Delta loads new DAL flights

[swamt]

WT, your wrong about St Louis.  After SWA started Dal to St Louis it wasn't long before SWA became #1 Carrier moving the most passengers.  Yes SWA effect did happen at St Louis.  Once SWA started the flights and continued to take passengers away from AA for this route, AA had to drastically cut down their St Louis presence as well as flights from DAL to St Louis that they vacated all together from Love Field, they were sent back home to DFW by the competition.  
SWA's cost structure is still a leader.  When you add in all the fees and cost of the finished flight and not just the ticket price (bags, pets, change, reschedule, not checking in on line, ect...)  SWA is still the LCC leader in pricing.  Currently the only airlines out pricing SWA are the  ULCC's, but you really do get what you pay for with them, and some people really like it that way, and some are getting tired of it.
The only reason why SWA's ticket prices are closer to the legacies is directly do to the legacies all filing for BK (some twice, some third time) and restructuring and dismantling all the employees retirements, pay, bennies, jobs and concessions so that they can lower their ticket prices closer to SWA's and other LCC's.  SWA has never filed for BK and I hope we never do.  SWA still has the full control rather anyone can increase ticket prices.  If SWA wants to raise 5 bucks each way, it's a no brainer, all airlines copy and follow.  If any of the legacies want to raise 10 bucks each way, and SWA doesn't they all retreat the increase just as fast as they tried to increase it. 
For you to state that the SW effect didn't happen is preposterous.  Passengers numbers increased and fares dropped double % decreases.  Why do you think they rebuild and expanded the airport after AA was vacating and SWA was growing??   The Southwest Effect is in fact still very much alive and still working, and now you will see it go international...

 

[eolesen]

except that there was no WN effect when WN started DAL-STL and MCI, 2 routes that AA had dominated after DL pulled down its hub.  WN didn't create significant amounts of new demand; they simply divided the market with AA,

The WN Effect applies to a new market. New is a market not already served by WN, just in case you needed clarification...

In the case of DAL-STL and DAL-MCI, there were multiple one-stops intended to serve those markets (just as there are to many of the destinations expected to be added at DAL).

When the Bond amendment went thru adding MO to the Wright perimeter, WN added nonstops and reduced the two-steps. The effect was one of diluting traffic more than stimulating untapped demand.

Certainly you can grasp the differences between dilution and stimulation...

 

[Kev3188]

 
 

Now he going to give us a lesson on how much JetBlue sucks and can't do anything right....

DL Uber Alles.

 

[WorldTraveler]

[SIZE=medium]Swamt,[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]I so love it when you make claims that can easily be verified as to their truthfulness.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]The reality is that in the 8 years since WN has been flying DAL-STL, the average fare in the combined DFW/DAL-STL LOCAL MARKET is nearly identical to what it was when AA had nearly the entire market to itself (after DL had already shut its DFW hub).[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Passengers have grown by 16%. [/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=medium]Now keeping fares at the same level as they were 8 years ago IS an accomplishment given that fuel prices have dramatically increased.  [/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]HOWEVER, in the same period of time, average fares in AA’s top 5 markets from DFW have risen by only a couple percent BUT the total market has GROWN more than it has in DFW-STL.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]BUT, AA has maintained a higher percentage of the combined share from DAL/DFW to those top five markets than it has to/from STL where WN’s average fare is now within a couple percent of AA’s AND WN actually has a majority of the market.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=medium]In the first year of service, the average fare in the market dropped by 50% as WN added fares.  But as soon as WN received its 50% of the market, fares have gone back up.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=medium]As much as you want to believe otherwise, THE EVIDENCE IS OVERWHELMING that WN has NOT stimulated traffic in the combined DAL/DFW – STL market and all that they have done over the 8 years they have been in the market is take half of the market, most of which AA had to itself.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=medium]For those AA fans who think that AA will be exempt from WN’s market additions from DAL, the evidence is overwhelming that WN is after half of the market and they have been successful in getting it.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=medium]For you and WN fans, the evidence is overwhelming that WN has not stimulated the market any more than what has happened in AA’s top 5 markets from DFW – and in that market group AA still controls a much higher majority of the market.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=medium]Whether you want to believe it or not, the facts are clear that WN has not stimulated the DAL/DFW-STL market on a long term basis and has only managed to shift a significant portion of the market from DFW to DAL.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=medium]If the DOJ had come close to doing its own homework, they would see that WN hasn’t stimulated the DFW/DAL-STL market any more than has happened in other markets.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=medium]Given that WN’s costs are higher than B6 and some of the ULCCs that are now flying some of AA’s top 5 markets from DFW, it is an absolute indictment of WN that they have done no better job of stimulating the market or lowering fares than the ULCCs have done.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=medium]If the DOJ had logically looked at the data and if you would do the same, you would realize that WN’s bottom line CASM is not more than a few percent lower than the legacy carriers.  WN cannot price its product on a long-term basis lower than the difference between it and its legacy competitors.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]It is WN”s basic CASM difference now that prevents it from being able to be a price leader.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=medium]For all the talk you do about how high WN’s employees make relative to their network peers, you can’t seem to accept that WN has lost its ability to be a low price leader.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=medium]The only way WN can successfully compete with legacies is to find protected markets such as the DCA and LGA slot divestitures and the DAL gates that the network carriers cannot access in order to successfully compete against the network carriers.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=medium]Whether you like it or not, WN does not have the advantage to successfully compete against network carriers by lowering fares and taking share that it once had.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=medium]And it is for that reason that they do not want to compete against network carriers, including DL, who can win on the basis of a higher quality global product and generate revenue premiums in the process. [/SIZE]
 
 
[SIZE=medium]If you or E or anyone else even bothered to look at the data, you could not be making the claims you are and they would not be making any statements about DL[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=medium]DL wasn't and isn't a part of what took place in this market.  [/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=medium]This is about WN's claimed ability to stimulate the market which they most certainly did not do on a sustained basis.  [/SIZE]

 

[Kev3188]

 
 
Now he going to give us a lesson on how much JetBlue   WN sucks and can't do anything right....

