Major Announcement Concerning Charlotte Air Svc.

[funguy2]

The press release is out... Its actually 6 total flights... 4 ATL and 2 BWI.

AirTran Airways Races Into the Queen City

 

[BoeingBoy]

Here's AirTran's press release...

Press Release

Jim

 

[a320av8r]

Delta Deptarture times

CLT-ATL ATL-CLT
0630 0630
0815 0745
0955 0922
1115 1041
1237 1217
1412 1336
1552 1522
1715 1643
1840 1809
2002 1956
2122 2129

US AIrways Departure times

CLT-ATL ATL-CLT
0745 0600
0930 0715
1120 0920
1350 1125
1540 1310
1710 1540
1915 1725
2125 1900

This is a market just screaming for more service.

Are you BBB didn't go to AirTran?

 

[Non Rev]

Seems like i remember reading ATL was one of the larger O & D market from CLT.
Maybe one of you computer savy folks could link us with the largest O & D markets from CLT. Im sure that info is out there somewhere.

 

[mweiss]

My data are a bit out of date, since I haven't updated them since Q3, 2003. Nonetheless, I'd expect the relative size of the markets to be roughly the same now.

In descending order of O&D traffic:
LGA 115,000 passengers per year
ORD
EWR
LAX
DFW
PHL
SFO
LAS
DEN
MDW
BOS
ATL 54,000 passengers per year
TPA
DTW 50,000 passengers per year

Interestingly, only the top five had enough passengers in 2003 to support O&D-only traffic between the two cities (defined as ~72,000 passengers per year). The rest require connecting traffic to make them viable.

 

[Non Rev]

Thank for the info Michael!

 

[Rico]

Just curious:

Question, where do you pull the 72000/yr number from, to justify if a given route is viable on O+D traffic alone...?

Thanks

 

[mweiss]

The 72K number is a bit of numerical magic, and I don't suggest that it be used as anything more than a basic rule of thumb.

It assumes that you'd get an average load factor of 55% on three 737s or 319s, or a load factor of 82% on two daily flights. This would be the lowest point that sounds reasonable to even consider point-to-point service without drawing connecting traffic.

 

[whlinder]

Michael, that's assuming the airline gets 100% of the market for the city pair?

 

[funguy2]

This also assumes no local market stimulation by lowered fares... Which seems plausible with AirTran service on any of these routes...

 

[Whatnow?]

This also assumes no local market stimulation by lowered fares... Which seems plausible with AirTran service on any of these routes...

[post="248753"][/post]​

I'm not sure there is enough O/D market in CLT to support all of these new flights by Airtran and DL? Most of these business markets do so well because of US's hub presence bringing the people in to connect out to those cities. I wonder how long those flights will actually last? Sounds like the other carriers are running a little desperate to knock US out of the industry, better US than themselves! Well, they need to hurry because once US gets its cost structure up and running, there will be a fare fight on their hands!

 

[madders]

Actually U going to ATL is competting with DL
FL flying to ATL will probably hurt DL more than U

I am not worried about CLT in the least

 

[Whatnow?]

I really don't see any of those flights lasting too long.

 

[Rico]

The 72K number is a bit of numerical magic, and I don't suggest that it be used as anything more than a basic rule of thumb.

It assumes that you'd get an average load factor of 55% on three 737s or 319s, or a load factor of 82% on two daily flights. This would be the lowest point that sounds reasonable to even consider point-to-point service without drawing connecting traffic.

[post="248742"][/post]​

I see,

Well then it would make sense that softer routes would still be viable well below your 72K threshold, if operated by equipment with a lower trip cost.

Other important factors might be an increased yield due to corporate, government, military, and academic travel between the two cities, that produces a revenue gain over normal everyday discretionary travel.

But I understand that some rule of thumb is useful for comparison purposes.

 

[WorldTraveler]

DL is the largest carrier on CLT-ATL but US will be vulnerable on all O&Ds FL serves from CLT. US can either be competitive w/ US on the fares or passengers will choose to fly with either FL or DL because DL will be fully competitive with FL on fares.