Attrition at US and AWA

[Callsign_Cactus]

Assuming age 60 remains, over the next 5 years (01/07 - 12/12) US will retire approximately 1358 pilots out of 4824 (28%), of which only 54% (738) are actually captain positions. The remaining are FOs (379) and FUR (241).

Over the same period AWA will retire roughly 303 pilots out of 1853 (16%), of which 277 (91%) are captains. The remaining are FOs (26) since we have no one on furlough.

These numbers are rough and I could be off by a few percentage points but I know its close enough for me to draw some conclusions. The East does have a lot of retirements but a good chunk of them occupy FO or furloughed positions so let’s just disregard them completely. Correct me if I'm wrong, but a simple retirement ratio comparison should tell all.

US retires 738 captains out of 4824 pilots, which equals 15 % captain attrition (upgrade opportunity). AWA retires 277 captains out of 1853 pilots, which equals 15% captain attrition.

Maybe my logic is wrong, but I don't think it is if we are focusing strictly on upgrade opportunities. Bottom line, AWA brought just as much meaningful attrition to the party as US. The AWARD was not only fair to the East, in may even be a windfall at West's expense if you consider the pay bumps etc. gained by a joint contract, and the stagnation the west has experienced. Many pilots on the west lost all upgrade opportunity 2 years ago while the east have had many.

 

[Mike]

Assuming age 60 remains, over the next 5 years (01/07 - 12/12) US will retire approximately 1358 pilots out of 4824 (28%), of which only 54% (738) are actually captain positions. The remaining are FOs (379) and FUR (241).

Over the same period AWA will retire roughly 303 pilots out of 1853 (16%), of which 277 (91%) are captains. The remaining are FOs (26) since we have no one on furlough.

These numbers are rough and I could be off by a few percentage points but I know its close enough for me to draw some conclusions. The East does have a lot of retirements but a good chunk of them occupy FO or furloughed positions so let’s just disregard them completely. Correct me if I'm wrong, but a simple retirement ratio comparison should tell all.

US retires 738 captains out of 4824 pilots, which equals 15 % captain attrition (upgrade opportunity). AWA retires 277 captains out of 1853 pilots, which equals 15% captain attrition.

Maybe my logic is wrong, but I don't think it is if we are focusing strictly on upgrade opportunities. Bottom line, AWA brought just as much meaningful attrition to the party as US. The AWARD was not only fair to the East, in may even be a windfall at West's expense if you consider the pay bumps etc. gained by a joint contract, and the stagnation the west has experienced. Many pilots on the west lost all upgrade opportunity 2 years ago while the east have had many.

I dont understand where your finding 4800 something US Pilots. The last bid only listed around 2618 active pilots on the property in the East.

 

[BoeingBoy]

I dont understand where your finding 4800 something US Pilots. The last bid only listed around 2100 active pilots on the property in the East.

4800+ is the number of pilots on the East seniority list (exact number depends on which list you look at). The last East bid had 2618 line pilot positions. Add in the active pilots that don't hold a line position (ck airmen, base equip managers, chief pilots, etc) and I think there's something over 3000 active East pilots.

Jim

 

[EastUS]

US retires 738 captains. AWA retires 277 captains out of 1853 pilots,

Bottom line, AWA brought just as much meaningful attrition to the party as US.

Even using your own numbers...Is this some kind of "new math?" Have you ever tried to bid some "percentage" of a seat?

 

[BoeingBoy]

Have you ever tried to bid some "percentage" of a seat?

It's akin to bidding the seat left open when a pilot retires while on furlough....

Jim

 

[Bud8EE]

It's akin to bidding the seat left open when a pilot retires while on furlough....

Jim

So by all rights a merger policy which doesn't provide a windfall and maintains pre merger expectations should produce 738 pilots off the East list upgrading to Captain and 277 off the West list. The same breakdown goes for line holder positions and access to premium equipment and so on and so forth. Likewise future mergers should not continue to impact progression to these positions. This doesn't even come close to that. DOH, with condition and restriction is the only method that does.

