Who wants a merger with US?

[wings396]

WT won't give it a rest until Delta takes over the entire airline industry in the USA, basically an US based version of Aeroflot. Following their cherry picking of AA, look for them to buy B6 & AS. After that's complete, they will persue a merger with United.
He hasn't said if Delta will also buy SWA once these other airlines are out of the way, or if they will be kind enough to let them stay independent. Of coarse US will be long dead and burried, so there will no longer be any issues with them.
Once this is all wrapped up, I see him taking some time off before moving on to conquer the European airlines in his quest for Delta to rule the globe. After this mission is complete, I see Delta giving him another shot at working for them most likely in Atalanta perhaps as Anderson's Lap-Boy.
As silly as this all sounds, WT has most likely had dreams and visions of this becoming a reality. I got to give it to you WT, you are more of a dedicated Delta Cheerleader than anyone can ever be. Hell, you make the Dallas Cowboy's Cheerleaders look bad.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Except that in your zeal to paint me and DL as the aggressor, you can't or won't admit that the fundamentals of the industry have changed dramatically and that means that US' future is highly threatened if AA successfully reorganizes OR ends up in someone else's hands.
.
AA DOES have a chance to compete if they bring their costs down to COMPETITIVE levels with the rest of the industry - but not if they go passing out pay raises and not cutting the number of heads that need to be cut - and in all honesty should have been cut in 2003. The whole reason AA is in trouble now and the cuts didn't work is because they didn't cut to the levels that others cut in BK and then didn't use the advantage they gained with their cuts against other airlines - and remember that all of AA's network competitors except for CO were in BK or had just emerged just 7 years ago.
.
That's the cost side... the revenue side is that the mass that AA labor and US thinks an AA/US merger will gain doesn't solve the revenue problems which are a significant part of why AA has lost ground - and why US has been relegated to a last place position among the network airlines. It is not about total size - because AA/US will be in the same size league as DL and UA - but that AA/US will still be lacking in key regions and key cities, including NYC which is the largest source of premium revenue in the US.
.
It's not at all about DL alone. It is about the fact that AA did not move early enough to restructure itself, that US hasn't been seen as a meaningful player in the nationwide premium revenue market for a very long time, and that the combination of the two will not solve either's problems, esp. if it has to be bought by minimizing the cuts that are otherwise needed to give AA a chance to compete.
.
And it also doesn't change the reality that AA employees and creditors would be subsidizing a restructuring of US, something they will not be willing to do.
.
And it doesn't change the fact that there are other airlines including DL, UA, and WN that have all adapted and are winning in the marketplace.
Big business is not forgiving. If you can't compete or miss the opportunities to grow relative to other competitors, others will grow and you are left out to dry. US has tried for years to argue that it should be "entitled" to a merger because it is the smallest... but it is the smallest because it hasn't been able to successfully compete against other carriers for a very long time.
Adding a successfully restructured AA to the mix will only diminish the chances that AA will ultimately succeed long term.
.
And if US pushes a merger with AA and forces AMR into a bidding process, the chances are very high that AA will end up in the hands of a competitor.
.
AA's best option is to successfully restructure on its own and then pick its own partner after BK who can add the most value - and it probably won't be US.

 

[etops1]

