AA CUTTING FLIGHTS

[donttouchthebeauty]

They've disclosed that they're hedged at 40% for this quarter, but I'd be shocked if AMR didn't have futures contracts of some form out thru 2010. They're one of the few carriers with the cash and the credit to take out options that far. Likewise for WN and CO, who have already partially disclosed what their positions are (70% and 10% respective for 2008).

Get real, most all carriers hedge, and most all US carriers have significant cash on hand... This is more than likely a ploy by management to get what they want, b/c, it could possibly come to fruition (grounding of a/c) that is.. Lets just say if AA gives the workers even a third of what they want, AMR will be Bankrupt before you know it... It wouldn't surprise me, if fuel gets much higher, for AA to give raises and then turn around a couple of months later and file for BK... It will be a tough negotiation with the price of fuel and already having high labor costs and an old fleet of a/c... Please, you would be lucky if you could give away a super 80 these days, even if they were a cheaper price to purchase, the fuel would eat up the savings quickly, and you could be flying around in a new Boeing or Airbii...

 

[FA Mikey]

Here we go again with the bankruptcy scenarios, from the mathematician. As I recall only 1 airline has expressed interest in grounding up to 100 airplanes. That being 1/5 of its fleet and the only airplanes that don't have liens on them.


PS this just in

Fitch Ratings on Tuesday boosted the credit outlook on American Airlines and its corporate parent because of the carrier's efforts to reduce its debt load.

Fitch raised its outlook on the airline and AMR Corp. to "Positive" from "Stable," signaling that a ratings upgrade is possible, but kept their issuer default ratings at "B-". AMR's senior unsecured debt rating is "CCC," while American Airlines' secured bank credit facility is at "BB-".

All the ratings remain below investment grade.

"The affirmation and outlook revision reflect progress made by AMR in directing free cash flow toward debt reduction throughout 2007, as well as Fitch's expectation that the airline can de-lever its balance sheet further -- even in the face of record-high jet fuel costs and a challenging U.S. economic outlook moving into 2008," the ratings agency said in a statement.

Last month, AMR said it would pay off $545 million in debt five years ahead of time, saving the company tens of millions of dollars in interest costs and releasing 16 planes used to secure the loan.

Fitch said the positive outlook means AMR's issuer default rating could soon be upgraded to "B."

 

[donttouchthebeauty]

Here we go again with the bankruptcy scenarios, from the mathematician. As I recall only 1 airline has expressed interest in grounding up to 100 airplanes. That being 1/5 of its fleet and the only airplanes that don't have liens on them.


FaMikey - you are so right, I bet you are right there with strAAight and you 2 are going to raise that bar... standard... LOL.... Get back to me when you have your raises in hand... LOL LOL LOL ---- Well that article should go great with your fight for a pay raise and better working conditions Mikey... Wake up and smell the coffee hon, you'll need it...

 

[Nor'Easta]

Well I am scared. I am not scared of Management....I am scared of certain work groups wanting an all or nothing mentality. Some of what I hear can not be possible for the company to survive. I would like to see each and every work group get at least what they gave up back. I think that is only fair. As far as getting more back I would love it but I doubt it. I doubt we will even get close to getting what we lost back.

Im not scared. We have a bargining chip too. If we don't get what we want...STRIKE!

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Get real, most all carriers hedge, and most all US carriers have significant cash on hand... This is more than likely a ploy by management to get what they want, b/c, it could possibly come to fruition (grounding of a/c) that is.. Lets just say if AA gives the workers even a third of what they want, AMR will be Bankrupt before you know it... It wouldn't surprise me, if fuel gets much higher, for AA to give raises and then turn around a couple of months later and file for BK... It will be a tough negotiation with the price of fuel and already having high labor costs and an old fleet of a/c... Please, you would be lucky if you could give away a super 80 these days, even if they were a cheaper price to purchase, the fuel would eat up the savings quickly, and you could be flying around in a new Boeing or Airbii...

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Ahhh....beauty, you may need to remove your Nikes from your "pie hole",(Again) because I heard just this morning(on TV, from an Oil futures trader/Wall street) that Oil "may" have just peaked, and be heading Downward.(slowly, BUT Downward)

(Boy would that be good news for everyone. For AA, a "lucky break" !)...(Think...."ANOTHER AA LUCKY BREAK") !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[donttouchthebeauty]

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Ahhh....beauty, you may need to remove your Nikes from your "pie hole",(Again) because I heard just this morning(on TV, from an Oil futures trader/Wall street) that Oil "may" have just peaked, and be heading Downward.(slowly, BUT Downward)

(Boy would that be good news for everyone. For AA, a "lucky break" !)...(Think...."ANOTHER AA LUCKY BREAK") !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well NHBB, if you think that oil is ever going to go down to where it was previously, I think you are sadly mistaken, it may go down slightly, but unless we take over Russia, then you have another thing coming.. Also, labor is a big pain for AA, even if oil does go down AA has more problems to worry about with labor, you need a triple lucky break NHBB, not just (A) lucky break... It would be good news for AA unions, as they will need all the bargaining power they can get.. Just hope your retirements not axed anytime soon NHBB... It would be a shame, especially after all the company support that you spout on here.

