US/NW Merger rumor?

[whaledriver]

When nwa and Delta come out of BK (3-5-7 years) they will want to do the same. New airline model is choice. nwa is in the Skyteam alliance and shares already with Delta so it makes sense. nwa...no mechanics union, Delta...no mechanics union. nwa..pilots under thumb, Delta...pilots also under thumb (under control). nwa is waiting to get all of the labor groups under control and then maybe they can talk about emerging from BK...and not a minute sooner.
The big question for these CEOs is which one wears the boots and which ones become the boot lickers?

Smith,

I agree with you 100% on the labor issue. It almost seems as if NWA is forcing ALL union labor off the property. In a way, the union work force will emulate Delta.

The ground work for a future merger, IF nwa has it's way...



No mechanics union = DAL + NWA

NO F/A union = DAL + NWA (If nwa strike occurs)

SAME Pilots union = DAL + NWA (ALPA)

???

 

[Nor'Easta]

The best fit for mergers is:

1) AA/NW - Very little overlap on routes. AA can replace the MD80's and use NW A319/320 until they can get some 737's from Boeing. AA's A300 can be replaced with NW A330 until AA can get some 787's. This would give AA the Asia presence it has been after for so long. It would also give AA a hub in NRT and AMS.

2) UA/CO - Once again very little overlap on routes. All CO would have to do is dump the Airbus fleet UA has. Then CO can keep a true all Boeing fleet. With UA's fuel plan of $50, it will not be long before they probably file BK again.

3) This leaves DL, US and AS to figure out what would do.

Several airline analysts have said the above mergers would be a great fit.

JMHO

 

[DCAflyer]

It seems that US/NW would be a better fit, using your logic. Very little route overlap and significant feet cohesion already build it... Both have newer-model A320 family jets and A330 jets, both have 757's. NW already has plans to jettison the DC9's and I believe also the DC10's. The combined fleet, therefore, would be:

737 (US)
747 (NW)
757 (US & NW)
767 (US)
A320 family (US & NW)
A330 (US & NW)
E-190 (US)

 

[TechBoy]

[quote name='Nor'Easta' post='394034' date='Jul 4 2006, 03:58 PM']The best fit for mergers is:

1) AA/NW - Very little overlap on routes. AA can replace the MD80's and use NW A319/320 until they can get some 737's from Boeing. AA's A300 can be replaced with NW A330 until AA can get some 787's. This would give AA the Asia presence it has been after for so long. It would also give AA a hub in NRT and AMS.[/quote]
While this may be a good merger, I don't think that your fleet plans will work. AA has something like 300+ MD-80s which could not be replaced by NW's relatively small A319/320 fleet. Likewise, AA has more A300s than NW has A330s.

While a combined AA/NW would certainly shrink its narrowbody needs, I would think that they would park DC9s before MD80s. Not to mention the DC10s.

The first order of business for a merged AA/NW would be a major narrowbody and probably an expansion of NW's 787 order.

 

[JungleClone]

You can bet that before NW were to agree to be purchased by CO, that they'd have a firm understanding of 5th Freedom rights of the successor company. I'm sure other carriers would try to have them opened up for bid. It does pose an interesting scenario since that is obviously the vital asset NW possesses that every other carrier covets.

I still stick to my deep belief that a CO/UA merger is just around the corner. The hubs fit better, as do the fleets.

 

[USCREW]

During the July 18th meeting in PHX, a F/A asked if there was any truth to the mergers, and DP said, "Well we won't be buying BOTH NW and DL, but we would be negligent in not (considering it)".

 

[Fly]

If NW goes to US, and CAL and UAL hook up. Where will that leave AA and DL?

 

[whaledriver]

If NW goes to US, and CAL and UAL hook up. Where will that leave AA and DL?

DAL may still be part of the big picture. However, I believe AA will be left out in the cold on this round. AA is still hurting from the big TWA mistake. Look at the planes (MD80/757) they are still currently parking and the thousands of AA employees on furlough. I've talk talked to a few former AA pilots, they said they may never return to AA. The DOJ would not allow an airline the size of AA to merge, unless it's a CH7 deal...looks as if that's not going to happen w/ DAL or NWA.

 

[Bob Owens]

DAL may still be part of the big picture. However, I believe AA will be left out in the cold on this round. AA is still hurting from the big TWA mistake. Look at the planes (MD80/757) they are still currently parking and the thousands of AA employees on furlough. I've talk talked to a few former AA pilots, they said they may never return to AA. The DOJ would not allow an airline the size of AA to merge, unless it's a CH7 deal...looks as if that's not going to happen w/ DAL or NWA.

Big mistake? From whose point of veiw? From the top TWA was a great success, TWA helped them get over $1.8 billion a year in concessions and they now have less workers than they had prior to getting TWA.

Why do you think AA is sitting on that $5 billion? There are many reasons, one is they still claim they are $20 billion in the hole, while admitting that they raised their cash reserves from $1 billion to over $5 billion.Why not just pay the debt down to $16 billion?
The purchase of another carrier at firesale prices I'm sure is another reason.
DOJ would not allow the merger? Why not, didnt they allow Exxon and Mobil to merge? Is oil less stategic than airplanes? How many major oil companies do we have in the US and how many major airlines do we have?

 

[whaledriver]

Big mistake? From whose point of veiw? From the top TWA was a great success, TWA helped them get over $1.8 billion a year in concessions and they now have less workers than they had prior to getting TWA.

