UAUA closes over $40

[The Gopher]

Looks like UAUA is above $40 per share since its issue, times nicely with the additional distribution. There was a $1 spike on March 20th about 2pm, a huge jump. What happened?

I'm inclined to hold until NWA and DAL sort out their union messes. If either one even look like there'll be a strike, then UA will benefit the most (especially in NWA's case, with the largest to gain from any weakness in their network).

 

[Nor'Easta]

Looks like UAUA is above $40 per share since its issue

Just remember they have yet to report any earnings or losses since they came out of Chapter 11. The 1Q of 2006 is almost over and we will see what UA reports. This will have a big impact on the stock price.

 

[Deleted by Moderator]

Of course it will which is exactly why United took all the last write offs and paper losses in their 2005 last quarter. I would expect United will have a profitable Quarter 1.

Excellent stock prices!

 

[TechBoy]

Of course it will which is exactly why United took all the last write offs and paper losses in their 2005 last quarter. I would expect United will have a profitable Quarter 1.

Excellent stock prices!

Wall Street isn't that stupid. They tend to focus on operating results, not write offs.

As for Q1, if UA posts a profit the stock will soar. Of course, there is little chance of that happening. The real question is whether UA will post a profit for the year. With a little help on fuel prices, they may just do it.

 

[Deleted by Moderator]

I would have agreed with you Tech. But how do you explain the high stock price any other way?

 

[767jetz]

I would have agreed with you Tech. But how do you explain the high stock price any other way?

Well, here is one reason: LINK

"UAL Corp. has a $43 price target. The profit outlook for 2006 is $2.13 a share and for 2007 is raised to $3.99. A loss of $1.91 a share is forecast for the first quarter -- wider than the First Call loss estimate of $1.74."

 

[TechBoy]

I would have agreed with you Tech. But how do you explain the high stock price any other way?

Well, going up is always better than going down, but this is hardly a high stock price. Don't confuse the nominal share price with the market capitalization of a company. UA is only worth $2B -- barely more than B6. AA is worth $5B and LUV is above $14B. My company, on the other hand, has a stock price in the $20s, but the market cap is well over $100B.

I think that airline stocks are going up because LUV and B6 are raising fares. If the increases stick and load factors are not significantly affect by higher prices, then most of the majors will be in the black for the year.

But the situation is not completely rosy. Capacity increases among the 3 LCCs will continue to erode routes with high fares as they enter new markets. The "good" news for UA is that it already has LCCs impacting all of its hubs.

 

[TechBoy]

Well, here is one reason: LINK

"UAL Corp. has a $43 price target. The profit outlook for 2006 is $2.13 a share and for 2007 is raised to $3.99. A loss of $1.91 a share is forecast for the first quarter -- wider than the First Call loss estimate of $1.74."

That comes out to a profit of $85m or so. Not bad, but not a big cushion. As long as demand stays high and oil doesn't go any further, they might be able to meet it.

 

[Cosmo]

UA is only worth $2B ...

Sorry, that's not true. United has over 100 million shares outstanding at the moment (I don't remember the exact number), so at $40 per share, the market cap would be in excess of $4 billion. That's still not great but it is a more accurate figure.

 

[TechBoy]

Sorry, that's not true. United has over 100 million shares outstanding at the moment (I don't remember the exact number), so at $40 per share, the market cap would be in excess of $4 billion. That's still not great but it is a more accurate figure.

Hmmmm . . . MSN says that there are 47m shares outstanding.

Could there be "nonoutstanding" shares out there? I've never heard of that before. Or MSN could have bad data . . .

 

[FWAAA]

Cosmo is much closer than TechBoy.

MSN, Yahoo! and other financial sites are having trouble these days with the recently discharged carriers' numbers.

My numbers say that UAUA has 116.22 million shares outstanding for an intraday market cap of $4.76 billion.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=UAUA

Note that on the link below, the UAUA market cap is shown as $0, and LCC's market cap is mistakenly shown as $123.8 million.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/770.html

Caveat Emptor with numbers you find on the internet.

The difference between the 47 million and the 116.22 million number may result from the restricted nature of many of the new shares of UAUA; to avoid a change of ownership determination (which would kill all the billions in loss carryforwards), many of the holders are restricted from selling their stock for a period of time. Adding to that are the shares like management received that may not vest right away, but instead vest over a multi-year period.

 

[ualdriver]

Sell!!!! Sell!!!!!

 

[SoftLanding]

Hmmmm . . . MSN says that there are 47m shares outstanding.

Could there be "nonoutstanding" shares out there? I've never heard of that before. Or MSN could have bad data . . .

Am also showing 47m shares, out of a float of 115M. Feb-06 recording date.

www.shortsqueeze.com

Double top is showing up on the daily from the first day of trading...so traders might be looking at shorting it for a ride back to 35-36'ish...

 

[Borescope]

All the airlines ride up and down on the stock market with the price of oil. The day UAUA jumped 1.00, oil was down. Look at the price of oil now up over 64 a barrel. As a result the airlines were down. UAUA down 1.51 today. Co down .86, AA down .99. Better hope Iran doesn't create any more trouble in the middle east, or we're going to see these stock prices drop a whole lot further. :down:

 

[bluetoad]

All the airlines ride up and down on the stock market with the price of oil. The day UAUA jumped 1.00, oil was down. Look at the price of oil now up over 64 a barrel. As a result the airlines were down. UAUA down 1.51 today. Co down .86, AA down .99. Better hope Iran doesn't create any more trouble in the middle east, or we're going to see these stock prices drop a whole lot further. :down:

Here we are almost a month later and oil is almost $73 dollars/bbl. I was under the impression United's financial plan on exiting was based on $50/bbl. Any word on what the numbers are expected to be?

Thanks