 

[The Goose]

When will the storm be over? Jan 15 - Mar 1 is traditionally a slack period anyway, so I assume the schedule reflects that fact. Ticket prices are rising and passengers are paying. Load factors, while down from the 90% of last summer, remain healthy.

I can see some selective cancelling when certain flights have low load factors, but can't see any reason for a huge capacity dump industrywide. It is contract time, however, so I expect the various managements to do their best to keep us scared.

MK

I'd expect the normal way of doing business (if anything now could be classified as normal) with emphasis and special note added on any capacity reductions (fuel, etc.), as you say, to keep us shaking.

To much capacity reduction lends itself to giving away market share, however. Anything the majors do will quickly be offset by the smaller airlines and Southwest.

It's beginning to appear as though Arpey and minions tried to make AA look poor for too long and got stuck with a bunch of gas guzzlers (S-80s) rather than getting the more fuel efficient equipment other have. Many words as to competing in the marketplace yet little action, that is, with the sole exception of hosing the mechanics and other workers lower on the food chain than management.

 

[eolesen]

Yet the work that Arpey and his minions did in righting AA's balance sheet is now being reflected with a good credit rating, which will pay for itself over and over again with cheaper financing on the MD80 replacement.

 

[aapitbull]

Sorry !!!

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Well NHBB, if you think that oil is ever going to go down to where it was previously, I think you are sadly mistaken, it may go down slightly, but unless we take over Russia, then you have another thing coming.. Also, labor is a big pain for AA, even if oil does go down AA has more problems to worry about with labor, you need a triple lucky break NHBB, not just (A) lucky break... It would be good news for AA unions, as they will need all the bargaining power they can get.. Just hope your retirements not axed anytime soon NHBB... It would be a shame, especially after all the company support that you spout on here.

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beauty,

Let me "paint" a picture SO clear(for YOU) that there never would be a need for Clarity.

Blindly support AA ?.........NOT on YOUR life !!!!!!!!!

There IS a reason, UAL is the number "2" airline behind AA, even though UAL has the 747-400's(which I very much Love), coupled with the largest global reach in the US Industry, ....And that reason(Which EVEN you will admit) Is because, when you "rate" and "add up" the Total of ALL the proficiency numbers of our respective CEO's, since each carriers Inception,..........AA has had the BETTER /SMARTER CEO's.....period !!

GO ahead.............."TRY" to come up with(AT UAL or ANY US Airline), a better "tri-fecta" of CR Smith/Al Casey or (uncle) Bobby CRANDALL !!................."It IS what it IS"...beauty.

(Again)........NO, many times I DON'T "LIKE" AA, but I sure (the ***K) RESPECT AA, for their UNCANNY ability to "land on their feet"

(Just as an example)Not so long ago, all we ever heard was.........."Oh, UAL/boeing "designed" the 777, got it First...Blah..Blah..Blah,...............and through it all, UAL STILL was the SECOND carrier, behind AA.

I repeat beauty, ..........It IS what it IS !!

 

[North by Northwest]

STRIKE![/b]

Speaking from "experience", don't bet on it unless George Bush is sure AA has itself covered.

 

[777 fixer]

I've heard so many rumors over the years that I have learned not to beleive any of them until it actually happens. Let's go over the list. AA was going to order the 787 at the Paris Airshow. FLL was going to be opened for maintenance. Bob Crandall was coming back etc, etc. The funny thing is that there was never so much as a peep regarding the AA/TWA "merger". Well, at least at my end.

 

[Maark767]

Get real, most all carriers hedge, and most all US carriers have significant cash on hand... This is more than likely a ploy by management to get what they want, b/c, it could possibly come to fruition (grounding of a/c) that is.. Lets just say if AA gives the workers even a third of what they want, AMR will be Bankrupt before you know it... It wouldn't surprise me, if fuel gets much higher, for AA to give raises and then turn around a couple of months later and file for BK... It will be a tough negotiation with the price of fuel and already having high labor costs and an old fleet of a/c... Please, you would be lucky if you could give away a super 80 these days, even if they were a cheaper price to purchase, the fuel would eat up the savings quickly, and you could be flying around in a new Boeing or Airbii...

Will you get off the BK theory.... Thats not in the plan.... they would have already filed by now !! You cant file BK with 6 billion in hand..... Also if a company was thinking about filing BK , why would they be so head strong on paying down our debt. Ever article you read says something about how much lower our debt is compared to last year.

 

[FA Mikey]

I am going to hold off the BK theory until AA starts exploring asset sales of things like the frequent flyer program, its maintenance operation and landing slots and route authorities. If AA was saying that they were thinking about grounding 100 plus airplanes and pushing hard for an industry consolidation, well then I would start to worry.