Delta opens line hangar at NRT.

[commavia]

Nobody ever said NRT would be reduced "down to nothingness."  But way to throw up meaningless babble to muddy the waters of past predictions proven horribly inaccurate by time.
 
What many of us - accurately - predicted literally years ago was that Delta would draw down its NRT operation as a "hub" because Delta was simply fighting a perpetually losing battle there against far larger, stronger competitors.  And, indeed, looking back now in the rear view mirror, that is exactly what has happened.  Delta has eliminated flights from NRT to SFO, ICN, PEK, HKG, KHH and PUS and reduced capacity from NRT to MSP, SEA, HNL, PVG, etc.  The Northwest hub at NRT built almost entirely (or, at times, entirely) on 747s is now largely a 777/A330 operation at most, and a smaller one at that.  Contrary to the fanatical diatribes from February 2010, Delta did not, in fact, dump capacity into Japan until JAL was bankrupted; instead, JAL has now restructured, is producing substantial profits, and is growing again, using the 787 to open up new markets from NRT - like BOS and SAN - that Delta could never possibly have made work.
 
But never mind - let's get back to how Delta opening a line hangar at NRT clearly means that AA is losing its grip on South America.

 

[WorldTraveler]

no, DL is not facing a perpetually losing battle against larger, stronger competitors.

DL IS the largest competitor in the US- Japan market. For you to continue to post what you post in light of that fact is nothing but an indication of your ignorance of the market.

What you cannot grasp is that NW's Asian network was ENTIRELY built on connecting traffic via NRT until DTW-PVG was started

DL's Asian network has been dramatically diversified to nonstops, amazing exactly what AA has done.

the difference is that DL hasn't given up its share of the US-Japan market and has grown its share of the US-non Japan Asia market.

DL will pull down capacity from Japan to the rest of Asia where it was largely connecting.

IN case you missed it, the 787 is a smaller aircraft than the 333... given AA's resounding success in the Japan market, can you tell me how many DAILY flights AA operates between the US and Japan... and then include JL's count, even though DOT statistics show that the majority of JL's passengers are their own, not AA ticketed passengers.

You can fixate on the AA/JL JV and what DL did or did not but the simple fact is that even combined AA/JL is not even close to being the same size in the US-Japan market as DL is on a standalone basis.


for some reason, you seem to want to keep bringing up the Japan market despite the fact that there is abundant evidence to show that your jilted view of the market is not accurate and in fact DL has succeeded on its own in Japan.

And, again, AA loses boatloads of money flying to Asia while DL is profitable. I'm sure you are very proud of that.

Latin America will rise and fall on its own. Let's see how AA's RASM stacks up for Latin America plus other regions but something is dramatically pulling down AA's RASM performance even worse than in the 3rd quarter.

feel free to let us know in advance why AA is posting flat RASM growth while DL is 3-5 percent higher.

AA will be in good company with no RASM growth.... DL and WN are the two carriers that are posed to see 4-5% RASM growth while AA and UA's RASM growth is flat... and B6 just decided to jump in and help make AA and UA feel right at home as well.

 

[Kev3188]

But you do a great job of alienating anyone with an opposing opinion.

Your "so you're a ramper" comment directed at Kevin was nothing short of malice and disdain.

But we're used to it.

One of these days I'll "learn my place."

As for the topic itself: What's really fun is that the activity in/out of NRT seems to affirm many of the ideas Dawg has thrown around so far...

 

[WorldTraveler]

Kev,
there is nothing wrong with your participation in this topic.

What I have said is that DL's current schedules as well as those of UA with a much smaller beyond Asia network argue against DL doing any kind of maintenance on its widebody aircraft.

We (including dawg) are in agreement that maintenance that can be done involves the narrowbody aircraft that serve beach destinations. While some people think that DL's presence in those markets will shrink, no one who has any connection to DL believes that will happen.

Dawg and I are of the same opinion that DL will have a strong presence in the US-Japan market for years to come.

 

[Kev3188]

Kev,
there is nothing wrong with your participation in this topic.

Who said there was?

Your "disparaging" comments toward me are separate from whether or not it's okay for me to be here.

