AMR profit predicted

[Imjustsayin]

So you are admitting that AA management doesnt treat their employees like adults?

I think what he might be saying is it appears to the readers of this forum that some of the employees at American Airlines have their heads buried so far in the sand that part of their anatomy sticking out of the sand seems to be doing most of the talking.

 

[Ken MacTiernan]

I think what he might be saying is it appears to the readers of this forum that some of the employees at American Airlines have their heads buried so far in the sand that part of their anatomy sticking out of the sand seems to be doing most of the talking.

IJS,

Would "some of the employees" by chance be any of those who sacrificed so much during the "shAAred sAAcrifice" experiment?

 

[eolesen]

Without a doubt, there are employees in all workgroups, including management, who have their heads in the sand.

Some seem to realize that closing the barn door seven years after the cattle escaped is futile, and it's better to start building up the herd again than it is to piss and moan about the ones that got away, who to blame for the door being open, and why the barn on the next farm over is sooo much better than the one you have....

 

[MCI transplant]

IJS,

Would "some of the employees" by chance be any of those who sacrificed so much during the "shAAred sAAcrifice" experiment?

<_< ------- http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/28/business/28labor.html?_r=1&ref=business

 

[Imjustsayin]

Without a doubt, there are employees in all workgroups, including management, who have their heads in the sand.

Some seem to realize that closing the barn door seven years after the cattle escaped is futile, and it's better to start building up the herd again than it is to piss and moan about the ones that got away, who to blame for the door being open, and why the barn on the next farm over is sooo much better than the one you have....

I appears many of the farmworkers are way too focused on the barn droppings...

 

[Hopeful]

<_< ------- http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/28/business/28labor.html?_r=1&ref=business

There are many people, and some who post here, that ignore the fact that since deregulation, the airline worker has been decimated. Their numbers reduced, wages slashed, benefits degraded either through bankrupcty or threats of bankruptcy.
And the minute we want to be restored of what was taken, we are called unrealistic and greedy. They've taken and taken from us and have paid us back with the "lucky to have a job" speech.

I will be the first one to admit that AA's recent profit is somewhat small, but a profit nonetheless. I do not believe that a profitable quarter warrants returning the billions they took from us to datesimply because of the profit.
However, what is warranted is a restoration BECAUSE we helped them with billions in savings.

 

[MCI transplant]

There are many people, and some who post here, that ignore the fact that since deregulation, the airline worker has been decimated. Their numbers reduced, wages slashed, benefits degraded either through bankrupcty or threats of bankruptcy.
And the minute we want to be restored of what was taken, we are called unrealistic and greedy. They've taken and taken from us and have paid us back with the "lucky to have a job" speech.

I will be the first one to admit that AA's recent profit is somewhat small, but a profit nonetheless. I do not believe that a profitable quarter warrants returning the billions they took from us to datesimply because of the profit.
However, what is warranted is a restoration BECAUSE we helped them with billions in savings.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/28/news/companies/airline_profits_losing_streak.fortune/index.htm

 

[eolesen]

There are many people, and some who post here, that ignore the fact that since deregulation, the airline worker has been decimated. Their numbers reduced, wages slashed, benefits degraded either through bankrupcty or threats of bankruptcy.
And the minute we want to be restored of what was taken, we are called unrealistic and greedy. They've taken and taken from us and have paid us back with the "lucky to have a job" speech.

Don't disagree that wages have gone down, but you're not exactly truthful about the number of jobs.

It wouldn't surprise me if there are now 3x as many airline employees in the US today than there were in 1979. I'll have to dig, but IIRC, AMR only had around 30-35,000 employees in 1980, and maybe 200-250 aircraft.

And it's not just airline workers who have seen their pay stagnate or their jobs go overseas.

 

[Hopeful]

Don't disagree that wages have gone down, but you're not exactly truthful about the number of jobs.

It wouldn't surprise me if there are now 3x as many airline employees in the US today than there were in 1979. I'll have to dig, but IIRC, AMR only had around 30-35,000 employees in 1980, and maybe 200-250 aircraft.

And it's not just airline workers who have seen their pay stagnate or their jobs go overseas.

I said "their number reduced." Do you not remember the thousands of layoff industry wide the years following deregulation?

 

[BoeingBoy]

It wouldn't surprise me if there are now 3x as many airline employees in the US today than there were in 1979. I'll have to dig, but IIRC, AMR only had around 30-35,000 employees in 1980, and maybe 200-250 aircraft.

