Who wants a merger with US?

[wings396]

WT, what I think US should do is forget about this deal with AA. Just throw in the towel,and let Delta come in and have it all. Delta is interested in all of AA, correct? They don't just want the SA routes and a few other select items right? Then I'm sure they can take on all of the AA employees without having to furlough any too. I'm sure there would be no antitrust issues with Delta having nearly 50% of the US market wrapped up. Then they can just buy off all of the employees so they vote out the unions. I see Delta cherry picking what they want, then leaving the carcass of AA to die off in time, kind of like PanAm. Your BS agenda is so friggen transparent that its laughable. I hope your motivators are paying you OT for working 24/7 to convince everyone how bad this US/ AA deal is.
Just think then your Bro can work for Delta, and maybe he can get you on with them......AGAIN..
You really should consider changing your user name to
Worldspinmaster....

 

[Mrs. McFly]

Well said… and you highlight exactly what I have been saying… Parker’s promises to AA employees are too good to be true… someone is going to pay the price because AA/US can’t operate with 25K more employees than DL or UA = and all 3 will be comparably sized.
And it is absolutely certain that excess capacity will be leaving the combined airline – that is precisely why US has a revenue disadvantage to AA, DL, and UA because it has more capacity in its system to support premium revenues… but like AA, US has no choice but to keep the capacity in or else shrink further relative to its peers.
If a merger actually occurs, then yes a merged forum is appropriate – but until then it is all speculation and you can participate in whatever forum you want to discuss the issue….


Also well said.. but it is precisely that AA can restructure to work as a standalone airline that it is unlikely it NEEDS to merge. An airline in BK has the ability to rightsize its costs…. US does not…. So Parker wants AA to make the cuts for the combined group in BK… but since he is trying to win over AA labor, he is promising reduced cuts for them – and then someone else will have to pay the price. Wanna guess where those cuts will come?
There is no such thing as free lunch.

Anyone with any amount of common sense know that this is probably a pie in the sky deal that is going to be lopsided in our favor, but cause even more problems long term.

 

[FWAAA]

Everyone needs to realize that AA has until September to submit their own plan. It is their right under 1113.
Unless AA relents on the merger issue, we would not see anything substantial until then.

True, but the creditors committee could petiton to shorten the exclusivity period. Here is the language from the order extending management's exclusivity until September:

provided, however, that should the UCC file a motion to shorten the Debtors’ Exclusive Periods, the Debtors shall bear the burden in accordance with 11 U.S.C. § 1121(d) to show cause to retain or further extend such Exclusive Periods

http://www.amrcaseinfo.com/pdflib/1987_15463.pdf

If the committee petitions to shorten the exclusivity period, management still has the ability to respond and argue that it should be permitted to retain exclusivity.

 

[Mrs. McFly]

i wonder if P would be willing to sweeten the pot (if you will) for the contracts jus to pass in exchange for the support of a merger or take over of AA?

Not sure if you mean AA or US, but I think it is pretty clear that DP has washed his hands of you guys (at least for the moment) and has made plenty of promises elsewhere to get the crown jewel. It makes me very uncomfortable that some may have been sold at for my so-called benefit.

 

[WorldTraveler]

True, but the creditors committee could petiton to shorten the exclusivity period. Here is the language from the order extending management's exclusivity until September:


http://www.amrcaseinfo.com/pdflib/1987_15463.pdf

If the committee petitions to shorten the exclusivity period, management still has the ability to respond and argue that it should be permitted to retain exclusivity.

but it also means that if AMR's exclusivity ends and US gets to offer a merger proposal, so will others. Parker would like to think he is going to have an advantage but there is no way he can come up w/ a proposal superior to those brought by BA/IAG, DL, and/or TPG or other investment groups.
.
wings,
DL likely WOULD NOT take all of AA if it came down to a competitive bid any more than US could - because there are antitrust issues that would affect DCA with AA/US just as much - and perhaps more so than DL/AA at NYC since DL even after the slot deal has a smaller percent of NYC slots than US has at DCA.
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But DL doesn't need ORD as a hub - although they would like to have a decent local presence. Perhaps B6 or AS would like to have an ORD hub.
AS might be interested in moving into the NYC market big time as well... and of course, B6 could still grow its NYC presence w/o running into ATI issues.
DL would gain all of what it needs by the MIA and DFW hubs, the LAX and RDU -LHR slots and maybe a few more LHR slots to beef up BOS, JFK, and ATL.
It is also very possible that AS and/or B6 might acquire the appopriate a/c and choose to become TATL carriers if able to acquire LHR slots. TATL presence or not, AA, B6, or WN could increase their presence in an alliance - removing the possibility that one or the other of the alliances will be without a US partner.
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Obviously there is a certain amount of conjecturing but the industry will continue to consolidate - and it won't just involve DL, although DL does have the ability to move first.
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The strongest will win - that's the way it works in business.
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If AA successfully restructures and emerges on its own, then AA will probably merge with B6 very soon while DL will acquire AS.
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If US forces a bidding process for AA, US will probably lose and then a scenario like I proposed along with an eventual UA-US merger will result.
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There won't be 4 network airlines plus WN plus a couple more nationwide carriers in five years.
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You can count on that.

