OK,
more like you don't get that it is all about the pensions and oil, but my guesses would be:
1. AMR in court in about 18 months as much debt comes due and concessionary deals expire/NWA emerges a much smaller company, perhaps shedding the pacific to AMR.
2. CAL in court sooner than AMR, fragmented among many carriers.
3. SWA already has acquired and is looking hard at ATA etc.
4. US is already merging with HP.
5. UAL with a wide body purchase and takes advantage of much chaos, perhaps picking up some pieces along the way.
6. DAL the victim of orderly liquidation along the lines that is happening at INDY air. Emerges as a much smaller company, perhaps a dance partner for parts of CAL or NWAC. Your above theory ignores the corporate ties and governance issues between the three.
Thus far you haven't written anything that would lead me to believe you could "splane" anything to me...Please use more imagination than the latest article in USA TODAY. Bottom line is when SWA's hedges finally start to dwindle, and the legacy carriers finish restructuring, it will be game on again - just with lower revenue and cost. Simple economics at work, it can't be predicted with any real certainty- other than things will change. Your theory of great consolidation is just the latest fad that follows the great 50 seat RJ, de-peaked hubs, simplifares (what a genius move) et al. Just wait a few months and all the talking heads will be on to something else. That something else will be driven by events to come. The only thing you can do is be as competitive and run the highest quality operation you can.
If you have lived with the pain like some of us, you should realize the inherent chaos of it all. Air travel is a commodity, it has gone from being a brand loyalty driven enterprise to a cost driven, internet sold issue. I assure you you have no real clue what is to come, only a WAG...just like everyone else. You just haven't figured it out yet.
JBG
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