I think the 3x might be high, but the problem is that the BTS data available online only goes back to 1990, when there were ~24,000 more FTE airline employees than now (Aug 1990 vs Aug 2010). What I don't doubt is that there are probably at least as many FTE airline employees now as in 1979 - just look at WN, FedEx, and UPS and the number of airline employees they've added since then - never mind the growth of the express-type operators since 1979. WN was still small (basically a within Texas carrier), FedEx was a fraction the size it is now (MEM was their only hub and no bigger than what they'll open in GSO soon) and UPS didn't even operate it's own aircraft in 1979. I do suspect that the network passenger carriers have no more employees now than in 1979 and probably less - domestically they've just given up too much market share to lcc's and regionals which more than offsets any overall growth in international ops.

I do expect that the relative number of network carrier employees compared to 1979 will vary by employee group. Outsourcing of maintenance to MRO's, flying to regionals, etc affect different employee groups differently. The growth of FedEx/UPS added pilots but not FA's. Etc. And of course there's the question of defining an "airline employee" when it comes to the big freight carriers - is the delivery truck driver an airline employee or not? How about all the people at the sort facilities world-wide - are they the equivalent of the agents/rampers/etc at the passenger hubs or merely freight workers?

Jim

 

[eolesen]

I said "their number reduced." Do you not remember the thousands of layoff industry wide the years following deregulation?

Sure I do. The brunt of the losses were at airlines who had cost structures that didn't reflect their income.

And while it didn't equalize immediately, for every airline that went out of business, there was a startup who took its place, or a major airline who grew proportionately.

I stand by the original point -- deregulation has created more airline jobs than were lost. Technology has caused some losses (e.g. ticket agents and res agents being made obsolete because of kiosks, ecommerce), and offshoring has hit you guys somewhat, but in general, there are still more airline jobs in 2010 than there were in 1979.

 

[MCI transplant]

<_< ------- e is right, there are more jobs, But the general population has increased also, and the number of people and aircraft flying!

 

[FWAAA]

<_< ------- e is right, there are more jobs, But the general population has increased also, and the number of people and aircraft flying!

The growth in airlines and the growth in the number of people flying between 1979 and now far outpaced the increase in population during that same period.

Deregulation has put a crimp in the income and job security of employees of legacy airlines but it has opened the door to airline employment for hundreds of thousands of people who were hired at airlines in the past 31 years.

 

[Hopeful]

The growth in airlines and the growth in the number of people flying between 1979 and now far outpaced the increase in population during that same period.

Deregulation has put a crimp in the income and job security of employees of legacy airlines but it has opened the door to airline employment for hundreds of thousands of people who were hired at airlines in the past 31 years.

The fact that airline jobs may have increased because of deregulation may be true, but the airline worker continues to be at the mercy of the airline's "high labor cost" assualt.
After all, no company adds more jobs than Wal*Mart.....Just because they hire alot of people, do not forget the circumstances under which they work.
The same holds true for airline workers who are the ones to continually adjust everytime airlines cry they're losing money or aren't as profitable as they want to be.

 

[WorldTraveler]

During the past 10 years, the airline industry has lost 1/3 of its jobs and it has come almost largely from the network carrier segment although there have been bankruptcies of smaller airlines as well.

The simple reason why the US airline industry has lost so many jobs is because it is far more productive than it was 10 years ago. UA which had one of the largest employent drops, is now producing 2 1/2 times more seat miles per employee than they did ten years ago. AA has cut almost 25% of its employees which is second only to CO which dramatically cut its workforce during its bankruptcies that occurred more than 10 years ago and CO has largely been able to add capacity because of its increased productivity - thus its employee count is largely unchanged.

Of the network carriers that filed for bankruptcy in the past decade, the order of reduction is DL at about 35%, NW about 40%, and UA and US both near 50%.

So, AA has actually done better than its network peers other than CO but those other carriers are now more productive than AA which is why AA has a labor cost problem. AA employees don't make less on average per employee but AA produces less seat miles with the same number of employees compared to its peers.

And lest you think that only the network carriers are becoming more productive, WN has added less than 25% more employees over the past decade despite more than doubling the amount of seat miles produced.

Network airlines have been battling lower cost, more productive competitors for decades and there appears to be no let up in sight.

The only way network carrier employees are going to recover what they have given up is when network carriers are making profits SUPERIOR to their low cost peers and their revenue is growing faster than it is at their low cost peers. Since that has not happened YET in the US industry, the likelihood that US network airline employees will recover what they have given up is slim to none.