American/USAir-why not now?

[777 / 767 / 757 Love]

[sub]Lets figure the time airlines have taken in bankruptcy. [/sub]
usair 232 days
usair 378 days
delta 593 days
nwa 624 days
cal 876 days
ual 1150 days
america west 1155
Now are we really that worried about AA?

At least someone said it, all this talk about extensions and how that means AA has no plan and needs a Merger to survive is driven by IGNORANCE and complete lack of appreciation for the FACTS.

Glad to see someone can see the big picture and that compared to ALL OF ITS COMPETITORS, AA has done things the quickest. Now mind you that doesn't mean she is doing it any BETTER, just quicker

Cheers,
777 / 767 / 757

 

[AAviator]

The sooner everyone bows to the LCC+AA concept the better!

With out LCC there will be no successful AA!!!

(just ask UAL, and DL. They passed on LCC and look at the now!)

 

[Art at ISP]

LCC+AA would be disastrous for both sides. Parker can't be trusted. He means nothing of what he's telling you. Why can't you AA folks see that? All you'd have to do is talk to your counterparts at LCC.....
The grass is NOT necessarily greener on the other side of the fence, and even if it looks like it is, in this case, weeds are green too....

 

[Gman10]

The grass is greener on the other side because there is alot of bullsh!t on the other side. I hear it makes great fertilizer.

 

[AAviator]

LCC+AA would be disastrous for both sides. Parker can't be trusted. He means nothing of what he's telling you. Why can't you AA folks see that? All you'd have to do is talk to your counterparts at LCC.....
The grass is NOT necessarily greener on the other side of the fence, and even if it looks like it is, in this case, weeds are green too....

Art, I was being sarcastic. I don't think the grass is green over there at all.

I hope a combination never happens.....................

 

[PITbull]

[sub]Lets figure the time airlines have taken in bankruptcy. [/sub]
usair 232 days
usair 378 days
delta 593 days
nwa 624 days
cal 876 days
ual 1150 days
america west 1155
Now are we really that worried about AA?

You need to check you facts, America West I don't believe ever went into BK.

Most corporate BK take about 18 months to emerge, unless it is a pre-packaged bk. AA is right in line with their peers, and may emerge earlier than most.

BTW, I see that DL revenues this quarter (after 4 years out of BK) was "soft" and their stock is down today at 9.86....as reported by CNBC.

When AA comes out of BK, they are going to kick azzzz, as they will be in position to make money when the others costs are slowly creeping up.

 

[FWAAA]

You need to check you facts, America West I don't believe ever went into BK.

HP filed for Ch 11 in 1991 and emerged from bankruptcy in 1994.

 

[777 / 767 / 757 Love]

Art, I was being sarcastic. I don't think the grass is green over there at all.

I hope a combination never happens.....................

Someone should let the APA and APFA leadership know this, cause those morons think Parker and company are going to save AA. If it happens and they all get f***ed I will bust a gut laughing at them for leading themselves to the slaughter.

Cheers,
777 / 767 / 757

 

[WorldTraveler]

BTW, I see that DL revenues this quarter (after 4 years out of BK) was "soft" and their stock is down today at 9.86....as reported by CNBC.

most airline stocks are down as of this hour today based on a flat overall market. The one exception is LCC which continues to have an inflated stock price based on expectations of a merger. yet, history in many sectors shows that stock prices often are higher before a merger is announced only to fall after the announcement when the reality of what it takes to make a merger work set in.

US revenue is up slightly more than DL - only about 1% - based on increased flying but US RASM continues to trail DL, and more recently, AA.

DL remains the highest valued airline stock in the US, more than 4X higher than LCC even though DL is not 4 times larger than US, and DL is among the top airlines in the world based on stock market value.

Based on the costs which AA projected in its early BK filings, it expects to have costs in line with DL's whose mainline costs are the lowest among the network carriers that have reported so far - AA, DL, and LCC and within 1% of WN's.
AA's mainline costs per available seat mile (ex fuel, profit sharing, specials) in the most recent quarter are 13% higher than DL's. US' mainline costs are about 2% higher than DL's on the same basis.
Obviously AA costs will continue to move in BK; DL said it intended to pull about $1B in costs out.
LCC's conference call w/ analysts is in progress and will include guidance regarding future costs, revenue etc.

 

[PITbull]

HP filed for Ch 11 in 1991 and emerged from bankruptcy in 1994.

Well then, America West got their "free pass" in BK. That translates to me that the only thing that workforce know is bankruptcy concessionary contracts...and with a AA merger possibility, the worforce will once again be in BK concessionary agreements...sucks for them for sure...what a gang Douggie and the boys are.