What I have said is that DL's current schedules as well as those of UA with a much smaller beyond Asia network argue against DL doing any kind of maintenance on its widebody aircraft.

That seems to be inaccurate- certainly within the context of line MTX.

We (including dawg) are in agreement that maintenance that can be done involves the narrowbody aircraft that serve beach destinations.

Not me. Looks like there's some WB's with a good lot of downtime as well...

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Some places with line hangars would do aircraft swaps each day during long turns. The aircraft would then have about 20 hours of hangar time to do an A check or clear MEL's. Some of those would not show up on a schedule. Spare aircraft would be rotated in and out of the schedule this way. DTW was used just this way with our line hangar.

 

[WorldTraveler]

and that is precisely the point I have made. If DL is doing that, they are INTENTIONALLY leaving aircraft at NRT even though it is not necessary from a schedules standpoint.

and if they are intentionally leaving aircraft at NRT, they are doing it specifically to leave widebody aircraft in Asia and do in-house maintenance in the process.

you are right that type of activity does not show up on the schedule because cross outs can't be seen from schedule data.

and Kev it is precisely the type of comment that Q has made here that if you substantiated would show that you are using facts to participate in the discussion.

There is nothing disparaging to ask you to use facts and provide evidence to make your point.

 

[topDawg]

yes, and the 747s are also going away....

I esp. like the part about "more than 100 Delta TechOps professaionals"

increased maintenance capabilities anywhere around the work is a good, no great thing and even more so when it is done by DL people using DL facilities.

DL's presence in Asia will only be strengthened.

FWIW this is not an increase in staffing(or at least not much) 
 
The station at NRT is big. Also has the wheel and brake shop. 
 

 
We'll see.  The way the rest of the NRT operation is going - I think it's only a matter of time before frequency and capacity in the beach markets starts shrinking further.  It's certainly true that those beach markets exist to cater primarily to leisure O&D that likely isn't going away, but at least some amount of Delta's competitiveness in these leisure O&D markets is driven by its overall presence in the NRT/Japan O&D market, and that presence continues to get less and less competitive as Delta's offering out of NRT to Asia continues to shrink relative to JAL and ANA.  Once low-fare carriers start flying to some of those beach markets - which I see as only a matter of time - I struggle to imagine how Delta will be able to continue justifying the deployment of valuable assets in such a way.  I don't necessarily think Delta will entirely exit the Japan-GUM/SPN/Hawaii market, but I, personally, think that at least some of that "NRT beach flying" is, indeed, "going away" with time.
 
Either way, this line maintenance hangar at NRT doesn't change the bigger picture, which is that Delta's overall presence in Japan is shrinking - as well it naturally should, seeing as Delta is and always will be far, far smaller and weaker in the market than the hometown heavy hitters JAL and ANA, and that Delta now has SEA as a viable replacement for most of NRT's network role.

FWIW we have been told the hub is going to remain steady outside of possible PVG/TPE shifts. MNL/GUM/SPN/ROR/BKK/SIN make money but wont do so from the us. 
 

the hangar in and of itself is not a profit center, E.

If Dawg tells us DL is going to use it for insourcing maintenance from other airlines, it might be.

for now, it is a cost item.

and the whole basis of the topic involves DL's future in Tokyo.

I believe it is solid and DL will remain as the single largest carrier between the US and Japan just as they are now.

but DL's focus will shift from a hub operation to a point to point operation

Its a line station so chances are at some point Delta will do some work for someone at some time. Generally the line doesn't have set contracts like base does (contract for xx c-checks) because generally it drop in work that gets done. Delta does have some line contracts with airlines like HA to do overnights (I believe PHX does 767 A checks for example). Anything is possible here. 
 

.

good talk
 

Some places with line hangars would do aircraft swaps each day during long turns. The aircraft would then have about 20 hours of hangar time to do an A check or clear MEL's. Some of those would not show up on a schedule. Spare aircraft would be rotated in and out of the schedule this way. DTW was used just this way with our line hangar.

