With 1 new A/C per month (12 pilots) and replacing retired pilots(237/yr..19/month) this year and (282) next year (combined)plus the fact that America West is short pilots already(rumor was 100 short)doesn't this all add up to a constant recall rate of at least 30/month combined east/west just to continue operations and not shrink? Or does my crystal ball need some windex??
There are a couple of those that I can't confirm...
I have no idea about hiring going forward out west. I've seen no more than you have - mainly what the AAA MEC has put out as far as retirements on the West side.
Any attrition over and above age 60 retirements is speculation, though the past is somewhat indicative of the future.
Certainly, with the age of the East pilot group, one could expect a net loss of pilots to medical disability - more going out on medical than returning. Trying to put a firm number on that is a different story, though.
Likewise with early retirements. While it's certainly likely that pilots will continue leaving early, it's impossible to put a number on that.
The total attrition that was running close to 40 a month in the "dark days" of BK2 is down to 20 a month between the last bid and this one. Will that decline in the rate of attrition continue?
There's also the "double-edged sword" aspect of folks leaving active status early. It increases attrition over that from age 60 retirements now but decreases the amount of age 60 attrition down the road.
In short, the only attrition that is definite is the age 60 attrition - unless the rules change on that. So you can count on 71 more pilots leaving this year and 80 more in the first half of next year, both only from the East side. Throw in some number for the West side - maybe someone from that side can comment on that - and you get the "guaranteed" attrition for the next year or so.
Of course, the other side of the staffing equation is the aircraft count. Right now there are apparently only 3 more planes coming to the East side this year (above that incluced in this bid) and 6 or so in the first half of next year - all Emb-190's. Figure 10 pilots per plane (to be conservative) and that's 90 pilots. Add the known attrition - 151 age 60 retirements - and you get a need for 241 recalls on the East side.
Finally, there's one last complicating factor. I suspect that you'll see the East side attempt to operate with as few pilots as possible - without furloughing, naturally. Right now, most bases/equip are using an 85 hour pay cap, but a 95 hour cap and 5 hour additional flex cap can be instituted at any time. Every 6 pilots that fly 95-100 hours negates 1 recall, so 1446 pilots flying the extra would offset both the age 60 attrition and extra planes thru the middle of next year.
What does this all mean? Just that trying to pin down the number of recalls is more of a guessing game than a scientific undertaking. Hope for lots of recalls, prepare for few, and something in between will probably happen.
Someone can have my slot in November, however!!
Jim
), it can be a time consuming process.