Except that in your zeal to paint me and DL as the aggressor, you can't or won't admit that the fundamentals of the industry have changed dramatically and that means that US' future is highly threatened if AA successfully reorganizes OR ends up in someone else's hands.
.
AA DOES have a chance to compete if they bring their costs down to COMPETITIVE levels with the rest of the industry - but not if they go passing out pay raises and not cutting the number of heads that need to be cut - and in all honesty should have been cut in 2003. The whole reason AA is in trouble now and the cuts didn't work is because they didn't cut to the levels that others cut in BK and then didn't use the advantage they gained with their cuts against other airlines - and remember that all of AA's network competitors except for CO were in BK or had just emerged just 7 years ago.
.
That's the cost side... the revenue side is that the mass that AA labor and US thinks an AA/US merger will gain doesn't solve the revenue problems which are a significant part of why AA has lost ground - and why US has been relegated to a last place position among the network airlines. It is not about total size - because AA/US will be in the same size league as DL and UA - but that AA/US will still be lacking in key regions and key cities, including NYC which is the largest source of premium revenue in the US.
.
It's not at all about DL alone. It is about the fact that AA did not move early enough to restructure itself, that US hasn't been seen as a meaningful player in the nationwide premium revenue market for a very long time, and that the combination of the two will not solve either's problems, esp. if it has to be bought by minimizing the cuts that are otherwise needed to give AA a chance to compete.
.
And it also doesn't change the reality that AA employees and creditors would be subsidizing a restructuring of US, something they will not be willing to do.
.
And it doesn't change the fact that there are other airlines including DL, UA, and WN that have all adapted and are winning in the marketplace.
Big business is not forgiving. If you can't compete or miss the opportunities to grow relative to other competitors, others will grow and you are left out to dry. US has tried for years to argue that it should be "entitled" to a merger because it is the smallest... but it is the smallest because it hasn't been able to successfully compete against other carriers for a very long time.
Adding a successfully restructured AA to the mix will only diminish the chances that AA will ultimately succeed long term.
.
And if US pushes a merger with AA and forces AMR into a bidding process, the chances are very high that AA will end up in the hands of a competitor.
.
AA's best option is to successfully restructure on its own and then pick its own partner after BK who can add the most value - and it probably won't be US.
Gift Card

 

[Hopeful]

Has anyone thought of the possibility that if LCC wants an AA merger, that DL and UA might enter the fray and between all three of those carriers, AA becomes the victim of the "SUM OF THE PARTS ARE GREATER THAN THE WHOLE."

We might all get the bigger shaft if AA gets piece mealed with even more employees losing their jobs.

 

[wings396]

Yada, Yada, Their best option in your opinion. I guess their union leadership missed out on that. I bet they wish that they had consulted with you prior to signing a deal with Doug. You still have eluded as to why you eat, sleep, and poop Delta Airlines. I don't give a rat's arse what you say, NOBODY is this pro anything unless they have some sort of a motive or mission. If indeed you realy don't, I feel pity for your sorry Butt. Spending this much time at a friggen keyboard typing up all of the Delta BS for nothing is pathetic. Are you that lonely that you need to consume you entire life hyping up Delta? Go outside, the winter is over,get a life for yourself already.
As suggested by another poster, in order to do what you do, there is strong suspect as to you being either a PR firm for Delta, or actually on their dime.
I'm not buying into your spin or denial any longer, and I can't see anyone else doing so either. If you aren't Richard Anderson, you should be. Maybe they will come out with a costume of him before October 31st.......

 

[wings396]

Has anyone thought of the possibility that if LCC wants an AA merger, that DL and UA might enter the fray and between all three of those carriers, AA becomes the victim of the "SUM OF THE PARTS ARE GREATER THAN THE WHOLE."

We might all get the bigger shaft if AA gets piece mealed with even more employees losing their jobs.

Obviously, that isn't in the best interest of AA labor, so I don't see their 3 on the UCC going along with that plan.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Has anyone thought of the possibility that if LCC wants an AA merger, that DL and UA might enter the fray and between all three of those carriers, AA becomes the victim of the "SUM OF THE PARTS ARE GREATER THAN THE WHOLE."

We might all get the bigger shaft if AA gets piece mealed with even more employees losing their jobs.

precisely.... which is why I have argued that AA employees will fare best if AA is allowed to restructure on its own.
US will start a bidding process which others will win - and the chances are real high that AA will end up being parted out.
The reality is that US can't buy ALL of AA anyway because there are antitrust issues at DCA that prevent a combination of AA and US' current networks.
But Parker doesn't want to tell anyone that - and will wait until everyone agrees and then tell you that part of the AA has to be spun off - or else he can wait for the government to tell him that he must do that and then WN or B6 end up w/ a bunch more DCA slots, which will destroy the revenue synergies that will supposedly come from the merger when a low fare carrier grows to a 10% share of the DCA market - but the politicians will be growing how great it is for the consumer.

