Actually, I believe that United has a very good chance to win the 2008 frequencies (7 weekly) for SFO-CAN service, despite already holding five daily U.S.-China nonstop flights. United will almost certainly propose to operate the SFO-CAN flights with its B747-400s, the largest aircraft in any U.S. carrier's fleet. Plus, California has, by far, the largest amount of U.S.-CAN O&D traffic and SFO, unlike LAX with China Southern, has no nonstop service by a carrier from either the U.S. or China. These factors are two of the main criteria that the DOT seems to be using these days to select carriers for new China services, and they were the primary reasons for the selection of United's IAD-PEK proposal in the most recent China case.
In my estimation (and this prediction is worth everything you're paying for it
😛 ), the upcoming China awards will probably be as follows:
2007 - Delta (new designation) ATL-PVG
2008 - United SFO-CAN
2009 #1 - US Airways (new designation) PHL-PVG, unless the carrier doesn't acquire ULH aircraft -- a very real possibility IMHO -- in which case it could be HA HNL-PVG or perhaps World or ATA. Of course, the DOT is not
required to designate a new carrier.
2009 #2 - Continental EWR-PVG
2009 #3 - American ORD-PEK
2009 #4 - Delta ATL-PEK
My crystal ball gets fuzzy beyond 2009, but it doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure out that the most likely selections in 2010-2012 (three in 2010, and two each in 2011 and 2012) will be from among the following:
American JFK-PVG
Delta JFK-PVG
American LAX-PVG
Delta LAX-PVG
United LAX-PVG
Continental IAH-PVG
United IAD-PVG
Northwest DTW-PVG
Northwest DTW-PEK
American DFW-PVG
American DFW-PEK
US Airways PHL-PEK
US Airways PHX-PVG
US Airways LAS-PVG
I assume that only one carrier would be selected initially in the JFK-PVG and LAX-PVG markets, although additional carriers might be awarded frequencies in subsequent years (similar to events in the ORD-PVG market). And this list omits second daily frequencies in already-served markets such as United SFO-PVG or American ORD-PVG, which are possible but not too likely as long as there are other gateway/carrier combinations without nonstop service being sought.
The big questions about these possible routes are:
1.) Will the DOT continue to "penalize" Northwest (by refusing to award it more frequenices) if the carrier keeps operating its current flights via NRT?
2.) Will the DOT award two new PVG routes (US Airways at PHL and Continental at EWR), from U.S. hubs that are only about 90 miles apart, in the same year?
3.) Will American and its pilots come to an agreement allowing nonstop DFW-China flights?
4.) Will US Airways acquire the appropriate aircraft for U.S.-China service?
This is JMHO -- your thoughts would be appreciated.