 

[wings396]

but it also means that if AMR's exclusivity ends and US gets to offer a merger proposal, so will others. Parker would like to think he is going to have an advantage but there is no way he can come up w/ a proposal superior to those brought by BA/IAG, DL, and/or TPG or other investment groups.
.
wings,
DL likely WOULD NOT take all of AA if it came down to a competitive bid any more than US could - because there are antitrust issues that would affect DCA with AA/US just as much - and perhaps more so than DL/AA at NYC since DL even after the slot deal has a smaller percent of NYC slots than US has at DCA.
.
But DL doesn't need ORD as a hub - although they would like to have a decent local presence. Perhaps B6 or AS would like to have an ORD hub.
AS might be interested in moving into the NYC market big time as well... and of course, B6 could still grow its NYC presence w/o running into ATI issues.
DL would gain all of what it needs by the MIA and DFW hubs, the LAX and RDU -LHR slots and maybe a few more LHR slots to beef up BOS, JFK, and ATL.
It is also very possible that AS and/or B6 might acquire the appopriate a/c and choose to become TATL carriers if able to acquire LHR slots. TATL presence or not, AA, B6, or WN could increase their presence in an alliance - removing the possibility that one or the other of the alliances will be without a US partner.
.
Obviously there is a certain amount of conjecturing but the industry will continue to consolidate - and it won't just involve DL, although DL does have the ability to move first.
.
The strongest will win - that's the way it works in business.
.
If AA successfully restructures and emerges on its own, then AA will probably merge with B6 very soon while DL will acquire AS.
.
If US forces a bidding process for AA, US will probably lose and then a scenario like I proposed along with an eventual UA-US merger will result.
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There won't be 4 network airlines plus WN plus a couple more nationwide carriers in five years.
.
You can count on that.

So you are telling me that AA labor would go along with any of the above mentioned options over what Parker has offered them? Obviously the pay is a major plus, but he has offered them a promising future by growing the airline along with no furloughs, and an early out program for the FA group. Now that they have these options, nothing less is going to cut it. Lets not forget that they hold 3 seats/votes on the UCC. I think that you are grasping at straws here WT. You know darn well that Delta isn't going to be able or willing to make these same offers to the AA employees. I don't see the fragmentation you suggest being in labors best interest either.

 

[WorldTraveler]

So you are telling me that AA labor would go along with any of the above mentioned options over what Parker has offered them? Obviously the pay is a major plus, but he has offered them a promising future by growing the airline along with no furloughs, and an early out program for the FA group. Now that they have these options, nothing less is going to cut it. Lets not forget that they hold 3 seats/votes on the UCC. I think that you are grasping at straws here WT. You know darn well that Delta isn't going to be able or willing to make these same offers to the AA employees. I don't see the fragmentation you suggest being in labors best interest either.

see, the problem is that you believe that Parker can do what he is promising - and I and alot of people don't believe he can. Perhaps his plan is to throw the US employees under the bus in order to gain the hand of the AA people.
But what doesn't change is that AA and US combined have 25,000 more employees than DL and UA while DL, UA, and AA/US will be about the same size. There is no way that AA/US can combine and have as many extra employees than DL or UA have for a similar sized airline.
Thus, the assumption that labor will be "safe" under Parker's scenario but at risk under another scenario is false.
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It also comes down to the finances of a potential offer - and there is no way that US can beat a bid by multiple other partners - and the creditors are going to look for the BEST deal.
All the US fans have failed to grasp that reality from the very beginning.
Parker knows it - he is just trying to do all he can to build support before the competitive part of the process begins.
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And I do believe that a combination of multiple carriers could provide not only as much job securitiy as a combined AA/US deal could offer but also provide higher wages..

And there is a very good chance that DL would take TUL if it acquires the DFW plus MIA hubs or more of AA. DL could use more maintenance capacity and I believe part of the reason they haven't expanded is because they know the possibility exists of an AA acquisition. And DL does outsource less than US - and also insources a whole lot too.