Who loses? AA employees who were told that AA-US could merge with no antitrust issues which end up happening while the merger related revenue synergies never happen because a competitor has grown to a size such that US/AA loses pricing power at DCA.

 

[Hopeful]

Obviously, that isn't in the best interest of AA labor, so I don't see their 3 on the UCC going along with that plan.

Yes of course..

But what can happen is DL and UA all getting in on the action simply because of a AA/US deal......peeking the interest of the rest of the UCC members.

 

[wings396]

precisely.... which is why I have argued that AA employees will fare best if AA is allowed to restructure on its own.
US will start a bidding process which others will win - and the chances are real high that AA will end up being parted out.
The reality is that US can't buy ALL of AA anyway because there are antitrust issues at DCA that prevent a combination of AA and US' current networks.
But Parker doesn't want to tell anyone that - and will wait until everyone agrees and then tell you that part of the AA has to be spun off - or else he can wait for the government to tell him that he must do that and then WN or B6 end up w/ a bunch more DCA slots, which will destroy the revenue synergies that will supposedly come from the merger when a low fare carrier grows to a 10% share of the DCA market - but the politicians will be growing how great it is for the consumer.

Who loses? AA employees who were told that AA-US could merge with no antitrust issues which end up happening while the merger related revenue synergies never happen because a competitor has grown to a size such that US/AA loses pricing power at DCA.

What WT is really saying here..
Let US die, Huge benefit to Delta. Let AA restructure on their own, still much smaller than Delta, and not much of a threat to Delta without pesky US in the picture. I'm sure Parker and APA didn't bother to do any homework about antitrust issues that may arise.
Are you sure there will be a so called "bidding war'? Was there a bidding war for NW when they were in BK, or did Delta already have them in bed snug under the covers?
Yes the AA people are much better off with 12000+ furloughs, a term sheet crammed down their throats, and no promise of growth or expansion that will put them on the same level as guess who??? Delta. If you would have taken the time to bone-up on what others including APA think of AA's standalone plan, they don't care for it. It does ensure that Horton and Co. will come out with more coin in their pockets, and they will still be at the helm to guide a ship that they couldn't before. Amazing how dumb Bates and his research people must be in comparison to you. I bet they are all reading this now, and saying "Damn, I wish that we would have retained that WT guy from the Aviation forms instead of these other dumb-ass experts." To think than such an industry expert braintrust like you is wasting away on these boards is sickening....
A true shame, and an injustice to the airline industry at large......

 

[eolesen]

"Perhaps his plan"
"assumption that labor"
"potential offer"
"very good chance"
"and I believe"
"possibility exists"

These are the words you use in statements time and time again.
These are words that are reserved for someone attempting to manipulate thought processes.
These are not the words of someone with factual information regarding the situation.

Dave, when you work in management too long, it becomes habit to make sure any statement you give provides ample cover to come back and say either "I told you so" or "I never said that" when the outcome becomes clearer.

Put another way, using non-committal qualifiers allows someone either too afraid or not informed enough to take a stance on the topic to state their opinions without being held accountable for them later.

Contrast WT's posts with Bob Owens. As much as I disagree with Bob on discussion topics, at least he's taking a stance. I don't think WT has any particular dog in the hunt -- my guess is he just likes to hear himself talk.

 

[TWU informer]

Dave, when you work in management too long, it becomes habit to make sure any statement you give provides ample cover to come back and say either "I told you so" or "I never said that" when the outcome becomes clearer.

Put another way, using non-committal qualifiers allows someone either too afraid or not informed enough to take a stance on the topic to state their opinions without being held accountable for them later.

