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On 3/7/2003 4:39:07 PM NewHampshire Black Bears wrote:
Just about everyone on this thread(so far) are long time posters, and everyone has made valid points !
C. NOTHING PERMANANT !!!!!!(Everything gets put back on the table, at renewal time)
IMHO, I DON't think AA will run to cp-11, if they get the figures "close" to the $1.8B, problem is where is the real "make or break" figure ????
Ex: If the unions gave up a total of $1B, would AA realisticly head for "11", because they/we came up $800M short ??????
Your thoughts ?
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I've been around since PB - and the earlier incarnation of USAviation - but the constant bickering here keeps me lurking more than posting.
Think AA is going to give anyone $12,500? AA is almost out of cash. No one is going to get $12,500. Bank on that.
Hung up on permanent v. temporary?? So call them permanent but bring them up for re-negotiation if/when the good times return. Don't get hung up on semantics. Strike (when good times return) if AA won't negotiate on the "permanent" give-backs later.
I'm 100% certain that AA files for Ch 11 by April 30 if the unions only agree to $1 billion instead of $1.8 billion.
If the unions agree to $1.6 or $1.7 billion, then maybe AA will let the difference slide.
This is the company, after all, that paid out approx. $200 - $300 million each year to the employees during those good years of the late 1990's. In total, AA paid out just over $1.8 billion in profit sharing since 1984. And AMR lost over $5 billion in 2001-2002. Well, times ain't so good now, and it's not just future profitability that's in doubt, IT'S THE VERY SURVIVAL OF AA!
What all employees need to keep in mind is that AA still has over $3 billion of unencumbered airplanes. Problem is, nobody will loan money on them until AA demonstrates neutral cash flow instead of the approx. $5 billion daily negative cash flow ("cash burn").
Give AA the $1.8 billion, don't whine about "permanent" v. "temporary" (you can always strike later if/when profits return), and watch AA borrow another $2 billion or so at decent interest rates (which should allow AA to buy some choice UA assets by May or June, when UA liquidates), and then watch AA thrive. Once profitability returns, re-negotiate the problem areas.
Deny AA the concessions now, and watch AA follow the same sad fate as UA, US and all the other dead great carriers.