The f/as from America West have been in bottom of the barrel wage since 2000, so their wages must have been the wages from their post BK contract...geezus, hopefully AA unions wise up. They surely don't want a marriage with America West and US Airways....whose wages have been the lowest in the industry for over a decade... folks over there have had enough of sitting at the bottom of the wage curve.They are "ripe" for a "strike"!

 

[PITbull]

most airline stocks are down as of this hour today based on a flat overall market. The one exception is LCC which continues to have an inflated stock price based on expectations of a merger. yet, history in many sectors shows that stock prices often are higher before a merger is announced only to fall after the announcement when the reality of what it takes to make a merger work set in.

US revenue is up slightly more than DL - only about 1% - based on increased flying but US RASM continues to trail DL, and more recently, AA.

DL remains the highest valued airline stock in the US, more than 4X higher than LCC even though DL is not 4 times larger than US, and DL is among the top airlines in the world based on stock market value.

Based on the costs which AA projected in its early BK filings, it expects to have costs in line with DL's whose mainline costs are the lowest among the network carriers that have reported so far - AA, DL, and LCC and within 1% of WN's.
AA's mainline costs per available seat mile (ex fuel, profit sharing, specials) in the most recent quarter are 13% higher than DL's. US' mainline costs are about 2% higher than DL's on the same basis.
Obviously AA costs will continue to move in BK; DL said it intended to pull about $1B in costs out.
LCC's conference call w/ analysts is in progress and will include guidance regarding future costs, revenue etc.

Well, US Airways costs are higher than DL because they pay their execs too high salaries; top heavy; and way too many VPs running around doing nothing but praying for a merger with AA as their ONLY business plan.

AA is not out of BK, so we shall see where their costs will fall when all is said and done..

How does DL plan to pull out $1billion in cost ??????? They are purchasing a refinery, which I am sure has billions of cost in upstart phase, and in the near future.
And according to what you posted earlier, DL is providing wage increases to their work force and hefty profit sharing...ahead of the rest of the pack, pray tell. So, what is their plan to meet these "bench marks"???

 

[WorldTraveler]

actually, US' CASMs are only about 2% higher which isn't terribly significant, esp. considering that US flies shorter stage lengths since it doesn't have a Pacific operation. Obviously the significance of CASM between DL and US is that DL has higher labor costs but US has higher non-labor costs - more to do w/ DL's efficiency as a larger airline.
Thus, in comparing DL and LCC, the real metric to look at is passenger revenue per ASM. Based on that statistic, DL gains about 2.5% more revenue per ASM than US. Not huge but enough to push DL's profit margin higher and justify higher salaries for DL employees.

It is precisely that scale and efficiency that Parker hopes will come from an AA merger.

DL's startup costs for the refinery were $100M and they said those costs are on track.
Analysts wanted to know how they were going to get those costs out as well and DL talked about reducing aircraft parts prices from acquiring non-flying used aircraft, the known reduction in RJ costs, and the addition of the lower maintenance 717s and 739s.

Obviously the $1B in cost reduction is significant because AA still has about $1B in costs to get out of its system based on what it has said it expected to be able to achieve.

DL noted that a major part of becoming more efficient is thru reducing 50 seat flying and moving it to mainline because mainline costs are lower. Further, DL has been overstaffed w/ pilots since the merger and will be able to staff much of the 717 flying w/ existing DL pilots, thus reducing the incremental cost of that flying.

Obviously other carriers, US and AA included have said they want to reduce small RJ flying and add large RJs so the pieces are still moving for many carriers.

 

[FWAAA]

Quite a few Doug Parker's fans drone endlessly that he's never been in charge of a company that filed for bankruptcy protection while conveniently omitting that he's been the direct beneficiary of multiple bankruptcies. He manages to take over after someone else slashes costs in Ch11. Parker left NW (short-timer there just like his short-time at AA) and joined HP just after HP emerged from Ch 11. Parker was elevated to CEO of HP in 2001 and benefitted from the bankruptcy-era low wage contracts at HP. Then, in 2005, he was handed US, fresh off its second bankruptcy in three years with multiple rounds of concessions and Parker has thrived on the very low wages ever since. He's been assisted in a big way by the "cut nose off to spite face" US East pilots. 2012 is going to come to a close without any pay raises for US pilots or FAs.

 

[signals]

Someone should let the APA and APFA leadership know this, cause those morons think Parker and company are going to save AA. If it happens and they all get f***ed I will bust a gut laughing at them for leading themselves to the slaughter.

Cheers,
777 / 767 / 757

That line starts behind me!

 

[AAviator]

Been saying that all along..

From todays special jetwire: 1500 new F/A jobs, and 2500 new pilot jobs (1300 captain positions) over the next 5 years...

One thing can be said, from a flight crew perspective If this plan actually pans out, it will be much better than watching Parker downsize the LCC ops 30-40% and watch those LCC'ers flood into our job positions...

Plus, there will probably be some RIF that will fall upon the AA side too should a merger happen.