Pilot Bid 06-02 (May/June)

[PITbull]

Hey Mark!

Greetings my friend.

I am enjoying the next chapter. I still lurk here and put my .2 in where I am not needed B)

 

[BoeingBoy]

Jim,

What about the pilots in PIT? Are there no overages? Don't the pilots in PIT have the opportunity to transfer into these bases before a recall or has that happened already?

For pilots, displacements and vacancy awards are handled at the same time during the bid award process so anyone involuntarily displaced (any overages) had an opportunity to displace where they wished and as their seniority allowed.

The vacancies left for the recalled folks are what's left after every active pilot had a chance to exercise their seniority within the system.

Jim

 

[USB737]

How can we find out how far down the furloughed list this recall went? How many recalls do you see happening for the new aircraft and retirements is there a plan beyond June that anyone knows about????? I would like to keep the info flowing here

Thanks

Starved for INFO hoping to get back soon
:down: Furloughed and stuck flying for JALways

 

[Kev3188]

:down: Furloughed and stuck flying for JALways

At least flying the "Super Resort Express" takes you to some nice places.

 

[BoeingBoy]

"How can we find out how far down the furloughed list this recall went?"

Presumably the MEC office will be tracking the recalls, so that'd probably be the best way to find out something "official". Resource planning would also know. Of course, it'll take a few days to see who accepts recall. Just my hunch - probably fill these 54 vacancies within the top 100 pilots on the APL, possibly less.

"How many recalls do you see happening for the new aircraft and retirements is there a plan beyond June that anyone knows about?????"

This bid already includes the 3 new 757's, so it's just the 190's as far as new airplanes during the remainder of this year - 3 of them in Nov/Dec. By retirements, I assume you're talking about pilot retirements - there's 71 normal retirements between 7/1/06 and 12/31/06 (normal age 60 retirements thru Jun were factored into this bid). Total attrition has been running over double the rate of age 60 attrition, so figure 150-200 during the last half of this year. Of course, the number over normal retirement can't be pinned down in advance.

For the remainder of this year, the combined fleet count is forecast to be basically static at 357-358 airplanes. That's according to the investor guidance just given, which is available on the AmWest website.

Jim

 

[USB737]

Thanks Jim, I appreciate your info.

I will try to get some info out of ALPA once they stop aguing about who said what to whom about what, but in the mean time:

With 1 new A/C per month (12 pilots) and replacing retired pilots(237/yr..19/month) this year and (282) next year (combined)plus the fact that America West is short pilots already(rumor was 100 short)doesn't this all add up to a constant recall rate of at least 30/month combined east/west just to continue operations and not shrink? Or does my crystal ball need some windex??

 

[ringmaruf]

Affected Pilots List - the folks that were furloughed from mainline.

(I think) Combined Eligibility List - the folks that moved from the wholly-owned (PSA, PDT, and - before it merged with PDT - ALG) to MDA.

Jim

I thought the CEL was just the combined seniority lists at PSA and Piedmont, regardless of whether the pilot went to MDA or not. And I thought that the PSA/PDT pilots who did go to MDA and are about to get furloughed get their names on the bottom of the APL, with mainline recall rights.

The only thing that's for sure is that the company makes everything as hard as possible to understand, so that none of them pesky employees are ever really sure what they're in fact entitled to.

 

[BoeingBoy]

Now that you mention it, that definition of the CEL sounds more accurate than the one I gave earlier - thanks, ringmaruf.

Jim

 

[BoeingBoy]

With 1 new A/C per month (12 pilots) and replacing retired pilots(237/yr..19/month) this year and (282) next year (combined)plus the fact that America West is short pilots already(rumor was 100 short)doesn't this all add up to a constant recall rate of at least 30/month combined east/west just to continue operations and not shrink? Or does my crystal ball need some windex??

There are a couple of those that I can't confirm...

I have no idea about hiring going forward out west. I've seen no more than you have - mainly what the AAA MEC has put out as far as retirements on the West side.

Any attrition over and above age 60 retirements is speculation, though the past is somewhat indicative of the future.

Certainly, with the age of the East pilot group, one could expect a net loss of pilots to medical disability - more going out on medical than returning. Trying to put a firm number on that is a different story, though.

Likewise with early retirements. While it's certainly likely that pilots will continue leaving early, it's impossible to put a number on that.

The total attrition that was running close to 40 a month in the "dark days" of BK2 is down to 20 a month between the last bid and this one. Will that decline in the rate of attrition continue?

There's also the "double-edged sword" aspect of folks leaving active status early. It increases attrition over that from age 60 retirements now but decreases the amount of age 60 attrition down the road.

In short, the only attrition that is definite is the age 60 attrition - unless the rules change on that. So you can count on 71 more pilots leaving this year and 80 more in the first half of next year, both only from the East side. Throw in some number for the West side - maybe someone from that side can comment on that - and you get the "guaranteed" attrition for the next year or so.

Of course, the other side of the staffing equation is the aircraft count. Right now there are apparently only 3 more planes coming to the East side this year (above that incluced in this bid) and 6 or so in the first half of next year - all Emb-190's. Figure 10 pilots per plane (to be conservative) and that's 90 pilots. Add the known attrition - 151 age 60 retirements - and you get a need for 241 recalls on the East side.

Finally, there's one last complicating factor. I suspect that you'll see the East side attempt to operate with as few pilots as possible - without furloughing, naturally. Right now, most bases/equip are using an 85 hour pay cap, but a 95 hour cap and 5 hour additional flex cap can be instituted at any time. Every 6 pilots that fly 95-100 hours negates 1 recall, so 1446 pilots flying the extra would offset both the age 60 attrition and extra planes thru the middle of next year.

What does this all mean? Just that trying to pin down the number of recalls is more of a guessing game than a scientific undertaking. Hope for lots of recalls, prepare for few, and something in between will probably happen.

Someone can have my slot in November, however!!

Jim

 

[sfb]

Someone can have my slot in November, however!!

Jim

Hopefully you'll still be around these parts, since you've always added well-reasoned thoughts to these boards.

 

[BoeingBoy]

No worries - I'll still be around. Probably to the chagrin of some.....

Jim

 

[NeedForSpeed]

I still lurk here and put my .2 in where I am not needed B)

Thats the understatement of the year.... <_<

 

[ringmaruf]

For the remainder of this year, the combined fleet count is forecast to be basically static at 357-358 airplanes. That's according to the investor guidance just given, which is available on the AmWest website.

Gotta love how their new fleet plan lists the EMB-190 under Express.

 

[BoeingBoy]

A quick update for those furloughed/Emb-170/J4J pilots wondering when or if the call offering will come.....

So far, the acceptance rate is a little under 50% - 55 pilots called and 25 "Yes" answers. If that continues, looks like this recall offer will go to somewhere around the top 120 pilots on the APL list.

If you're in that group and haven't been called yet, start thinking about your answer. Also bear with us - each pilot is contacted in seniority order and an answer received before going to the next pilot. Since no one is sitting by the phone 24 hours a day waiting for the call (well, maybe a few ), it can be a time consuming process.

If you're much below that group, keep your fingers crossed for more recalls on the next bid.

When the process is finished, I'll post something as soon as possible (I do fly now and then, ya know).

Gotta love how their new fleet plan lists the EMB-190 under Express.

I sure hope that's a slip-up and not letting slip out something that's not supposed to be known yet. I did notice that MDA isn't listed as an express carrier.

Jim

 

[USB737]

Thanks again for the info I realy appreciate it and so do many of us furloughees including those of us on the outside not in the J4J program and sort of "out of the loop".The people I flew with at Us Airways were a great group and I look forward to returning.