HOWEVER, that said, AA is particularly weak in the face of the combined UA/CO and DL/NW. AA has Latin America sewed up, but their underwear is showing (no coverage) in Asia and Europe. In the short term (5-7 years), US could declare domestic detente with Southwest/AirTran (skirmishes here and there, but no real winner 'cept LAS whimper. But hey! We have DCA! For now...).
"No coverage in Asia and Europe?" Really?
This summer, AA flies 19 daily flights to London from BOS, JFK, RDU, MIA, DFW, ORD and LAX. In addition, BA flies another 40 daily flights to London, and thanks to the immunized alliance between AA, BA and IB, AA shares revenues and profits on these TATL flights. In addition to those 59 daily London flights, AA flies another 19 daily flights to Europe, including Paris, Rome, Milan, Barcelona, Frankfurt and Madrid (plus a few other places). Let's see: 38 daily flights on AA metal to Europe, 14 of which are flown on 3-class 777s and most of the others on 763s (with a few 757s thrown in from BOS and JFK). That's "no coverage" in Europe? How's that compare to US' schedule to Europe?
Asia? Are you serious? AA flies five daily 777s to Tokyo plus three daily 777 flights to China. In Tokyo, AA offers numerous connections throughout Asia on its immunized joint venture partner, JAL (which recently reported huge profits following its bankruptcy two years ago). Just like with BA/IB, AA shares revenues and profits on TPAC markets with JAL. While not an immunized joint venture, AA enjoys a close relationship with Cathay Pacific, which offers numerous daily nonstops to HKG from LAX, SFO, ORD and JFK and numerous connections throughout Asia and to China from HKG. To Australia, AA enjoys an immunized alliance with Qantas, the largest US-Australia carrier. How's that "no coverage to Asia" compare with US' Asian presence?
But the long term prospects for AA don't look good. Even if AA does emerge from BK without US (pun intended) it is not clear how they are going to grow flights/capacity by 20% in 5-7 years in order to match the domestic and international capacity of UA/CO and DL/NW. Who is going to give AA the money to buy more planes, hire more pilots, FAs, CS and FS in this era of austerity?! So, US either gets married right now to fight off Southwest/AirTran on one side and UA/CO and DL/NW on the other side, OR we stand alone and double down for 5-7 years fighting minor skirmishes with Southwest/Airtran and simply wait 5-7 years for AA to lose its own post-BK battle trying to find the money/people/planes to grow 20% to fight off ALREADY stronger UA/CO and DL/NW. And THEN we merge with AA after their 5-7 year post-BK boondoggle is over/fails.
Who is going to finance the new planes at AA? It may not be clear to you, but it's pretty clear to those who have been paying attention. AA already has commitments for lease financing for the first 260 narrowbodies from Airbus and Boeing - that's all the deliveries from 2013 thru 2017. AA has 10 new 777-300ERs on the way in the next 18 months (by December, 2013) plus six more 777s by 2016. AA has 42 787-9s on order with deliveries scheduled to begin 2014 or 2015.
So far in 2012, AA has increased its revenue by almost $1 billion compared to the first five months of 2011, so additional revenue has been shown to be no problem. AA's unit revenue has been growing faster than unit revenue at UA or US. Funny how you've already declared AA's restructuring plan to be DOA despite early returns showing that it is working.
Yes, AA and US will probably combine. If they do not, US will find itself on life support in the near future, while AA continues to grow. Low-cost providers tend to grow while high-cost providers tend to contract, and US is a high-cost provider. Following its bankruptcy, AA should be a lower-cost provider. US brings nothing to the table in Asia - not a single Transpacific flight and not a lot of customers in cities with O&D demand to Asia like SEA, SFO, LAX, CHI, NYC or DFW. Fortunately, AA doesn't need help in South America - where US will bring its one flight from Charlotte to Rio. And in Europe? US has a decent summer schedule to Europe from PHL and CLT, but brings no strength in NYC or CHI where AA needs to bulk up against UA and DL.