there was an article recently on
www.justplanenews.com that indicated all the orders will continue whthr or not it actually happens remains to be seen
mostly because neither A or B are going to allow the combined AA/US to walk away from significant orders... they could swap one model for another, but the total value of the order is going to be the same regardless of the manufacturer.
Having multiple different fleets are becoming more attractive considering MBV's , tooling, and facilities are no longer needed.
Virtual Airlines - all planes and no employees. It's their goal.
fleet commonality might be ideal if you were starting an airline from a clean sheet of paper but the mergers that have swept the legacy carriers make it impossible to come up w/ a single fleet type for every kind of mission.
But it also doesn't really matter in terms of costs if all 3 network carriers have the same "uncommonality" (complexity) in their fleets.
WN made the decision to retain its unique 737 fleet but I don't know of any large int'l carrier that has aircraft of one family from one manufacturer.
The costs of acquisition are much higher for int'l aircraft and there is an advantage in being able to force both A and B to fight for the business; an airline that decides to retain a common fleet sends a signal to their "preferred" supplier that they are willing to pay a higher price... why would a supplier offer the lowest price if the airline isn't really willing to buy from the other maker?
But, DL is getting many of those planes "on the cheap" by sucking up models (e.g., MD-90s, B717s) from other airlines that had small fleets of those models. I'm assuming DL has decided that the lower purchase/lease costs offset the increase in training/maintenance costs. DL also seems to have embraced the NW model, to a degree, of getting every last cycle out of its airframes.
DL is able to keep aircraft longer and still be profitable because it is attacking the two major components of older aircraft - fuel and maintenance.
The refinery deal is pushing jet fuel prices down - and is also helping other carriers in the process but because DL is focusing its fuel supply efforts in regions where it can most benefit, it stands to gain the most.
As for maintenance, DL is still retiring older A and B aircraft when other carriers are based on cycles, not age- but DL's older aircraft strategy is focused on the DC9 family of aircraft which are very durable - and which no one else seems to want. While the DC9 derivatives have far been surpassed by A and B products in terms of performance and range, the M90 and 717 fill many markets where those aircraft can operate and still maintain A and B fleets to do the longer haul domestic routes.
DL also has other carriers subsidize the complexity of DL's own fleet by gaining maintenance capabilities because of its fleet diversity which it then uses to sell services to other airlines.
DL pilot rumors are that a top-up order for the new gen 330 and current gen 321 are close to being announced; Airbus has been marketing the enhanced 330 as a cost effective alternative to the 787 which is about the same size. While the 787 may have lower operating costs if ownership is not considered, few people outside of finance depts. appreciate how much of a difference $1B in extra debt makes on a balance sheet and the difference in acquisition price just for the 10 330s and the 30 321s could easily exceed $1B when compared to the 787 and reengined 320 or 737 family aircraft.
A DL order would also send a strong signal to Boeing since DL hasn't ordered a new build Airbus product since the 310s post Pan Am.
Combined with the 717 and M90 deals (both of which offer current generation comparable fuel burn), DL's strategy is to keep debt levels far lower than AA and UA; part of AS and WN's success has been much healthier balance sheets than the network/legacy carriers. DL clearly wants to move in the AS/WN direction.
I fully suspect that AA/US will have to slow some of their fleet replacement down the road if for no other reason than that the extra pension obligations which weren't expected when AA went into BK will become a significant drain on AA's finances.