" Dear Fellow Employees "

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Just got my recent flagship news, and this is what I read, on the front cover.

"Dear fellow employees,

As 2003 draws to a close, I want to wish you all the very best during this holiday season, and throughout the year to come. "

"While 2003 is a year I know many of us will be glad to put behind us," (So far, so good)

_____________________________________________________________

"I HOPE WE CAN ALL TAKE "P R I D E" AND FIND "ENCOURAGEMENT" IN THE "MANY THINGS" WE'VE "A C O M P L I S H E D" TOGETHER.

I had all I could do to keep from from VOMITING on my flagship news !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Do these "charlatan's" from HDQ actually believe this "Intelligence INSULTING" ####, or do they privately say to themselves "well if we can get the majority of our employees from TEXAS and OKLAHOMA do believe this "stuff" then we wont worry about the "other" people" ?????

NH/BB's

 

[planemech669]

Can definitely tell that you are only concerned with yourself NH/BB.
It's definitely a "touchy feel good" message, but it's just window dressing and if you can't realize that and see the bigger picture then I feel sorry for you in your little "Jerry Springer" world.

There is enough fertilizer on the field. Don't need any more of yours there as well.

 

[Bob Owens]

Can definitely tell that you are only concerned with yourself NH/BB.
It's definitely a "touchy feel good" message, but it's just window dressing and if you can't realize that and see the bigger picture then I feel sorry for you in your little "Jerry Springer" world.

There is enough fertilizer on the field. Don't need any more of yours there as well.

Ah yes the mysterious "Big Picture", much like the Emporers New clothes, you cant see them because you are not "sophisticated like me".

Ah yes its right there dont you see it? Surely you must see how grand the "Big Picture" is.

Sorry, we dont see it, humor us mere mortals and tell us about "The Big Picture"!

 

[planemech669]

All right here it is:

The aviation industry is not just in a slump, it's drowning. If you are in it now you are here realisticly for only one of two reasons;

a.) you like it, inspite of all it's pitfalls over the last 3 years.

b.) you're stuck in it because you can't find anything that's better.

If you're an 'a' person, buck up, stop your belly achin' and remember why you got into this business in the first place. The economy is a cyclical beast and by it's own nature has to either turn up or die. If it dies, more than just you and I are going to be hurting. Also remind yourself that corporations are businesses NOT democracies and business is business, nothing more.

If you're an 'b' person, I highly recomend that you find something else to do. Even if it means selling cars, flipping burgers selling insurance whatever. There are many careers that generate a better living than the airlines, find one let those of us that are in it for the love of it be in peace.

I'm in it because I enjoy fixing planes. I may not like the politcal crap that goes on here, but I'll put up with it to get my 'fix'.

 

[Bob Owens]

All right here it is:

The aviation industry is not just in a slump, it's drowning. If you are in it now you are here realisticly for only one of two reasons;

a.) you like it, inspite of all it's pitfalls over the last 3 years.

b.) you're stuck in it because you can't find anything that's better.

If you're an 'a' person, buck up, stop your belly achin' and remember why you got into this business in the first place. The economy is a cyclical beast and by it's own nature has to either turn up or die. If it dies, more than just you and I are going to be hurting. Also remind yourself that corporations are businesses NOT democracies and business is business, nothing more.

If you're an 'b' person, I highly recomend that you find something else to do. Even if it means selling cars, flipping burgers selling insurance whatever. There are many careers that generate a better living than the airlines, find one let those of us that are in it for the love of it be in peace.

I'm in it because I enjoy fixing planes. I may not like the politcal crap that goes on here, but I'll put up with it to get my 'fix'.

Is it drowning? Or are they just using the current downturn in order to secure long term concessions and other savings?

Has passenger traffic really fallen off that much? People dont fly to take airplane rides, they fly to get somewhere, air fares are just one component of the cost of travelling, and people are still travelling. SWA and Jet Blue only have so many airplanes, they cant fly everyone, and if they could, and still pay everyone better than AA then maybe AA should be let to die off so better run companies can expand and hire us. In the long run we would be better off to get with a company that has a successful business plan than to subsidize one that doesnt with pay cuts and concessions.


