Every 8 days

[eolesen]

I think you're underestimating the supply a bit.

During the last 8 years, anyone who was looking at trade school was also probably looking at the military.

With the current administration continuing to shrink the military presence overseas, there are a lot of guys currently on active duty who will be coming out against their will, but could qualify for their A&P in a shortened timeframe. As recruitment quotas drop (which they have already under Obama according to my son's USMC recruiter), those who can't go into the military or college will inevitably start entering trade schools again.

Don't forget to add in the mechanics sidelined over the past 8-10 years because of maintenance downsizing, and are perhaps under-employed elsewhere.

You couldn't replace an entire airline's worth of mechanics overnight, but it wouldn't be out of the question to do so within 18-24 months. There's also the option of an airline or a MRO setting up their own apprentice/certification programs.

 

[aapitbull]

I think you're underestimating the supply a bit.

During the last 8 years, anyone who was looking at trade school was also probably looking at the military.

With the current administration continuing to shrink the military presence overseas, there are a lot of guys currently on active duty who will be coming out against their will, but could qualify for their A&P in a shortened timeframe. As recruitment quotas drop (which they have already under Obama according to my son's USMC recruiter), those who can't go into the military or college will inevitably start entering trade schools again.

Don't forget to add in the mechanics sidelined over the past 8-10 years because of maintenance downsizing, and are perhaps under-employed elsewhere.

You couldn't replace an entire airline's worth of mechanics overnight, but it wouldn't be out of the question to do so within 18-24 months. There's also the option of an airline or a MRO setting up their own apprentice/certification programs.

What you guys are not taking into account in all this is maintenance as a whole cars, facilities, railroads etc are all in need of replacement mechanics hell in alot of places if you can run a C&C machine or a mill you can make 100,000 a year no problem. As far as replacing all of us in 18 to 24 months shows you know nothing about how long it takes for a mechanic to become competent enough to be allowed to work the flghtline alone.

 

[FWAAA]

AA lists their costs at an average of around $27/hr.

Source? Link? Anything?

AA's average maintenance costs far exceed $27/hr. I'm not talking about average wages - I'm talking about average costs to AA and that includes wages, benefits and supervision. $50/hr is probably a bit low.

 

[Bob Owens]

Source? Link? Anything?

AA's average maintenance costs far exceed $27/hr. I'm not talking about average wages - I'm talking about average costs to AA and that includes wages, benefits and supervision. $50/hr is probably a bit low.

Maybe their maintenance costs but not their maintenance labor costs. We dont have any say in putting in new OH bins, winglets and seats. You seem to be forgetting that the AMT is at the top of the list, we have people under our contract that get raises (and food stamps) due to local minimum wage ordinances. Source would be the staffing sheets that the company releases. Ask one of your management friends for a copy.

Supervision? We should be expected to factor in costs that we have absolutely no control over? While AA has eliminated around 5000 jobs in our contract group they have kept management at around the same as it was. One example is regional directors, they just made another one to replace one who passed away but years ago they had one for the whole East Coast and we had more workers, and more stations back then.

 

[FWAAA]

Maybe their maintenance costs but not their maintenance labor costs. We dont have any say in putting in new OH bins, winglets and seats.

I'm talking about heavy overhaul, Bob, where all bins and seats are removed and then replaced. All of that labor is part of a heavy overhaul, no?

You seem to be forgetting that the AMT is at the top of the list, we have people under our contract that get raises (and food stamps) due to local minimum wage ordinances. Source would be the staffing sheets that the company releases. Ask one of your management friends for a copy.

No, Bob, I covered that rather completely in post #98. The blended $50/hr estimate takes into account license holders, the cheaper nonlicensed OSMs and management cost of supervising the employees engaged in overhauling an airplane. TUL employs plenty of people who don't touch airplanes or airplane parts and probably don't get their hands dirty. If TUL were shut down and all overhaul sent to MROs, all of those employees could be let go, no doubt saving a few hundred million dollars a year.