 
You were saying, sir?

 

[LD3]

 
You were saying, sir?

Give him time....

 

[swamt]

Wrong again WT.  When SWA started flights to ST Louis from Dal the fares did go down.  not talking about fares years after SWA moved in, but when they were started fares went down and passenger numbers increased which is the exact definition of the Southwest Effect.   Get over yourself and just admit you are wrong WT, C'mon, you can do it...

 

[WorldTraveler]

NO, the data unequivocally shows that WN lowered fares just long enough to pull half of the market over to DAL and WN and since then fares have gone back up to where they are nearly identical to AA's and the market has grown no larger in DFW-STL markets than the top 5 markets from DFW which have had a mixture of competition from other carriers. 
 
As much as you want to believe otherwise, the most recent and direct evidence shows that the WN effect does not exist from DAL.
 
The WN effect was real and did expand many markets in the past.  It doesn't exist now and it certainly doesn't exist from DAL. 
 
When you can get over the fact that WN's sole objective at DAL is to take market share from AA at DFW at the highest possible fares and keep any other competitor out of the market that would limit WN's ability to gain share and price the product as high as possible, then you will be able to intelligently contribute to the discussion.
 
Continuing to parrot the same WN talking points which are at least a decade old proves you don't understand where WN really is in terms of competition today.
 
If there is any doubt, WN's failed attempts to build up PHL and ATL prove that they don't have the power to do what they started at DEN when they were using their fuel hedge gains as an advantage. 
 
WN has no more ability to lower fares and stimulate traffic than any other legacy airline.
 
The same DOJ that told everyone they didn't have time to do a thorough analysis of the AA/US merger would have figured it out if they had actually looked at the data..

 

[blue collar]

NO, the data unequivocally shows that WN lowered fares just long enough to pull half of the market over to DAL and WN and since then fares have gone back up to where they are nearly identical to AA's and the market has grown no larger in DFW-STL markets than the top 5 markets from DFW which have had a mixture of competition from other carriers. 
 
As much as you want to believe otherwise, the most recent and direct evidence shows that the WN effect does not exist from DAL.
 
The WN effect was real and did expand many markets in the past.  It doesn't exist now and it certainly doesn't exist from DAL. 
 
When you can get over the fact that WN's sole objective at DAL is to take market share from AA at DFW at the highest possible fares and keep any other competitor out of the market that would limit WN's ability to gain share and price the product as high as possible, then you will be able to intelligently contribute to the discussion.
 
Continuing to parrot the same WN talking points which are at least a decade old proves you don't understand where WN really is in terms of competition today.
 
If there is any doubt, WN's failed attempts to build up PHL and ATL prove that they don't have the power to do what they started at DEN when they were using their fuel hedge gains as an advantage. 
 
WN has no more ability to lower fares and stimulate traffic than any other legacy airline.
 
The same DOJ that told everyone they didn't have time to do a thorough analysis of the AA/US merger would have figured it out if they had actually looked at the data..

Sounds like the DOJ should've contacted you. You've got all of your pro DL talking points, and then DAL would've been a slam dunk. You're a pro at taking different data and using it to show DL's superiority; whether it's local boardings, or total pax, or even growth rate!

 

[WorldTraveler]

they could have gotten the same information from the US DOJ... and that is the same city.
 
They clearly didn't even bother asking them... if they had, they couldn't have come up with the conclusions they did. 
 
They were fed a line of horse excrement by WN's marketing dept. and bought it hook, line, and sinker. 

 

[swamt]

WT, your first para in posting #278 confirms what I have been saying.  Lower fares and increase in passenger traffic.  I don't care if it happens temporarily or perm. the SW Effect still happened.  And you know that the SW Effect is mostly used at "NEW MARKETS"  not existing ones, but it did in fact still happen in this case.  Also, when SWA starts new markets they always, I repeat always, start with introductory fares, which means they are low for the introductory of the new routes.  At least you finally admit it did happen by your first paragraph above.  So why all the head butting and posturing?  Oh yea I forgot this is WT we are dealing with, never mind...

 

[WorldTraveler]

and what is the basis for giving a carrier preferential basis  at an airport only to lower fares long enough to pick off half of the market but not grow it.
 
No one has argued that WN CAN'T lower fares and stimulate traffic... I've repeatedly noted that is exactly what they did at MCI/STL-DAL 
 
But WN can't lower fares below their costs and their costs are not that much lower than any legacy carriers'. 
 
WN cannot lower fares to levels that will stimulate traffic on a longterm basis.  Period. 

 

[700UW]

So why does DL need subsidies from certain airports to operate flights then?

 

[WorldTraveler]

DL has largely walked away from subsidized markets. 
 
 
care to let us know what market you are referring to?

 

[eolesen]

DL has largely walked away from subsidized markets.

Feel free to use the "we don't like subsidies" argument when it fits you, ignoring it when it's the other guy walking away.