 

[TWU informer]

see, the problem is that you believe that Parker can do what he is promising - and I and alot of people don't believe he can. Perhaps his plan is to throw the US employees under the bus in order to gain the hand of the AA people.
But what doesn't change is that AA and US combined have 25,000 more employees than DL and UA while DL, UA, and AA/US will be about the same size. There is no way that AA/US can combine and have as many extra employees than DL or UA have for a similar sized airline.
Thus, the assumption that labor will be "safe" under Parker's scenario but at risk under another scenario is false.
.
It also comes down to the finances of a potential offer - and there is no way that US can beat a bid by multiple other partners - and the creditors are going to look for the BEST deal.
All the US fans have failed to grasp that reality from the very beginning.
Parker knows it - he is just trying to do all he can to build support before the competitive part of the process begins.
.
And I do believe that a combination of multiple carriers could provide not only as much job securitiy as a combined AA/US deal could offer but also provide higher wages..

And there is a very good chance that DL would take TUL if it acquires the DFW plus MIA hubs or more of AA. DL could use more maintenance capacity and I believe part of the reason they haven't expanded is because they know the possibility exists of an AA acquisition. And DL does outsource less than US - and also insources a whole lot too.

"Perhaps his plan"
"assumption that labor"
"potential offer"
"very good chance"
"and I believe"
"possibility exists"

These are the words you use in statements time and time again.
These are words that are reserved for someone attempting to manipulate thought processes.
These are not the words of someone with factual information regarding the situation.

 

[Kellerguy]

The staff reductions will have already been completed by the time he could complete the merger should the UCC decide he has a better business plan. I'm sure he wouldn't recall people, so the 25000 more employees may not be the case, more like 11000. Eagle has I think around 10K, also not included in an apples and apples comparison.

 

[MCI transplant]

<_< ------- More on the subject: http://travel.usatoday.com/flights/story/2012-04-22/American-merger-could-mean-higher-fares-analysts-warn/54473796/1

 

[TWU informer]

No Union Employees trust AA Management anymore and with good cause.

If we choose to trust Parker then we stand a chance.

Until he proves unworthy of our trust, nobody can convince us that this new found trust should be broken.

It is AA Management's fault that they are no longer trusted by AA Employees.

And this is why this is happening so quick and easy.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Just remember that even if the employees choose to trust Parker, he has to convince the creditors as well and labor constitutes only 1/3 of the creditors.
The employees may jump on the first offer that comes across their desk but the creditors will take the best offer - and it isn't hard to trump the first offer that is laid down.... thus, it makes a lot of sense for the other parties not to be laying their offer on the table or making promises they will later have to withdraw.
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I wish you luck... but in BK, the rules change - labor has even less control and the focus on getting the best return for the company (who is now required to act on behalf of the creditors) is even more engrained in law.

 

[Mrs. McFly]

No Union Employees trust AA Management anymore and with good cause.

If we choose to trust Parker then we stand a chance.

Until he proves unworthy of our trust, nobody can convince us that this new found trust should be broken.

It is AA Management's fault that they are no longer trusted by AA Employees.
Whatvl
Just a thought...what if management is gone part of agreements and not a merger?

And this is why this is happening so quick and easy.

 

[767one]

Just remember that even if the employees choose to trust Parker, he has to convince the creditors as well and labor constitutes only 1/3 of the creditors.
The employees may jump on the first offer that comes across their desk but the creditors will take the best offer - and it isn't hard to trump the first offer that is laid down.... thus, it makes a lot of sense for the other parties not to be laying their offer on the table or making promises they will later have to withdraw.
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I wish you luck... but in BK, the rules change - labor has even less control and the focus on getting the best return for the company (who is now required to act on behalf of the creditors) is even more engrained in law.

It would not be the first time that employees/unions have been able to affect a merger. If the creditors realize that the best offer moneywise for themselves will result in labor chaos for years they might be convinced to take less money for the security of a committed labor force.

 

[767one]

WT, what I think US should do is forget about this deal with AA. Just throw in the towel,and let Delta come in and have it all. Delta is interested in all of AA, correct? They don't just want the SA routes and a few other select items right? Then I'm sure they can take on all of the AA employees without having to furlough any too. I'm sure there would be no antitrust issues with Delta having nearly 50% of the US market wrapped up. Then they can just buy off all of the employees so they vote out the unions. I see Delta cherry picking what they want, then leaving the carcass of AA to die off in time, kind of like PanAm. Your BS agenda is so friggen transparent that its laughable. I hope your motivators are paying you OT for working 24/7 to convince everyone how bad this US/ AA deal is.
Just think then your Bro can work for Delta, and maybe he can get you on with them......AGAIN..
You really should consider changing your user name to
Worldspinmaster....

I agree with your post. I also wonder what changes would be required to get regulatory approval fpr DAL/AA when much smaller mergers have been canned due to anti-competitive concerns. I think that by the time regulators are done there would be very little left of AA or the employees there. More that likely the only reason for DAL to take AA would be to remove a competitor.