Election 2014: 28 Weeks Remaining

[eolesen]

From RealClearPolitics.

In the Senate, Republicans currently lead in safe and leaning seats, with just four of the seven toss-ups needed to take control:

Not much point in posting the House right now -- the Democrats would need to pick up 31 seats to regain control, and they'd have to win every toss-up plus 15 other races which lean GOP. That's highly unlikely right now.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Dont Ever count Mary Landrieu out !
That gal is like a cat with 9 lives.
I'd laugh my BALLS off if it winds up in a tie,....with Amtraks favorite son....Joe B. casting a **** load of tie breaking votes !

 

[eolesen]

Perhaps, but even HuffNPuff is saying 62% probability that Landrieu loses by 2-5 points.

My guess is Louisiana is the last race decided: there is no primary, so short of a 50.1% showing, there will be a runoff in December.

 

[777 fixer]

Not much point in posting the House right now -- the Democrats would need to pick up 31 seats to regain control, and they'd have to win every toss-up plus 15 other races which lean GOP. That's highly unlikely right now.

 
That will probably be the case till the 2020 census, maybe.

 

[700UW]

 

[delldude]

 
All but one are a toss up....one leaning Dem. Toss ups will go GOP.

 

[eolesen]

Interesting that 700's graphic left off Georgia, Arkansas, Kansas and Louisiana.

It's also based on old data.

Last few polls have IA and CO as a tie. Those should have been safe states for the DNC.

AK shows GOP up by 6 in the last poll, which was around Labor Day.

I suspect NC is also closer than it looks. The Libertarian candidate has the margin between the GOP and DNC. The numbers he has now as protest votes may shift to the GOP as we get closer to election day.

KS is also a question mark. If the DNC's candidate is indeed removed from the ballot, it's hard to tell how the election will shift. Dems might stay home, or they could vote against the GOP.

It's also not very clear if Orman wins who he'd caucus with. If there are a solid 50 GOP seats, King (ME-I) has already indicated he might shift to caucus with the Republicans, so it's possible that Orman may do that as well.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

You may want to wait until the actual election E. Your track record is not very good on election predictions.

 

[eolesen]

All I'm doing is reading the polls, Glenn. I leave the predictions to the guys analysing the raw data.

 

[delldude]

The political pendulum is swinging the other way.

 

[La Li Lu Le Lo]

The political pendulum is swinging the other way.

How could it not after the Obama circus?

 

[SparrowHawk]

Just this once I'm going to play Peerless Prognosticator.
 
As part of my new "career" I rub elbows with a great many lower and middle class workers and in many cases their families.
 
There seems to be more than a little pent up frustration with ALL of Washington. I was working "In da hood" today and I think the bloom is off the rose with Barack Obama. I get a sense of people feeling like they've been had. One of the proofs of this is that currently the Libertarian Party is experiencing growth in registrations.
 
Somebody is going to get an Eric Cantor like spanking at the polls. Right now my money is on the Democrats [SIZE=13.63636302948px]getting B*tch slapped by the voters. I can see them losing even more seats in the HoR and losing control of the Senate. People have given up on Obama, he is a "Spent Cartridge.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=13.63636302948px]Keep in mind my Crystal ball was made in China and I bought it at Wal-Mart.[/SIZE]

 

[delldude]

Just this once I'm going to play Peerless Prognosticator.
 
As part of my new "career" I rub elbows with a great many lower and middle class workers and in many cases their families.
 
There seems to be more than a little pent up frustration with ALL of Washington. I was working "In da hood" today and I think the bloom is off the rose with Barack Obama. I get a sense of people feeling like they've been had. One of the proofs of this is that currently the Libertarian Party is experiencing growth in registrations.
 
Somebody is going to get an Eric Cantor like spanking at the polls. Right now my money is on the Democrats [SIZE=13.63636302948px]getting B*tch slapped by the voters. I can see them losing even more seats in the HoR and losing control of the Senate. People have given up on Obama, he is a "Spent Cartridge.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=13.63636302948px]Keep in mind my Crystal ball was made in China and I bought it at Wal-Mart.[/SIZE]

 
It comes with a no questions asked return policy.

 

[700UW]

 

[SparrowHawk]

A stupid and uneducated message. Nothing more than an appeal to vote for an ever more tyranical Federal Government.
 
Women, Children, gays do NOT have rights. There is no such think as group rights. Only Natural Law and rights defined in the COTUS.
 
You lower student by getting out of the student loan business. Only problem with that is that you can not discharge student loan debt guaranteeing the jack booted thugs of government a revenue stream.
 
How do you vote for peace when all majopr party candidates support a policy of intervention? How does that work?
 
You don't vote for a union. You join one or help form one.
 
This could go one forever but "Person of Interest" is coming on soon.