Good point Glenn. 
 

and that is precisely the point I have made. If DL is doing that, they are INTENTIONALLY leaving aircraft at NRT even though it is not necessary from a schedules standpoint.

and if they are intentionally leaving aircraft at NRT, they are doing it specifically to leave widebody aircraft in Asia and do in-house maintenance in the process.

you are right that type of activity does not show up on the schedule because cross outs can't be seen from schedule data.

and Kev it is precisely the type of comment that Q has made here that if you substantiated would show that you are using facts to participate in the discussion.

There is nothing disparaging to ask you to use facts and provide evidence to make your point.

Delta has since the merger kept an active spare 747 at NRT. 
 
Now that the 744 is down to DTW-NRT-MNL I imagine they have moved the spare to DTW. 
 
 
 
and the reason they kept the spare was to get touch time on airplanes. FWIW. 

 

[commavia]

FWIW we have been told the hub is going to remain steady outside of possible PVG/TPE shifts. MNL/GUM/SPN/ROR/BKK/SIN make money but wont do so from the us. 

 
And FWIW, that is exactly what many of us have been predicting for literally years - over the endless, mindless whining and ruminating of certain self-appointed industry experts.
 
There are some markets - like BKK, SIN, MNL, etc. - that simply cannot work nonstop from the U.S., on any airline, for operational and/or economic reasons.  There are other markets - like HNL and GUM - that will always be able to fill planes from NRT simply based on O&D alone.
 
I don't disagree that Delta may well be able to make nonstops from NRT to these markets work going forward - albeit, I suspect, at reduced frequency and/or capacity - but, frankly, the prediction that many have been making that, in general, Delta is and has been fighting a losing battle at NRT has been pretty much proven accurate.  Richard Anderson himself has said as much.  NRT is simply not competitive for Delta anymore as a true "hub" to Asia as it once was.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

NWA had hangar space at NRT, SEA, JFK, LAX, BOS, DTW, ATL, MSP, I may have missed a few, SFO (Superbay) as needed, we actally got along with our neighbors and were allowed to use space as needed. We did A checks on the ramp at MCO on the DC-10 (had a tail dock on the ramp that we moved around). Of course our resident expert on everything will clear all this up for those of us who don't know about operations.

I am not sure why this is news. I guess it is for Delta, but it is just a resumption of what we always had at Northwest (Orient).

 

[FWAAA]

indeed it does. does AA do maintenance on that aircraft?

Given that it sits there for about 18 hours, I have to assume that it gets more than the ETOPS check. I think that mechanics have previously posted that AA is outsourcing 777 A checks at NRT and GRU and LHR, all of which see 777s sit for 12-18 hours, although LHR mechanics are in fact employees of American Airlines. Dunno about GRU or NRT.

 

[WorldTraveler]

notably, DL has its own maintenance at GRU, LHR, and NRT.

And we realize what NW did, Q. DL and every other carrier did the same thing at one time as well.

the significance is that DL is renting hangar space in a city that some argue is a dying city for DL and others are convinced that DL is simply outsourcing to other carriers every chance they can get.

Renting hangar space for DL mechanics to use in a region where MROs are a dime a dozen counters both of those assertions.

 

And FWIW, that is exactly what many of us have been predicting for literally years - over the endless, mindless whining and ruminating of certain self-appointed industry experts.
 
There are some markets - like BKK, SIN, MNL, etc. - that simply cannot work nonstop from the U.S., on any airline, for operational and/or economic reasons.  There are other markets - like HNL and GUM - that will always be able to fill planes from NRT simply based on O&D alone.
 
I don't disagree that Delta may well be able to make nonstops from NRT to these markets work going forward - albeit, I suspect, at reduced frequency and/or capacity - but, frankly, the prediction that many have been making that, in general, Delta is and has been fighting a losing battle at NRT has been pretty much proven accurate.  Richard Anderson himself has said as much.  NRT is simply not competitive for Delta anymore as a true "hub" to Asia as it once was.

no, you have consistently been arguing that DL's position in Japan would weaken including its position in beach markets and to the US.

no one has doubted that DL's position in the Japan-intra-Asia position will be reduced.

But you have repeatedly and wrongly stated that DL's position not only is now weakening in the beach markets including Hawaii from Japan as well as in TPAC from Japan that DL's position is being reduced and will be reduced and that is absolutely wrong.

the entire US-Japan market is shrinking; DL's share of the beach and TPAC local markets from Japan is unchanged.