A simplistic way to figure out the average labor expense of overhauling an AA airplane at TUL would be to divide the total TUL payroll by the number of airplanes overhauled in a typical year. Of course, that would overstate the true costs, since TUL does a lot more than heavy C checks.

Supervision? We should be expected to factor in costs that we have absolutely no control over?

Yes, since nobody on the planet employs mechanics to overhaul an airplane and then doesn't supervise them. Whether that overhaul is done in Tulsa or somewhere else by a third party MRO, managers will be paid to supervise the employees. In estimating the labor costs of overhauling an airplane, the TUL management expenses certainly play a part.

While AA has eliminated around 5000 jobs in our contract group they have kept management at around the same as it was. One example is regional directors, they just made another one to replace one who passed away but years ago they had one for the whole East Coast and we had more workers, and more stations back then.

Yes, Bob, AA's management is bloated and expensive - that's a given. I covered that in post #98 as well. When WN sends its planes to MROs for overhaul, its expenses include the cost of the third party MRO's management as well as the mechanics. When AA overhauls a plane at TUL, the cost includes AA's maintenance management costs as well. Ignoring AA's management costs would result in an unrealistically low estimate of the true costs of overhauling an airplane in TUL. That might serve your interests and certainly the interests of those in TUL, but it doesn't reflect reality.

 

[Bob Owens]

I'm talking about heavy overhaul, Bob, where all bins and seats are removed and then replaced. All of that labor is part of a heavy overhaul, no?

Yes and so is that Mod work.

A simplistic way to figure out the average labor expense of overhauling an AA airplane at TUL would be to divide the total TUL payroll by the number of airplanes overhauled in a typical year. Of course, that would overstate the true costs, since TUL does a lot more than heavy C checks.

Simplistic yes, but wrong because you would not be able to factor out MRO work. For instnace TEASEL does huge amounts of 3P work for other carriers.

Yes, Bob, AA's management is bloated and expensive - that's a given. I covered that in post #98 as well. When WN sends its planes to MROs for overhaul, its expenses include the cost of the third party MRO's management as well as the mechanics. When AA overhauls a plane at TUL, the cost includes AA's maintenance management costs as well. Ignoring AA's management costs would result in an unrealistically low estimate of the true costs of overhauling an airplane in TUL. That might serve your interests and certainly the interests of those in TUL, but it doesn't reflect reality.

Since when have you been concerned with reality? Reality its something that isnt always reported and cant always be measured, such as the time it takes to undo the mess when they come back from these chop shops. Like I said its a small industry and mechanics talk to each other. The FAA knows about it but they turn a blind eye. If they really wanted to police the work they would look at a plane before it gets sent out and look at it when it comes back(since they cant show up unannounced). As far as ignoring management costs like I said they control that, dont include it as something I have to compare to, just like when they say that MROs pay $25/hr while AA pays up to $32/hr, they dont include what they pay the MRO.

 

[telebender1956]

Yes and so is that Mod work.




Simplistic yes, but wrong because you would not be able to factor out MRO work. For instnace TEASEL does huge amounts of 3P work for other carriers.





Since when have you been concerned with reality? Reality its something that isnt always reported and cant always be measured, such as the time it takes to undo the mess when they come back from these chop shops. Like I said its a small industry and mechanics talk to each other. The FAA knows about it but they turn a blind eye. If they really wanted to police the work they would look at a plane before it gets sent out and look at it when it comes back(since they cant show up unannounced). As far as ignoring management costs like I said they control that, dont include it as something I have to compare to, just like when they say that MROs pay $25/hr while AA pays up to $32/hr, they dont include what they pay the MRO.

Yeah, we AMT's @ TULE had to fix a FEDEX B727 that had been converted from a PAX hauler to Freighter at one of them "cheaper" MRO's. EVERY FLOOR BEAM in the main cabin had serious mechanical damage[DEEP CUT MARKS] from improper use of cutting tools. A 20 day H/C check turned into a 95 DAY H/C Check as a result of this one fact alone. EVERY FLOOR BEAM IN THE MAIN CABIN REQUIRED REPAIRS.
How much money did FEDEX really save at the MRO after they paid AA to correct the SNAFU?