Are the airlines losing money? They say they are. They said that they lost $988 million last year in "Goodwill" alone. Thats nearly a third of what they claimed to have "lost". Funny how you can lose "goodwill" but you cant buy much with it? Who got that "Goodwill" that AA wrote off? Did AA pay Tax on that "Goodwill" when they got it?

How about those prepaid leases they mention in the 10K? If I prepay my mortgage can I then claim that I'm broke and get out of paying everyone else?

How about accellerated depreciation?

The fact is that in this business sometimes it pays to lose money. Inflate your losses, concentrate them into one year, hit the panic button and sucker all your workers and other creditors into giving Long Term concessions to deal with a short term problem that may be as tangible as "Goodwill".

We have been down this road before. Remember 1992? The industry was on its way out. It was "drowning". They claimed to have lost more money in that year than they made in its entire existance. That was also the year they changed the rules governing depreciation and allowed accellerated depreciation. Funny how they went from the brink of extinction right into record profits. Thats like jumping out bed from the ICU to winning the marathon! Would you think the patient was faking it? It happened in 1983 also.

The fact is we were scamed, again. The industry is not going to dissappear. Even if the government had to reregulate or subsidize, like they do mass transit and Amtrack, planes will still be flying. If the President cant allow any one of the major airlines to strike-citing its broad economic impact, how could he then let them shut down simply because they were not profitable?

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

All right here it is:

The aviation industry is not just in a slump, it's drowning. If you are in it now you are here realisticly for only one of two reasons;

a.) you like it, inspite of all it's pitfalls over the last 3 years.

b.) you're stuck in it because you can't find anything that's better.

If you're an 'a' person, buck up, stop your belly achin' and remember why you got into this business in the first place. The economy is a cyclical beast and by it's own nature has to either turn up or die. If it dies, more than just you and I are going to be hurting. Also remind yourself that corporations are businesses NOT democracies and business is business, nothing more.

If you're an 'b' person, I highly recomend that you find something else to do. Even if it means selling cars, flipping burgers selling insurance whatever. There are many careers that generate a better living than the airlines, find one let those of us that are in it for the love of it be in peace.

I'm in it because I enjoy fixing planes. I may not like the politcal crap that goes on here, but I'll put up with it to get my 'fix'.

planemech669;

You Don't have to answer my "direct" question to you(I firmly support your right to privacy), But let me take a "shot" anyway.

A. Your a nAAtive AA AMT(who not too pissed off at taking a 17.5% pay cut.)

B. Your a LLC AMT that despite the concessions, is making more than when you
were TWA.


planesmech669,
Am I close ??

A or B ??

NH/BB's

 

[orwell]

All right here it is:

The aviation industry is not just in a slump, it's drowning. If you are in it now you are here realisticly for only one of two reasons;

a.) you like it, inspite of all it's pitfalls over the last 3 years.

b.) you're stuck in it because you can't find anything that's better.

If you're an 'a' person, buck up, stop your belly achin' and remember why you got into this business in the first place. The economy is a cyclical beast and by it's own nature has to either turn up or die. If it dies, more than just you and I are going to be hurting. Also remind yourself that corporations are businesses NOT democracies and business is business, nothing more.

If you're an 'b' person, I highly recomend that you find something else to do. Even if it means selling cars, flipping burgers selling insurance whatever. There are many careers that generate a better living than the airlines, find one let those of us that are in it for the love of it be in peace.

I'm in it because I enjoy fixing planes. I may not like the politcal crap that goes on here, but I'll put up with it to get my 'fix'.

Thanks for providing a spark of reason in a forum usually pitch-black with ignorance.

