WN seeks to triple service at DEN

[LoneStarMike]

Looks like they're not messing around.

Airline could triple its daily departures from DIA if the FAA gives final approval
Rocky Mountain News
April 25, 2006

Excerpts:

• Southwest Airlines is preparing to as much as triple its daily departures from Denver International Airport, reflecting the carrier's intentions to grow rapidly in its newest market.
  
  
• The low-cost airline appears close to receiving final Federal Aviation Administration approval on a proposal to fly as many as 60 daily nonstop departures from Denver.
  
  
• "This is a response to the success we're seeing there, and it's in anticipation of growth so when the time is right we have this step in place," Jones said, adding that the carrier has not announced specific plans for any new service.
  
  
• Dallas-based Southwest last year received federal approval to start service at DIA and was told it would have to go through the process again if it planned to add more than 40 flights.
  
  
• Airlines that want to start service or significantly increase flights at a given airport must meet certain environmental regulations. The FAA has issued a recommendation approving Southwest's latest proposal, saying the new flights conform with the regulations. The agency is now accepting public comment on the issue.
  
  
• Southwest has said all along that it sees significant potential in Denver, and industry experts have been expecting Southwest to expand here sooner rather than later.
  
  
• Experts say Southwest could boost flights from DIA to current destinations but also will look to add service to new cities such as Oakland, Calif.; Houston; Orlando, Fla.; and Nashville, Tenn.
  
  
• Southwest currently has three gates on the C concourse at DIA and will gain one more in June. It typically operates about 10 flights a day at each gate it leases, meaning it would need more if it expands in Denver.
  
  
• West said DIA will make "every effort" to work with Southwest on securing additional gates.
  
  
• Southwest in Denver
  
  13 Number of daily nonstop departures from DIA in January
  
  20 Current number of daily nonstops from DIA
  
  60 Number of daily nonstops Southwest could fly from Denver if it receives final government approval

The latest new flights between PHL-CMH, PHL-BNA, SAT-MDW, and MDW-PDX all begin July 2, I believe. The above article mentions WN getting a fourth gate at DEN in June. I'll bet the next round of new service announcments includes DEN.

BTW, several weeks ago an Associated Press article mentioned that Southwest carried 78,648 passengers in January in DEN.

I went to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and looked at a summary report for WN at DEN for Jan 1-31 for both departures and arrivals. (It tells you the total of each at the bottom.)

Southwest had 377 departures and 377 arrivals at DEN in January for a total of 754 flights.

754 total flights multiplied by 137 seats available on each flight equals 103,298 total available seats.

78,648 (passengers carried) divided by 103,298 (available seats) equals 76.14% - the percentage of available seats that had butts in them.

Southwest's overall systemwide load factor for January was 63.4%.

This news brief mentions Southwest flying 80,384 passengers at DEN in February.

The Bureau of Transportation Statistics shows Southwest having 370 departures and 370 arrivals at DEN for the month of February which represents 101,380 available seats.

So on average, WN's DEN flights were 79.29% full in Feb. WN's system-wide lod factor for Feb. was 68.5%

Next month's totals wil reflect the new service to BWI and SLC

Will DEN be another PHL for Southwest?

And the experts seem to think BNA, OAK, MCO, and HOU are likely propexts for new nonstop service to DEN. Do you agree or disagree?

Mike

 

[ngneer]

Well, Southwest just converted a bunch of options on 737's into firm orders so those planes are going somewhere. If your load factor numbers are correct, DIA looks like a good place to put at least some of them. Bad news for Frontier and United.

 

[ELP_WN_Psgr]

Here's a little chart (if it works) of Denver markets, DOT O&D data, 3rd Qtr, CY 2005. Click on it and then use the arrows to make it large enough to read.

I've highlighted the current markets in green and some things to think about in yellow.

If Wright got repealed....or at the very least the thru ticketing restrictions got lifted.....you ought to expect to see DAL-OKC-DEN, DAL-TUL-DEN, DAL-MAF-DEN, and DAL-LBB-DEN almost instantly.

View attachment 4798

 

[LoneStarMike]

If Wright got repealed....or at the very least the thru ticketing restrictions got lifted.....you ought to expect to see DAL-OKC-DEN, DAL-TUL-DEN, DAL-MAF-DEN, and DAL-LBB-DEN almost instantly.

View attachment 4798

I kind of figured a repeal or elimination of through ticketing was what they were talking about when they said:

This is a response to the success we're seeing there, and it's in anticipation of growth so when the time is right we have this step in place,

Adding WN's existing DEN service to the one-stops from DAL sure looks good on the Great Circle Mapper

(I threw in DAL-AMA-DEN just for the heck of it.)

Two other routes I thought might work well is DEN-OMA and DEN-MCI. The OMA flight (s) could continue on to MDW and the MCI flight(s) could continue on to STL.

