3rd try for Delta and China

[Redbone]

By 2008, DL may no longer exist. (sort of how WT has vanished from this board)

I'm using up my miles on them now!!!!

How many times did we say the same thing about UNITED's liquidation?

You seem to throw that out there very easily in deference to another airline.

 

[whlinder]

I am sure the writer understands that other airlines will apply. That should have been easily perceived.

Yes, but without knowing what route they are applying for, it is hard to say that DL is the favorite at this point.

DL ATL-PVG would be favored over NW DTW-PVG, but we have no idea what NW will apply for this round.

 

[Cosmo]

DL ATL-PVG would be favored over NW DTW-PVG, but we have no idea what NW will apply for this round.

IMHO, it doesn't matter what NW applies for, as long as they still operate all of their current three daily U.S.-China flights via NRT. This was very clearly spelled out in the DOT's decision awarding this year's frequencies to United, in the following quote on page 18 of DOT's Order.

Northwest’s proposed service would offer convenient connections through Detroit from a substantial behind-gateway catchment area. However, Northwest’s proposal is largely duplicative of the Detroit-Shanghai service that it currently provides one-stop via Tokyo, and if it chose to do so, it could provide nonstop Detroit-Shanghai service without the award of additional frequencies. Northwest’s election to provide all of its China service over Tokyo -- whatever its commercial basis -- results in the U.S. public’s receiving fewer nonstop choices to China than otherwise might be provided. In these circumstances, we tentatively conclude that an additional award to Northwest would not be an efficient use of valuable frequencies in the restricted U.S.-China market when compared to the benefits of United’s Washington, D.C. (Dulles)-Beijing proposal, which will provide the first-ever nonstop service to China from the largest U.S. metropolitan O&D market without such service. [Footnotes omitted.]

After reading that paragraph, and especially the part that I bolded, how can anyone come to any other conclusion regarding NW's chances of receiving additional frequencies in any future China route cases at DOT?

 

[whlinder]

Cosmo, I totally agree, I was just trying to make up an example to help illustrate my contention that I don't think DL can be declared the "favorite" without knowing what the competition for the routes is going to be.

Let me try again:

DL ATL-PVG would be favored over AA Fargo-PVG, but we have no idea what AA will apply for this round.

 

[Cosmo]

Cosmo, I totally agree, I was just trying to make up an example to help illustrate my contention that I don't think DL can be declared the "favorite" without knowing what the competition for the routes is going to be.

Sorry I went off on a tangent regarding NW's chances, but I agree with your basic premise as it relates to DL.

 

[FWAAA]

Cosmo, I totally agree, I was just trying to make up an example to help illustrate my contention that I don't think DL can be declared the "favorite" without knowing what the competition for the routes is going to be.

Let me try again:

DL ATL-PVG would be favored over AA Fargo-PVG, but we have no idea what AA will apply for this round.

Agree with both of you.

From reading the 13 year olds' posts on Flyertalk, you gotta be betting that AA applies for LIT-PVG.