 

[autofixer]

Also it is not only about the left seat. When you have been here 20 years and most of it on reserve or bottom blockholder, just moving up the list to get weekends and holidays off is a big deal. That is what the attrition for some or most of those F/Os is all about. Quality of life is really much more important than money. Maybe after 20 years or so at this crappy business, this will become evident.

 

[Piedmont1984]

Assuming age 60 remains, over the next 5 years (01/07 - 12/12) US will retire approximately 1358 pilots out of 4824 (28%), of which only 54% (738) are actually captain positions. The remaining are FOs (379) and FUR (241).

Over the same period AWA will retire roughly 303 pilots out of 1853 (16%), of which 277 (91%) are captains. The remaining are FOs (26) since we have no one on furlough.

These numbers are rough and I could be off by a few percentage points but I know its close enough for me to draw some conclusions. The East does have a lot of retirements but a good chunk of them occupy FO or furloughed positions so let’s just disregard them completely. Correct me if I'm wrong, but a simple retirement ratio comparison should tell all.

US retires 738 captains out of 4824 pilots, which equals 15 % captain attrition (upgrade opportunity). AWA retires 277 captains out of 1853 pilots, which equals 15% captain attrition.

Maybe my logic is wrong, but I don't think it is if we are focusing strictly on upgrade opportunities. Bottom line, AWA brought just as much meaningful attrition to the party as US. The AWARD was not only fair to the East, in may even be a windfall at West's expense if you consider the pay bumps etc. gained by a joint contract, and the stagnation the west has experienced. Many pilots on the west lost all upgrade opportunity 2 years ago while the east have had many.

The problem with your logic, whether you use raw numbers or percentages, is that the bulk of those 738 captain slots now will go to West pilots. Its even worse if you project 10 years out. The East F/O's do not have enough time left to recoup what the award took from them.

 

[BoeingBoy]

Quality of life is really much more important than money.

There is that E190 right seat, then. The one's that'll be replacing the 737's....

Jim

 

[autofixer]

There is that E190 right seat, then. The one's that'll be replacing the 737's....

Jim

Good point. That ought to be a strike issue, but I doubt we'll ever get around to that.

 

[A320 Driver]

There is that E190 right seat, then. The one's that'll be replacing the 737's....

Jim

Hey Jim,

I just got some intel regarding the widebody conditions and restrictions. It appears the Merger committees and the ALPA executive committee agree that the protected positions on the widebodies are for named pilots, not 517 slots. Also, I tried to send you a spreadsheet with all the DOHs and DOBs on it, but I couldn't get it to go through. I'll try again later if you are interested.

Later,

A320 Driver B)

 

[midnightmech]

STRIKE ISSUE??? are you out of your f'in mind? Cant even get a weak little program to fly/operate safe in this stressful enviornment going....much less ANY kind of concerted ' get your attention ' type of work ethic going...and this is for ALL the groups, be it ALPA, IAM, AFA, TWU, or wnyone else....hahaha

 

[CactusFlyr]

The problem with your logic, whether you use raw numbers or percentages, is that the bulk of those 738 captain slots now will go to West pilots. Its even worse if you project 10 years out. The East F/O's do not have enough time left to recoup what the award took from them.

You guys act like you were going to be around, in a week.

 

[Bud8EE]

You guys act like you were going to be around, in a week.

So you agree its a land grab, and to justify it in your mind you play god like you know what was going to happen.

 

[Hawkhunter]

You guys act like you were going to be around, in a week.

I just love post from you idiots that actually think AWA is such a great company. AWA was always the last choice to go to work for because it is and was a #### airline. Did I mention it started with scabs and still scabbed not long ago. Show me one bit of evidence that shows AAA was going to go Chapter 7. I am done posting on here so see you out east. I just hope you loud mouthed pricks run your mouth. You will all be treated like #### so come on down. You know we got screwed and you know you got a windfall. Sugar coat it all you want but we will NEVER allow you to steal our jobs. Come on big mouth come east and act like a pr&^k .