Most of OMA's current service seems to come from being an intermediate stop on a longer city-pair. MDW and STL to either LAS or PHX. I think a DEN-MDW flight stoppng in OMA could work much the same way.

DEN-OMA-MDW flight would also add an additional frequency between DEN and MDW. It wouldn't be a nonstop like Southwest's other four daily departures, but it's still an additional frequency in the market

Doing DEN-MCI-STL and DEN-OMA-MDW, would also give both Missouri and Nebraska additional service.

OMA would get new n/s service to DEN and additonal n/s service to MDW. (There are 6 daily OMA-MDW flights now.)

MCI would get new n/s service to DEN and additional service to STL. (There are 6 daily MCI-STL nonstops now.)

STL would get additional service to MCI and a one-stop flight to DEN.

Senators from both MO and NE have been very supportive of Southwest's efforts to overturn the Wright Amendment and these proposed flights might make for a good "thank you."

Mike

 

[ELP_WN_Psgr]

I think we're on to something, hopefully the schedule planners will take our sage advice.

In fact...Denver is in the right place geographically for a lot of fun things.

DEN-SLC-GEG
DEN-SLC-BOI
DEN-RNO-OAK
DEN-SLC-LAX
DEN-PHX-SAN
DEN-ABQ-ELP
DEN-OKC-DAL
DEN-TUL-DAL
DEN-AMA-DAL
DEN-LBB-DAL
DEN-MAF-DAL
DEN-MCI-STL

But here's a few others...

I've often wondered why Southwest hasn't made a run at STL-BNA. It's overpriced as all get out. Not much of a market there at all. Of course there wasn't much of a market between RDU and BNA until the ugly planes started flying it.

So let us try

BNA-STL-DEN.

In fact, you might get to the point where you can afford to run all nonstops DEN-STL and tag them onwards to RDU, PIT, or PHL.

You can do that using MCI, also. Once DEN-MCI-STL gets to where you've got too much traffic flowing to each city, take the DEN-MCI flight and go on to PIT, PHL, or CLE with it.

About the only thing I would rule out is HRL-DEN or CRP-DEN. At least for now.

 

[flyJOE]

If Wright got repealed....or at the very least the thru ticketing restrictions got lifted.....you ought to expect to see DAL-OKC-DEN, DAL-TUL-DEN, DAL-MAF-DEN, and DAL-LBB-DEN almost instantly.

For starters, I agree the WA needs to be abolished.

Here's my question though, when/if the WA is eliminated, wouldn't there be a reduction in service from DAL to cities like MAF/ELP/LBB/HRL/CRP/AMA/LIT, etc.. in favor of starting nonstop service to places like DEN/MDW/LAX/PHX/BWI/OAK/SAN, etc... where yields might be better?

 

[ELP_WN_Psgr]

For starters, I agree the WA needs to be abolished.

Here's my question though, when/if the WA is eliminated, wouldn't there be a reduction in service from DAL to cities like MAF/ELP/LBB/HRL/CRP/AMA/LIT, etc.. in favor of starting nonstop service to places like DEN/MDW/LAX/PHX/BWI/OAK/SAN, etc... where yields might be better?

Joe:

That's a real good question. A lot of the folks in favor of keeping Wright are saying that WN will pull down their WA-area schedule in favor of longer haul stuff if Wright goes away.

I tend to disagree. Now, I am not going to say unequivocally that there won't be some mixing and matching and juggling to make # of flights balance with # of butts in seats.

But it is very hard to argue with the yield WN gets in today's DAL markets.

If Southwest has the ability to fly to Providence or Seattle.....you could pretty well assume that they are going to use DAL as a place for folks to make connections.

Anyone who has connected at DFW or Hartsfield with terminal changes and all that hassle would look at a connection at Love Field with a sigh of relief. It doesn't get much simpler than that.

At any rate, the markets they currently serve will see more, rather than fewer passengers.....as the loads will reflect some passengers connecting thru Love Field.

Also, there is not an infinite number of flights WN can get out of Love Field. From the current schedule and without adding gates I would say they could handle another 75 or 80 flts per day.

Southwest likes to provide customers with frequency where they can, as it is usually true that the airline with the greatest frequency in a market will capture a disproportionately large market share (true even if some flights are direct rather than nonstop).

So I think you could see OKC, TUL, STL, and MCI flights all end up at Chicago. AMA, MAF, and LBB flights could end up in Denver or Las Vegas. A couple of LIT flights would go on to BWI. MSY flights would stop and then proceed to Florida. ELP flights would get you to AZ or CA ultimately, ABQ would do the same thing.

They would add some nonstop service to Chicago...which would tag on to Detroit. There would be some Phoenix and Vegas nonstops that went onwards to California or the Pacific Northwest.

There's lots of things they can do. But any sort of dramatic pull down of the Texas Intrastate/WA area flights, I think, would be unwise.

