WeAAsles
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I like this response Tim. Very well thought out.Tim Nelson said:I'm uncomfortable guessing outside of the contracts but I presume that has something to do why AH is wanting to increase the minimums above 56. One of the things that a union will sell with a Cindy date is that, the union, will be in joint talks, and be in position to secure a joint agreement prior to the expiration of the Cindy dates. I believe that is a fatal flaw. Cindy dates give management more leverage as the date is approached and incites management to delay any joint agreement until after it has the liberties to exercise the built in mine fields. The union will also take a naïve approach and suggest to the members that all the non hubs may cross the threshold if you simply add the AMR jets and US AIRWAYS jets together. ORD is a hub, and so is MIA, so those two US AIRWAYS stations will be safe. But when we see the trend caused by the United agreement with Airline Management, we don't see any evidence that totaling flight activity from both separate contracts is wise. In theory, if you total both sets of flight activity together then you can build a strawman argument that a city, once combined, will be covered. But that assumes any joint contract will keep the better scope clause, and that management will not 'rightsize' a particular station. Stations like IND, BNA, RDU, etc would come into play. It's fun to look at it that way and it does provide an element of peace of mind, and maybe RDU, IND, BNA will meet thresholds, but I'm just uncomfortable making those assumptions by totaling activity and basing it on scope of a particular contract that will not even be in existence when the totaling occurs. That said, your opinion is certainly just as valid as mine on this.
I do consider though the part that DP has stated very clearly that he believes this merger will be a lot smoother than the others that preceded it. I think he basically sold Wall Street and the lenders on that promise moving forward and to gain their confidence for further investment in the airline for the future.
Bumps in the road could absolutely occur but I just have a feeling.