Actually the scenario I painted is for very short flights which have an alternate required so that you are carrying more than usual fuel, but all of it is required.
Well, we fly some pretty short flights (or used to before the RJ's took them over) - CLT-CAE, CLT-GSO, CLT-GSP, CLT-AVL, with the shortest being 66nm. I suppose it's possible that a large area of bad weather would require a distant alternate with a corresponding large fuel requirement, which could make it problematic compensating for the J/S rider's weight. Just never seen it happen, but that doesn't mean it couldn't.
Our "pad" isn't as cut and dried - the amount varies as does the reason for it (possible deviations for WX & altitude changes for turbulance are common reasons.
Plus our dispatchers seem to be on the conservative side when it comes to fuel. Even with a program in place to cut down on extra arrival fuel (other than when tankering, obviously), it's extremely rare to land with anything even approaching minimum required fuel. In addition, it's rare (absent ground holds off the gate with the apu inop) to be within 500# of min T/O fuel when reaching the runway (not even counting all the times we tanker fuel).
Some of it may be aircraft configuration and routes operated on. With only 126/144 seats on the 300/400, there's less passenger/baggage weight than some carriers with a higher seating configuration. Plus we (US East) only fly the 737 in the eastern half of the country and Caribbean/Latin America - a long flight is 3 hours or so.
Obviously you have to land below MLW, but you can't takeoff at a weight that projects you to land above MLW according to the flight plan either.
Well, as you said above, the flight plan burn corrected for weight variance which is minor unless there's a big change in weight - about 150# per 1000# of weight change for a 3 hour flight. Probably less effect than a 2000' change of altitude. And while you're technically correct - you can't T/O knowing that you'll land above MLW - the flight plan is just a plan. It's not cast in stone. Our's are probably behind the times. They don't take into account T/O direction, landing direction, anything but uninterrupted climb (other than step climbs on long legs), etc. It's basically the old "measure with a micrometer, mark with chalk, cut with chainsaw" approach.
But if you have a cooperative dispatcher you may get more weight, but don't be surprised to see them want to add pax if possible.
We have something called a "weight capped" flight, which shows up on the release. It means the flight is expected to be within 500# of MTOW (usually due to MLW, but not always). If that's the case the maximum number of passengers is listed and I've only seen something other than maximum seating capacity once. That was when a MEL restriction plus tankering fuel reduced the allowable passenger count by 4 (which is what we were booked for when the release was prepared). So it's
almost unheard of for a restriction to keep passengers off but still be able to get a jumpseater on. In addition, the jumpseaters usually ride in the back, so are included in the W&B as a passenger (or should be). If they're riding up front, there's probably not a seat in the back to allow putting more passengers on.
Of course, you've got to remember that all this is based on the 737 flying we do. Other airplanes may have more problems with weight restrictions, what limits weight, etc.
Jim