 

[orwell]

Has passenger traffic really fallen off that much? People dont fly to take airplane rides, they fly to get somewhere, air fares are just one component of the cost of travelling, and people are still travelling. SWA and Jet Blue only have so many airplanes, they cant fly everyone, and if they could, and still pay everyone better than AA then maybe AA should be let to die off so better run companies can expand and hire us. In the long run we would be better off to get with a company that has a successful business plan than to subsidize one that doesnt with pay cuts and concessions.

I know we'd all like to believe that this is just another "down" cycle. You mention that B6 and WN only have "so many planes." That's just it - they don't need that many, and in any case they are growing like cancerous weeds, and will only acquire more and more.

Example - perhaps you've heard the saying if you add a cup of wine to a barrel of sewage, you get a barrel of sewage. But, if you add a cup of sewage to a barrel of wine, you still get a barrel of sewage! That's the effect of the commodity carriers - they enter a market with one 737 and offer fares lower than their passengers' IQs. A major like AA may have 10 flights a day, but that one (soon to be two and more) flight by the commodity carrier is all it takes to remind passengers that cheap air travel is a constitutional right.

The consumer is told by the media every day that the low cost carriers are their saviors and the "legacy carriers" like AA are aging dinosaurs that can't adapt and are doomed for extinction. Passengers literally delight in spending 3 hours on the internet to save $5.00 on a fare. Their stinginess cannot be overestimated. This is a PR problem as much as it is an economical one.

Therefore, while you may think this "downturn" is just a ruse by management to get concessions, it isn't. I wish it were, that you were right. You could always go on strike when "times get better" if you were. But this problem isn't going away. This is an age where blue 'tater chips, television and junk fares are what, in the customer's mind, defines quality air travel.

The only thing that could change this is if UA or AA go down the toilet, along with one of the next three biggest (CO, US or DL.) That would buy the surivors some more time - but would not be the ultimate solution. There are too many airlines in a country that has the most spoiled consumers imaginable.

 

[Bob Owens]

Has passenger traffic really fallen off that much? People dont fly to take airplane rides, they fly to get somewhere, air fares are just one component of the cost of travelling, and people are still travelling. SWA and Jet Blue only have so many airplanes, they cant fly everyone, and if they could, and still pay everyone better than AA then maybe AA should be let to die off so better run companies can expand and hire us. In the long run we would be better off to get with a company that has a successful business plan than to subsidize one that doesnt with pay cuts and concessions.

I know we'd all like to believe that this is just another "down" cycle. You mention that B6 and WN only have "so many planes." That's just it - they don't need that many, and in any case they are growing like cancerous weeds, and will only acquire more and more.

Example - perhaps you've heard the saying if you add a cup of wine to a barrel of sewage, you get a barrel of sewage. But, if you add a cup of sewage to a barrel of wine, you still get a barrel of sewage! That's the effect of the commodity carriers - they enter a market with one 737 and offer fares lower than their passengers' IQs. A major like AA may have 10 flights a day, but that one (soon to be two and more) flight by the commodity carrier is all it takes to remind passengers that cheap air travel is a constitutional right.

The consumer is told by the media every day that the low cost carriers are their saviors and the "legacy carriers" like AA are aging dinosaurs that can't adapt and are doomed for extinction. Passengers literally delight in spending 3 hours on the internet to save $5.00 on a fare. Their stinginess cannot be overestimated. This is a PR problem as much as it is an economical one.

Therefore, while you may think this "downturn" is just a ruse by management to get concessions, it isn't. I wish it were, that you were right. You could always go on strike when "times get better" if you were. But this problem isn't going away. This is an age where blue 'tater chips, television and junk fares are what, in the customer's mind, defines quality air travel.

The only thing that could change this is if UA or AA go down the toilet, along with one of the next three biggest (CO, US or DL.) That would buy the surivors some more time - but would not be the ultimate solution. There are too many airlines in a country that has the most spoiled consumers imaginable.

This is at least my third time around.

Remember Freddy Laker? His "Skytrain" was the wave of the future. All the majors were going to dissappear along with First and business class. People wanted cheap airfares and who ver could give it was going to be the one who survived.

