as planned, the combined airline's fleet would include 685 737s and 86 Boeing 717s :unsure:

 

[signals]

I have money on a LUV/B6 merger in the future. I've given my opinion on who US can merge with. Disney!

 

[jimntx]

😱 If the merger goes through as planned, the combined airline's fleet would include 685 737s and 86 Boeing 717s :unsure:

There may be method to LUV's apparent madness. As I understand it, LUV has been shedding the smaller capacity 737s they have in inventory. Some of the markets they could serve don't justify a "large" 737; however, the 717 might do just fine. It's an airplane we could use at AA with its 100 or so seats if the APA would cooperate, but they want same payrate for that plane as the 140-seat MD-80. (No, I do not want to get into a discussion of the SCOPE clause. Just recognizing that the economics don't work with 40 fewer seats.)

That being said, I would bet the 717s will be replaced with 737s at the earliest opportunity. One of the cornerstones of WN's financial success has been having only one airplane type.

 

[PITOCC71]

I have money on a LUV/B6 merger in the future. I've given my opinion on who US can merge with. Disney!

LOL if the deal included moving OCC to Orlando rather than Pits-burgh(spelling intended) I will gladly welcome such a merger with open arms!!

In all seriousness a AA/US merger is the only sensible merger mainly to reduce competition/capacity! A US/B6 could also do such a thing though it would be bad for B6 frequent fliers(goodbye DirecTV and free snacks should that happen)!

For the near future though I see US being one of the dorks from "Sixteen Candles" sitting alongside Anthony Michael Hall on the bleachers, watching consolidation from the sidelines!

 

[AAviator]

There may be method to LUV's apparent madness. As I understand it, LUV has been shedding the smaller capacity 737s they have in inventory. Some of the markets they could serve don't justify a "large" 737; however, the 717 might do just fine. It's an airplane we could use at AA with its 100 or so seats if the APA would cooperate, but they want same payrate for that plane as the 140-seat MD-80. (No, I do not want to get into a discussion of the SCOPE clause. Just recognizing that the economics don't work with 40 fewer seats.)

That being said, I would bet the 717s will be replaced with 737s at the earliest opportunity. One of the cornerstones of WN's financial success has been having only one airplane type.

Nah, the 717 is a relic. No need for it at AA.

Here's the jet that does to the 100 seat segment what the 787 does to the 250-300 seat segment.

http://www.bombardier.com/en/aerospace/products/commercial-aircraft/cseries?docID=0901260d800091e6

No need for affiliates to fly them either...

Interesting times. I give a US/AA combination somewhere less than zero percent of a chance happening.

 

[usa1]

Southwest Airlines Co. may make Atlanta its biggest post-merger hub, according to a Bloomberg report Thursday. Airline might add to AirTran’s 202 daily flights form Atlanta.

http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news/2010/10/28/report-southwest-may-make-atl-top-city.html?ana=yfcpc

I bet they tie CLT, GSO, GSP, ROA into the new ATL hub?

 

[IberiaMAL]

http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news/2010/10/28/report-southwest-may-make-atl-top-city.html?ana=yfcpc

I bet they tie CLT, GSO, GSP, ROA into the new ATL hub?

You left out a part that I found interesting:

“It could turn out Atlanta is the largest city in the Southwest network over time,” Jordan said.


Atlanta Business Chronicle

What do you mean tie Charlotte into the new ATL hub? You mean Charlotte would be a spoke to Atlanta? Isn't that a given? :huh: Maybe I misunderstand you?

 

[USFlyer]

Last I checked Airtran already flies ATL-CLT.

 

[usa1]

Last I checked Airtran already flies ATL-CLT.

I should have said, the new Southewest will increase service from CLT to ATL to "hourly service". And add service from ATL to GSP, ORF, GSO, ROA, etc.

Here's a quote I saw this morning.

AirTran has 202 daily departures from Atlanta, and Southwest may “do well north of that,” Bob Jordan, Southwest’s executive vice president for strategy and planning, said today at a media event at the carrier’s Dallas headquarters.

Southwest is about to completely overlap US Airways on the east coast.

I think they will route their AC like this MIA-ATL-GSP-BWI-BOS. And TPA-ATL-GSO-PHL-PVD. And JAX-ATL-ORF-PHL-MDW. Just a few examples.

I don't look for them to just set up a hub and spoke operation in ATL. I look for them to research markets and offer the best "direct" service between three city pairs, using their focus cities along the way. I think we use to call fares in those markets hopscotch fares. Planes stay full all the way through. It resembles their point-to-point strategy and adds a hubbing affect at the same time.

Awesome model for them ... but bad news for US and DL!

 

[IberiaMAL]

I should have said, the new Southewest will increase service from CLT to ATL to "hourly service". And add service from ATL to GSP, ORF, GSO, ROA, etc.

Here's a quote I saw this morning.



Southwest is about to completely overlap US Airways on the east coast.

I think they will route their AC like this MIA-ATL-GSP-BWI-BOS. And TPA-ATL-GSO-PHL-PVD. And JAX-ATL-ORF-PHL-MDW. Just a few examples.

I don't look for them to just set up a hub and spoke operation in ATL. I look for them to research markets and offer the best "direct" service between three city pairs, using their focus cities along the way. I think we use to call fares in those markets hopscotch fares. Planes stay full all the way through. It resembles their point-to-point strategy and adds a hubbing affect at the same time.

Awesome model for them ... but bad new for US and DL!

WN is not going to start hourly service between ATL and CLT. Airtran currently has 2X flights I believe. Delta and US Airways have that market covered and then some.


WN will not have US overlapped on the east coast. WN taking over Airtrans operation will put less emphasis - or so some think - on the hub and spoke model which many Airtran cities rely on (AVL among others).


Delta recently pulled out of 4 cities leaving US the sole carrier in 3 cities. Florence, Lynchberg, and Hilton Head. WN will most likely concentrate more on ATL O&D routes and add frequency to WN strongholds where Airtran doesn't even fly to from Atlanta...


this benefits US Airways. Because of the recent acquisitions, fares will rise 15% next year.




Consolidation = rise in fares. So much doom and gloom. Hop on down I85 to Atlanta. There's the doom and gloom. WN focusing on Atlanta O&D is not going to hurt US at Charlotte.


US has a 600 flight hub in Charlotte, 500 flight hub in Philadelphia and nearly 300 LGA+DCA. WN is not going to eclipse that simply by purchasing Airtran...

Orlando is going to see some cuts from overlaps in the WN/Airtran network along with BWI. ATL will gain more flights, but that's Atlanta O&D who doesn't effect Charlotte much because most people from Atlanta are not going to fly US domestic through Charlotte most likely...

 

[usa1]

WN is not going to start hourly service between ATL and CLT. Airtran currently has 2X flights I believe. Delta and US Airways have that market covered and then some.

You place WN style fares on flights out of CLT, with WN connections through ATL to all the old Airtran markets and they will fill them up and put a lot of preasure on US to lower fares.

Then look past CLT's O&D (very small anyway, mostly connections in CLT) and the new overlap I see will slowly erode US & DL's eastcoast CLT & ATL connections.

The way they have their focus cities strung up and down the east coast (ATL, BWI, PHL,BNA) they can fly from them to an intermediate market and continue to another focus city and then to a second intermediate market. In many instances this will offer the best direct service between the two intermediate markets...this is also a good, safe way to slowly enter new markets .. time will tell?