2nd Qtr From Lakefield

[vc10]

Why is Lakefield AGAIN taking an issue which is relatively positive, UAIR'S breaking even in Q2, and turning it into something very negative? If I remember correctly, the original plan which was submitted to the ATSB to justify the loan guarantee said that UAIR would break even by the end of 2004, then start showing profits in 2005. Sounds like UAIR is right on track, EVEN WITHOUT RAPING THE EMPLOYEES AGAIN! Could this just be a case of "kicking them while they're down"? Also, what kind of description uses the word "cloudy" when describing future potential to Wall Street? Could it be that things aren't THAT BAD, and they're trying to keep the perception that MORE cuts are needed? Sorry to the neigh sayers if I don't immediately believe anything that these guys say, but they've lied so much in he past, how can anyone believe them (yes, I consider Lakefield to be Siegel reincarnate, both were just "talking heads" for the RSA).

No, it's not on track. As you say, US needs to break even for all of 2004. Breaking even in the *best* quarter of the year means US will be significantly underwater for the whole year.

He's not taking a positive and turning it into a negative. All he's doing it is calling it as it is---US isn't doing as well as it needs to, not by a long shot. There's no trickery or slight-of-hand. It's just reality, which is what everyone needs to face if US has even the slightest chance of getting through this.

Siegel never got on particularly well with RSA. It wasn't his first choice for a private equity investor (that was Texas Pacific Group, the fund that gave him a job at Gate Gourmet after he left US). The position of Siegel and Lakefield relative to RSA is very different. Equating the two men in that respect is also wrong.

 

[Oliver Twist]

I am so glad I made the jump several months ago to a new job. I urge all those that can, KEEP YOUR EYES AND EARS OPEN for other opportunities while working through this mess - and it is a MESS! Good luck to you all!

Please don't think I'm gloating about leaving. I hope U makes it, but can you afford the wages it will take to make it work? I could not. I left 21 years and 7 weeks vacation on the table and that hurts bigtime.

 

[delldude]

I am so glad I made the jump several months ago to a new job. I urge all those that can, KEEP YOUR EYES AND EARS OPEN for other opportunities while working through this mess - and it is a MESS! Good luck to you all!

Please don't think I'm gloating about leaving. I hope U makes it, but can you afford the wages it will take to make it work? I could not. I left 21 years and 7 weeks vacation on the table and that hurts bigtime.

I left 21 years and 7 weeks vacation on the table and that hurts bigtime.

nobody gets 7 weeks anymore. <_<

 

[oldiebutgoody]

No, it's not on track. As you say, US needs to break even for all of 2004. Breaking even in the *best* quarter of the year means US will be significantly underwater for the whole year.

He's not taking a positive and turning it into a negative. All he's doing it is calling it as it is---US isn't doing as well as it needs to, not by a long shot. There's no trickery or slight-of-hand. It's just reality, which is what everyone needs to face if US has even the slightest chance of getting through this.

Siegel never got on particularly well with RSA. It wasn't his first choice for a private equity investor (that was Texas Pacific Group, the fund that gave him a job at Gate Gourmet after he left US). The position of Siegel and Lakefield relative to RSA is very different. Equating the two men in that respect is also wrong.

Sorry, I disgree with you on ALL accounts. Also, if UAIR was going to lose money for ALL of 2004, that language would have been used, not terminology like "cloudy". I figure that Lakefield is stuck between a rock and a hardplace. He can't make it look too good, or no concessions. They're counting on them to get them their windfall for the RSA, and maybe get a better price for UAIR or it's assets. Lakefield had to be as nebulous as he could in the report to the SEC, lest he be in real trouble later, and he knows it. If these guys were really in the straits they say, they'd have instituted a lot more streamiling measures by now. If UAIR, as you say, isn't doing as well as it should, then they need to fix the system, not rape the only real asset they have left, their employees.

 

[funguy2]

oldiebutgoodie... I don't think Lakefield was all that nebulous... He said losses for the 3rd and 4th Quarter would likely be similar to 1st quarter, and 2nd Quarter would be break even. The math:

1Q -$177Mil
2Q +$10Mil
3Q -$150Mil
4Q -$150Mil
==========
04 -$467Mil

Note, I assumed a modest profit for 2Q and reduced the quarterly loss for 3Q and 4Q. That does not suggest breakeven for the year... by a half billion dollars.

Even if the company gets its concessions, and breaks-even the rest of the year, thats a $200mil loss for the year... A great result as far as UAIR is concerned, but not good enough, and not on ATSB target.

I, for one, don't see UAIR getting another round of concessions in place for 3Q... After all, we are already 15days into the quarter, and the company and unions seem to have little of the negotiations "wrapped up". There will probably be no agreement until at least mid August, giving time for 2Q results to be reviewed by the unions, which is half way through 3Q... And that is the most optimistic I can be. At the pace this company works, I don't expect Round 3 to be done until at least end of 3Q... If you do that math, thats a $300Mil loss for the year

I agree that the company should have taken more action by now... But I think they just don't know where to start, and any initial steps will be more painful (but necessary) than the status quo.

 

[WorldTraveler]

word from lavatory stall 2 late friday was orlando to become focus city possibly.

And, of course, Delta will gladly welcome US back to Florida.

US simply has no place to put a bunch of airplanes. The industry is highly competitive and US does not have the financial resources to engage in a drawn out slugfest to establish itself in new markets.

 

[Oliver Twist]

nobody gets 7 weeks anymore. <_<

Yes your right, I forgot about that. 4 weeks vacation and 2 weeks of holidays, but it still stinks to leave that. But then again, when I take a vacation day now. I get full pay!