 

[commavia]

That's because "Delta's position in Japan" has weakened, much as some can't accept that reality (what else is new?).  Let's not move the goalposts, or rewrite history, or try and distract from failed predictions of the past.  This isn't about Delta's position just intra-Asia, or just in the beach markets, or just TPAC, or about the state of the "entire US-Japan market," or DL's "share" of any market or submarket.  "Delta's position in Japan," and the NRT hub, is smaller and weaker than it was five years ago, let alone compared to pre-merger.
 
Delta's "position in the Japan-intra-Asia position" is (was) an integral part of "Delta's position in Japan," so the dramatic pulldown of NRT-Asia, unless offset by an equally dramatic expansion in some other markets out of NRT/Japan, would naturally lead to a decline overall - and that is exactly what's happened.  And Delta opening a line maintenance hangar at NRT doesn't change that.
 
Such detachment from reality.

 

[WorldTraveler]

no, DL's position has not weakened by any kind of statistical measure.

and your reply confirms that you ARE NOT saying the same thing that other posters have said for years.

You are telling a story which is different from what other people believe and cannot be supported by fact.

if you believe it has, then you should be able to provide factual data to show it.

Your perception of DL's weakened position is not based on any kind of reality but your own biased opinion.

DL or NW never intended to be a significant player in the NRT-Asia market - doing so was a byproduct of their NRT hub.

It was obvious from the initial talks about a DL-NW merger that one of the key drivers was that NW did not have the US presence necessary to be able to fly nonstop to Asia from multiple parts of the US outside of its own Midwest hubs.

Given that it was well known that HND would open to TPAC traffic and there was the risk of diluting the value of NRT as a hub - not just for DL but for ALL carriers that hub there - DL and NW realized they needed a merger that would provide more presence on the west coast - which DL has and continues to grow, in NYC where the merger immediately made NRT work while AA has left the market, and from potentially other hubs which the 350 will open.

The yen devaluation has and will continue to harm Japanese tourism to the US and with it the size of the market for ALL. DL has NOT lost any more of the Japan-US market than has any other carrier.
Japan's protectionist measures regarding NRT and HND that go back decades will now have consequences on both JL and NH because other hubs in Asia are available with more slots and with home carriers that are more efficient.

We could know in days but reports of conversations between DL and ICN prove that DL is not going to give up its position in the intra-Asia market and in fact is considering expanding its network in order to gain a larger presence.

Dawg and I are of the same opinion that regardless of what DL does with the intra-Asia market, DL will continue to have a large presence from multiple hubs in the US to Japan. DL will also maintain a strong presence in the Japan beach market.

UA has practically dehubbed NRT and still manages to have the 2nd largest number of seats to Japan. Despite what you and others want to believe, AA and UA both sell relatively few numbers of seats on their JV partners' TPAC flights and the same is true in reverse. If it weren't true, then AA would be a whole lot larger in Japan as a result of the JL traffic that it carries - but that doesn't happen.

DL is a powerful force in Asia - the single largest carrier across the Pacific from Japan and very likely will continue to be. There is nothing that limits DL's ability to compete in the local Japan markets with or without a hub.

if you have evidence to prove your point, it is more than time for you to show it. quite simply, there is no data that shows that DL's position in the US-Japan TPAC or the Japan beach markets is shrinking.

 

[commavia]

Delta has eliminated nonstops from NRT to SFO, ICN, PUS, PEK, KHH and HKG, and compared to the heady days of the hub's peak, moved to lower frequency and/or smaller aircraft from NRT to MSP, SEA, PDX, JFK, HNL, PVG, BKK, SIN, etc. - and this doesn't constitute Delta reducing its presence in Japan?  Good for Delta that they have a line maintenance hangar at NRT.  Congratulations.  It still doesn't change the fact that Delta continues to shrink in Japan as the NRT hub is progressively dismantled - as said, precisely as many of us predicted years ago over the protestations of those who assured that NRT was just fine, and Delta would dump capacity to bankrupt JAL.  We see how that worked out.  Again - detachment from reality.