Mathematically Speaking, Obamacare Cannot Survive
My friend "BC" writes:
Obama gets attacked by opponents, but the "reform" was written by hospital companies, doctors, and insurers and is an effective tax on the labor of young people and a massive transfer to the aforementioned groups who already receive a grossly disproportionate share of GDP already.
Were the real culprits to be singled out for scrutiny of their motives, it would be doctors, hospitals, and insurers.
Healthcare Key Points
"Health care" (HC) spending is now 17% of GDP and an equivalent of 50% of private wages and of total government spending, growing at twice the rate of GDP since '00.
50% of HC spending is on the sickest 5%.
20% is spend on end-of-life services for elders.
Private HC and total government spending is an equivalent of 100% of public and private wages.
HC and war spending make up and equivalent of 25% of GDP.
Out-of-pocket HC costs are now the primary cause of personal bankruptcy.
HC in the US is unaffordable for most people were they to have to pay for it themselves.
"The market" is "rationing" care for at least 50 million uninsured people and would for most elders were they to have to bear more of the true costs of their late-life care.
Unless one can make a case for the economy becoming 100% government and HC spending over the next 30-40 years, there is a 0% probability that growth of HC spending can continue, let alone at twice the rate of GDP. A decline of 30% is a mathematical certainty over the next 10+ years and 50% per capita over the same period.
That the growth of government and HC spending has contributed 100% of growth of GDP since '00-'01, no growth and eventual contraction of HC spending will mean effectively no nominal GDP growth hereafter except for whatever net incremental borrowing and spending will occur at the federal level.
Were US government spending to grow at the trend rate, nominal GDP will avg. 1%. Were US government spending to slow to the GDP trend, nominal GDP will be no more than 0.8%.
The implied ~1% nominal GDP growth implies the 10-yr. Treasury yield in the low 1% range, little or no price inflation (eventually falling services prices), decelerating core inflation and periodic core deflation, and no growth of bank lending, employment, investment, spending, and reported earnings for most of the decade.
We will look back on the period '09-'12 as a final central bank-induced asset reflationary cycle that eventually gave way to the forces of demographics, thermodynamics, debt deflation, and valuations.
Whether Obamacare passes Supreme Court muster or not, mathematically speaking, healthcare cannot survive in its present form, nor can it survive in Obamacare form for reasons my friend BC explains.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com