Will US AIRWAYS outbid Southwest for AirTran?

[IberiaMAL]

Read what I wrote. With 2-4 gates, WN could add as many as 20-40 flights/day at CLT. I never said how many they would add although I feel pretty confident they'll have more than FL currently has. That's because WN can utilize a gate for up to 10 flights/day, but they don't always do it.

Jim

I know you said could and I didn't think you implied that you felt they would or wouldn't add up to 40 daily flights. I was saying you as in you plural (ya'll) to those who imply WN will come up and add enough flights to dent US's CLT operations.

Sorry for not being as clear 😛



I was arguing that even if WN had the "real-estate," that it's unlikely Luv would take a "large bite" out of Charlotte.

A net Gain of ~10 flights - in my opinion - is not a "large bite."

 

[BoeingBoy]

As I've said before, anything that lowers the yield in CLT will hurt US disproportionately as it the biggest carrier - CLT is US' yield cash cow hub. Whether it is a "large bite" is subject to opinion, the number of cities WN serves compared to the number with low-cost service now, and how much the average yield drops.

Jim

 

[dash8roa]

WN has customer appeal in friendly flight attendants,no baggage fees,flight and ground crews that hustle and make you feel that they are doing their best to get you to your destination.I have flown them a few times in the past and was pleased with the service they offered.On some us flights I found some of the flight attendants unresponsive and too much talking among themselves.Us is I believe the only carrier that charges a processing feeto redeem frequent flyer miles,a bad move that has left a sour taste in many customers.If the customer redeems his miles using a res agent,it perhaps that justifies the fee,but when done on line,what processing does US do? WN will be received well in clt and while it wont be a large station for them,perhaps 15-25 flights,they will reduce fares and give us a few headaches.

Anyone know how many gates WN might end up with?

Just my thoughts and experiences flying both airlines.

 

[usa1]

As I've said before, anything that lowers the yield in CLT will hurt US disproportionately as it the biggest carrier - CLT is US' yield cash cow hub. Whether it is a "large bite" is subject to opinion, the number of cities WN serves compared to the number with low-cost service now, and how much the average yield drops.

Jim

"We have the opportunity on some of those routes to drop fares 40%," Jordan said, according to The Dallas Morning News. "It's almost a no-lose if you can go into a market and not only ... offer a great product, but ... bring fares down 40%, stimulate the market [and] provide a lot of competition."

 

[flyhigh]

From http://www.heraldonl...-charlotte.html

“Orr said the airport could probably find additional space for new Southwest flights.

One option: The airport is adding gates at the end of Concourse E, which is primarily used by US Airways Express. Those gates will be able to service Boeing 737 jets, which is the plane Southwest currently uses.”

 I think you will see WN add more ATL, one to each of their big Florida cities (FLL, MCO, TPA), MDW, more BWI, BOS area, BNA, STL, LAS. That's a lot but if you figure they can do 7 flights per gate based on GSP/CHS schedules it may not require much in CLT. More importantly, I echo Jim's comment that any pain would be bad for US.
 

 

[BoeingBoy]

The BTS just released the 2nd quarter Air Fare Report today - a sampling of domestic yields:

CHS 41.01 cents/mile (hasn't WN announced service there??)
CLT 22.45
ATL 21.15
RIC 20.36
STL 20.15
RDU 19.98
WAS 19.63 (IAD & DCA - DCA should be higher while IAD should be lower)
JAX 19.03
PIT 18.72
PHL 17.08
ORF 16.08
PHX 15.99

You have to get down to STL for WN to have significant service (~15 destinations). RDU has ~10 WN destinations, IAD has 2, JAX 9, PIT 7, PHL 18, ORF 7, and of course PHX is a sizable operation for WN. If WN drops CLT's average yield to that of ATL, a drop of 1.3 cents/mile, that would put a sizable dent in US' profitability.

Jim

 

[gizmo_sc]

Where did you hear that WN was opening up GSO and AVL. I dont believe that WN is doing that now or anytime in the future, especially GSO. Maybe you are confused with GSP. AVL is currently a AirTran city but NOT GSO... AirTran pulled out of GSO about 5 years ago.

TYPO PERHAPS !!!!!!!!!!

 

[flyhigh]

I think at this point given the airtran purchase GSO is off the table. Along with AVL.

1.3 cents per mile is a huge dent for US when you consider the cities it will hit (likely). Let's just assume MDW is one. It is likely that either Eagle pulls out (not likely) or US/UA begins downgrades to RJ which starts a downward spiral even though it is virtual hub to hub. Things like that are where WN hurts a competitor!

 

[USFlyer]

Let's not forget that almost every route (nonstop, direct or connecting) that WN will would likely fly from CLT already has LCC competition, be it from Airtran, jetBlue, etc. US will do just fine competing against WN. Also, as I mentioned elsewhere, WN is the cheapest fare only about 25-30 percent of the time. US already undercuts many carriers on many routes, even ones where WN doesn't compete today. It's doing that and still making a decent profit.

 

[BoeingBoy]

Let's not forget that almost every route (nonstop, direct or connecting) that WN will fly from CLT already has LCC competition, be it from Airtran, jetBlue, etc.

So you know the routes WN will fly from CLT before they're announced. Do tell the rest of us.

Jim

 

[USFlyer]

So you know the routes WN will fly from CLT before they're announced. Do tell the rest of us.

Jim

There's really no need for sarcasm. I simply used logical reasoning.

Take a look at every city WN serves out of cities similar to CLT. Many of those cities have LCC competition already on some other carrier, notably Airtran via Atlanta or jetBlue via JFK. Add-in that WN is only forecasting "modest" capacity growth for 2011, one can logically deduce there won't be some sort of full scale assault on US in CLT.

US knows full well the days of monopoly routes are for the most part over, except perhaps on some smaller regional routes (for now).

 

[BoeingBoy]

Let's see - which lcc serves CLT-Chicago non-stop? STL? MCI? MCO? JAX? LGA? DCA? Houston? Dallas?

You should realize that undercutting other network carriers is one thing and undercutting (or even matching) lcc's is another, so anything that results in US dropping any fares out of CLT produces less revenue in it's highest yielding hub and will reduce US' revenue. US could try to do what it did PHL-BOS on non-stop routes from CLT - charge $2/mile to offset loses from competing with lcc's - but just like PHL-BOS that will only work so long.

Will it be a night and day difference overnight - I never said that. But anyone that thinks it won't make a difference is smoking some good weed.

Jim

 

[usa1]

Where did you hear that WN was opening up GSO and AVL. I dont believe that WN is doing that now or anytime in the future, especially GSO. Maybe you are confused with GSP. AVL is currently a AirTran city but NOT GSO... AirTran pulled out of GSO about 5 years ago.
TYPO PERHAPS !!!!!!!!!!

Looking at this I would think GSO will be included soon. Newport News might be on the chopping block, use Norfolk instead, WN is already establish there? .... http://www.airtran.com/route-map/city_information.aspx "At this link point at a city and routes appear."

I didn't realize Airtran only served two Florida cities out of AVL, nothing to ATL.

 

[flyhigh]

WN may not always have the lowest fare but if you compare their fare stratification to US, you will find that US's highest fare on a CLT route will likely be higher that WN's hightest walk up fare. So, if WN introduces flights to PHL for example with a lower walk up fare, no baggage fee and no change fee which is part of their next advertising blitz, who do you choose to fly? I know my company will encourage the cheapest flight. Right now we have no choice.

 

[usa1]

AirTran Opens Up the Revenue Floodgates for Southwest

An “Extremely Big Competitive Force”

LINK