Contrast WT's posts with Bob Owens. As much as I disagree with Bob on discussion topics, at least he's taking a stance. I don't think WT has any particular dog in the hunt -- my guess is he just likes to hear himself talk.

Yeah, I could possibly agree with WT, if I was not potentially threatened by the likely outcome.
Perhaps if I was older instead of almost eligible for retirment I would not be the least bit concerned about failed promises of an uncertain future.
I suspect, that someday I might look back and wonder what could have been. But for now I have concern about the hyporthetical negative outcome of this and the inderteminate future.

 

[diamondcutter]

What WT is really saying here..
Let US die, Huge benefit to Delta. Let AA restructure on their own, still much smaller than Delta, and not much of a threat to Delta without pesky US in the picture. I'm sure Parker and APA didn't bother to do any homework about antitrust issues that may arise.
Are you sure there will be a so called "bidding war'? Was there a bidding war for NW when they were in BK, or did Delta already have them in bed snug under the covers?
Yes the AA people are much better off with 12000+ furloughs, a term sheet crammed down their throats, and no promise of growth or expansion that will put them on the same level as guess who??? Delta. If you would have taken the time to bone-up on what others including APA think of AA's standalone plan, they don't care for it. It does ensure that Horton and Co. will come out with more coin in their pockets, and they will still be at the helm to guide a ship that they couldn't before. Amazing how dumb Bates and his research people must be in comparison to you. I bet they are all reading this now, and saying "Damn, I wish that we would have retained that WT guy from the Aviation forms instead of these other dumb-ass experts." To think than such an industry expert braintrust like you is wasting away on these boards is sickening....
A true shame, and an injustice to the airline industry at large......

Great post. I think WT will implode if and when this happens. Pay no attention to his lengthy Jimmity Cricket lessons . He loses the crowd as he spins his cane around.

 

[WorldTraveler]

my dog in the fight is TRUTH - that people know what they are getting into - instead of the disappointments and mistruths that have been a part of the airline industry.
.
The biggest mistruth is that US can do anything about the 1113 process - and that they are trying to stop AA's efforts.
.
We will have to see after the 1113 is thru if AA employees are near as interested in a merger with US>

 

[777 / 767 / 757 Love]

you are far from a regular flier you scream managment lackie paid to come on here and post

dont worry your not alone there are already a few here but i see your task is the merger

This is exactly why labor is viewed the way it is by the majority of the public. Because rather than trying to look at this from all angles, you assume anyone who has any opinion other than "kill management" must be a management "lackie". First, learn to spell, its "lacky" not "lackie". Second, I am a customer, and one that spends a TON of money with American and one who flies so often to Asia the #1s know who I am. Third, my father spent more time as a member of the APA and flying planes for this company than many current employees have been out of high school.

So, before you tear into someone who BY NO MEANS THINKS AMERICAN's MANAGEMENT team is brilliant, perhaps you should take a second to consider other view points. If you think other airline management teams are any better, why did they ALL have to do exactly what AA is doing now? Doesn't matter who runs this airline, as long as the prices of tix are still at 1990 levels, this industry is going to be screwed. IF you think for a second that Parker cares about any AA employee, my answer would be then why can't he get his own employee relations in line?

Hate me and throw me to the side as someone planted by management if you want, but I assure you, I am many things, a friend of management is not one of them.

Cheers,
e46e92

 

[wings396]

my dog in the fight is TRUTH - that people know what they are getting into - instead of the disappointments and mistruths that have been a part of the airline industry.
.
The biggest mistruth is that US can do anything about the 1113 process - and that they are trying to stop AA's efforts.
.
We will have to see after the 1113 is thru if AA employees are near as interested in a merger with US>

Yes, yes, the truth. Nothing but the spinning Delta truth.
WT, I think that you may be losing your crowd, if you ever had one that is.....
Thi

It's been a rough year in ATL. First that damn SWA purchase of AT, now this pesky US that won't die getting involved with AA....