Laker is long gone.

Remember Peoples Express? A replay of Freddy Laker.

Peoples Express is long gone.


So now we have Jet Blue. But according to you "this" is different. Well Laker was different than Peoples who was different than Capitol who was different from Air Florida who was different from New York Air and so on. The one thing they have in common is that once the majors got tired of them they ran them right out of business.

The more things change the more they stay the same.

Jet Blue can fill their plane 100%, and AA can make sure that they fill it 100% at a loss. Jet Blue can buy another airplane but can they buy 700 more airplanes and go head to head with AA on every route? AA can afford to match or beat JET Blue at a loss and make it up on one of their other routes. So even if AA is losing say $100,000 a month vs Jet Blues $50,000 who will run out of cash first? If Jet Blue is losing money on all of its routes and AA is only losing money on the routes that match Jet Blue's it stands to reason that AA will outlast Jet Blue even if they are losing more money.

 

[orwell]

This is at least my third time around.

Remember Freddy Laker? His "Skytrain" was the wave of the future. All the majors were going to dissappear along with First and business class. People wanted cheap airfares and who ver could give it was going to be the one who survived.

Laker is long gone.

Remember Peoples Express? A replay of Freddy Laker.

Peoples Express is long gone.


So now we have Jet Blue. But according to you "this" is different. Well Laker was different than Peoples who was different than Capitol who was different from Air Florida who was different from New York Air and so on. The one thing they have in common is that once the majors got tired of them they ran them right out of business.

The more things change the more they stay the same.

Jet Blue can fill their plane 100%, and AA can make sure that they fill it 100% at a loss. Jet Blue can buy another airplane but can they buy 700 more airplanes and go head to head with AA on every route? AA can afford to match or beat JET Blue at a loss and make it up on one of their other routes. So even if AA is losing say $100,000 a month vs Jet Blues $50,000 who will run out of cash first? If Jet Blue is losing money on all of its routes and AA is only losing money on the routes that match Jet Blue's it stands to reason that AA will outlast Jet Blue even if they are losing more money.

What can I say...other than I hope you're right and I'm wrong. However, I'd be willing to bet you any amount of money that Jet Blue will be around in 10 years - unless they merge with someone.

I also remember when people referred to Air Tran as "the airline formerly known as Value Jet" and when it flew exlusively DC9s that were 5 decades old. Today, they have one of the newest fleets in the industry, are making money in DELTA's HUB city, and are among the heroes championed on a daily basis by the pandering media.

I also know that Peoples Express didn't bother with any semblance of a revenue mgmt. system, and there were occasions where they had no idea how many seats they'd sold on one of their flights and had to turn away an entire terminal's worth of passengers at Newark.

I also believe - and I'm confident you'll quickly correct me if I'm wrong - that no start-up carrier has been as profitable as quickly as Jet Blue. I would think that's another indication, along with the fact that they were just ridiculously capitalized to begin with, that they're different than the standard flash in the pan.

Customers have been brainwashed into thinking that TV and a far lower than their IQ are the only benchmarks when considering air travel. This is a sea change event. The days are gone when they thought that travelling with an established name meant safer, more dignified travel. Now, they show up in their sweat pants and flip flops and regard the experience as nothing more than a bus trip.

Finally - the biggest difference and one which you've conveniently ignored - is the internet. When Peoples Express, Laker etc. were around, passengers were largely in the dark with respect to fare comparisons. They'd have to make a million phone calls to argue with a million res agents to get the info they can see now in a second on travelocity, orbitz etc. When someone is staring at a $2000 fare next to one for $199, they're going to choose the $199 every time - probably even when spending someone else's money (read business travel.)

 

[Checking it Out]

One thing you can count on is change. The big airline's of yesterday have no choice but to adapt. If they don't than we all will be going by the way of Eastern.

Is the business model of AA, Delta, United out dated? From my perspective it may be and needs to be fixed.