 

[dl764]

Well, Southwest just converted a bunch of options on 737's into firm orders so those planes are going somewhere. If your load factor numbers are correct, DIA looks like a good place to put at least some of them. Bad news for Frontier and United.

Yeah I know.

 

[JS]

...

If Southwest has the ability to fly to Providence or Seattle.....you could pretty well assume that they are going to use DAL as a place for folks to make connections.
...

You're dreaming if you think that Southwest is going to operate a hub at Love Field while AA, DFW airport, and the FAA go "fine with us".

You may as well postulate on the seating configuration of the competition's Stapleton-bound orange 747's. Wake up, this is not 1965 any more.

 

[ELP_WN_Psgr]

You're dreaming if you think that Southwest is going to operate a hub at Love Field while AA, DFW airport, and the FAA go "fine with us".

You may as well postulate on the seating configuration of the competition's Stapleton-bound orange 747's. Wake up, this is not 1965 any more.

You know, Southwest could probably do pretty much anything and everything it wants to do, for quite a while, by adding Tennessee, Arizona, Nebraska, and Colorado to Wright Amendment exempt states while simultaneously junking thru ticketing restrictions.

And if the Right congress folks sign up for that, there's not a whole lot the city of Fort Worth or American Airlines are going to be able to do.

With gasoline costing 3 bucks a gallon, having an airport that's closer to the house/downtown becomes important. Short hauls start to look reasonably attractive as the Suburban gulps 20 gallons of 3 buck a gallon gasoline enroute from Dallas to Houston.

Now...if American's reaction is to try and emulate/replicate the Southwest pattern out of Love Field...we can't stop that. But maybe their shareholders should. Throwing good money after bad trying to hurt Southwest did not do Braniff any good and it won't do American any good either.

 

[mrman]

. Wake up, this is not 1965 any more.

Wake up this is not 1995 any more

 

[JS]

You know, Southwest could probably do pretty much anything and everything it wants to do, for quite a while, by adding Tennessee, Arizona, Nebraska, and Colorado to Wright Amendment exempt states while simultaneously junking thru ticketing restrictions.

And if the Right congress folks sign up for that, there's not a whole lot the city of Fort Worth or American Airlines are going to be able to do.

With gasoline costing 3 bucks a gallon, having an airport that's closer to the house/downtown becomes important. Short hauls start to look reasonably attractive as the Suburban gulps 20 gallons of 3 buck a gallon gasoline enroute from Dallas to Houston.

Now...if American's reaction is to try and emulate/replicate the Southwest pattern out of Love Field...we can't stop that. But maybe their shareholders should. Throwing good money after bad trying to hurt Southwest did not do Braniff any good and it won't do American any good either.

You're putting the cart before the horse. Southwest can't start flying to disallowed states and allow through ticketing to everywhere and then ask Congress to approve.

Southwest already flies DAL-HOU, so I don't know what your point is.

 

[ELP_WN_Psgr]

You're putting the cart before the horse. Southwest can't start flying to disallowed states and allow through ticketing to everywhere and then ask Congress to approve.

Southwest already flies DAL-HOU, so I don't know what your point is.

Ahhhh JS, no wonder you were looking at me funny. You thought we were suggesting WN go ahead and expand DAL-DEN in different ways.

Our whole thought process (and I correspond with the other poster from time to time) was based upon a repeal or modification of Wright.

I'm not so stupid (my lovely wife might argue that occasionally) as to suggest WN expand in violation of current statute.

We (myself and the other poster) are convinced that Wright is going to go away or get modified in the not too distant future...and at that time Southwest will do some of the things we discussed.

Bottom line - they aren't going to eviscerate the Texas intrastate/WA routes and throw caution to the wind regarding expansion from DAL.

It'll be like everything else they've done...methodical...far too slow to suit everyone...and in steps. One stops to develop a following, nonstops when the O&D traffic warrants.

 

[JS]

I see, so you're just speculating. IBB's are full of armchair CEO's speculating on what NW is going to do with the ATL hub abandoned by a liquidated Delta, what Delta is going to do with the MSP hub abandoned by a liquidated NW, what UA is going to do with the CLT hub or Carribean routes abandoned by a liquidated US Airways, what AA is going to do with the Asia routes abandoned by a liquidated UA, and so on. What Southwest is going to do with an unrestricted Love Field is just more of the same useless bantering. It's interesting to read just for fun but rarely does anything ever develop.

 

[WorldTraveler]

but it's precisely this kind of growth possibilities at DAL that will keep WN from getting increased Love Field rights. The only legitimate case for the WA being repealed is to stimulate local demand and bring down local prices. No one except perhaps WN wants to see a hub operation set up at DAL when the community has invested billions of dollars in DFW airport - which the neighbors have all come to understand is a large connecting hub. They do not want that kind of operation at Love Field.