Why do you think AA is sitting on that $5 billion? There are many reasons, one is they still claim they are $20 billion in the hole, while admitting that they raised their cash reserves from $1 billion to over $5 billion.Why not just pay the debt down to $16 billion?
The purchase of another carrier at firesale prices I'm sure is another reason.
DOJ would not allow the merger? Why not, didnt they allow Exxon and Mobil to merge? Is oil less stategic than airplanes? How many major oil companies do we have in the US and how many major airlines do we have?

Yes, AA is in the hole like you said. The 5B is similar to a bank credit line and must be paid back with interest. I am sure AA's original intent was to make a 'fire sale' offer with this extra scratch, just like the TWA scenario. However, they thought someone was going down for the count. Now, NWA is looking to exit BK early and DAL will soon follow. I believe AA is getting a little nervous competing against the new restructured NWA, DAL, US and UAL. Eventually AA will have to make further cuts and this will be very difficult outside of CH11. DOJ will not allow AA and another legacy carrier to hook up for Anti-trust issues...unless of course it's under CH7 (i.e. TWA). I see no correlation between oil companies and airlines, two completely different industries. However, it would be nice to see the same type of consolidation. The airfares would follow the same trend as pump prices…

 

[FWAAA]

Yes, AA is in the hole like you said. The 5B is similar to a bank credit line and must be paid back with interest. I am sure AA's original intent was to make a 'fire sale' offer with this extra scratch, just like the TWA scenario. However, they thought someone was going down for the count. Now, NWA is looking to exit BK early and DAL will soon follow. I believe AA is getting a little nervous competing against the new restructured NWA, DAL, US and UAL. Eventually AA will have to make further cuts and this will be very difficult outside of CH11. DOJ will not allow AA and another legacy carrier to hook up for Anti-trust issues...unless of course it's under CH7 (i.e. TWA). I see no correlation between oil companies and airlines, two completely different industries. However, it would be nice to see the same type of consolidation. The airfares would follow the same trend as pump prices…

I completely agree with Bob Owens. The TWA deal didn't cost very much and actually helped AMR avoid Ch 11, where it got almost as big a concession package as UAL and US did from their expensive bankruptcies.

About your opinion that the DOJ won't allow AA to buy NW: It ain't 2001 anymore, and the Bush-controlled government (I voted for him, I'm not a Bush-hater) knows this. Just because the idiots in charge of antitrust screwed UAL in 2001 (by signalling disapproval of the USAir deal) doesn't mean that UAL couldn't buy US today.

It's not like the AA purchase of NW happens in a vaccuum - when UAL announces its merger with CO or DL the same week - it will be viewed as a positive - complete rationalization within the legacy industry.

Mr Owens' Exxon/Mobil deal is just one of many examples arguing that Justice would approve of an AA deal with NW. Besides, any deals would probably be multi-party, with AA divesting parts of NW it doesn't want anyway, in exchange for something from US or DL or CO that it could use.

Don't be so sure that AA doesn't end up with NW (at least its Asian ops) within a year or two. It is very likely to happen.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

FWAAA,

Just guessing that "Whaledriver" is a NW pilot.

If I'm correct, you can bet your A$$ that the LAST thing Whaledriver would want to see, would be AA TO grab NW !!!!

NH/BB's

 

[FWAAA]

FWAAA,

Just guessing that "Whaledriver" is a NW pilot.

If I'm correct, you can bet your A$$ that the LAST thing Whaledriver would want to see, would be AA TO grab NW !!!!

NH/BB's

Ya think?!?

I think you're right.

Hey, if he already drives a whale for NW, then it's not like his career expectations will be screwed when the APA merges the NW ALPA seniority list into the APA list. He'll probably get to stay in the left seat. But if he's a right seater in a DC-9, then there goes any hopes of ever sitting in the left seat of a shiny 747-8. If he's young enough, then maybe he can Captain a 738, maybe a 757.

 

[Bob Owens]

I completely agree with Bob Owens. The TWA deal didn't cost very much and actually helped AMR avoid Ch 11, where it got almost as big a concession package as UAL and US did from their expensive bankruptcies.

About your opinion that the DOJ won't allow AA to buy NW: It ain't 2001 anymore, and the Bush-controlled government (I voted for him, I'm not a Bush-hater) knows this. Just because the idiots in charge of antitrust screwed UAL in 2001 (by signalling disapproval of the USAir deal) doesn't mean that UAL couldn't buy US today.

It's not like the AA purchase of NW happens in a vaccuum - when UAL announces its merger with CO or DL the same week - it will be viewed as a positive - complete rationalization within the legacy industry.

Mr Owens' Exxon/Mobil deal is just one of many examples arguing that Justice would approve of an AA deal with NW. Besides, any deals would probably be multi-party, with AA divesting parts of NW it doesn't want anyway, in exchange for something from US or DL or CO that it could use.

AA got a bigger concession package than either USAIR or UAL.In fact the TWU is still giving more concessions.

Wow you are actually starting to agree with me, however you havent touched the question I posed on the AA thread regarding how companies finance executive pensions where they are credited for years that they never actually worked for the company.

I also agree that the Bush administration (cant stand him and didnt vote for them)is in favor of allowing monopolies to form, unless it involves something that would actually benifit the workers.

 

[Don Smith]

United expanding Asia Pacific service
United Airlines in the next nine months will add 40 weekly passenger flights and increase cargo capacity to the Asia Pacific region. The service will include new United service from Washington Dulles to Tokyo and three more weekly flights between San Francisco and Hong Kong.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

This clip was on the ATA news online. More headache for nwa if this happens. I would say that an AA merger would look a lot better to the big whigs if UAL keeps expanding into their honey hole.