Gloom and Doom at the Conference

[Hopeful]

My manage was telling us about the Fall Leadership Conference this past week.
Nothing but gloom and doom came from Arpey and Co. Beginning 2009, AA may greatly reduce the size of American Airlines and that more layoffs of a much grander scale are imminent. They are still crying that we have among the highest labor costs in the industry.

This fits in well with current contract negotiations.

All I can say is "SHRINK, BABY, SHRINK."

 

[American Air Surf]

My manage was telling us about the Fall Leadership Conference this past week.
Nothing but gloom and doom came from Arpey and Co. Beginning 2009, AA may greatly reduce the size of American Airlines and that more layoffs of a much grander scale are imminent. They are still crying that we have among the highest labor costs in the industry.

This fits in well with current contract negotiations.

All I can say is "SHRINK, BABY, SHRINK."

All, I can say, is we are now in a "Perfect Storm", Financially, Capacity/Yield, Economially (U.S. Debt = Entitlements) and the cost of Oil-(Which is by the way artiically low, due in part to the U.S./World- Recession) and demand destruction. Shrink, baby, Shrink will be the Order of the day. I'm a Union member (let's forget the Executive PUP, for now, that is aleady baked in the Cake). There are only "two" choices, in the current environment- Cut Hight Cost employee's (VBR), layoffs, resignations- , and BUY new airplanes- (re: Fuel efficiency). There is no where else to cut- Unfortunately, in todays environment, it will come down to this- "You will be lucky to have a job". I hate the Executive perks too, BUT in the current environment there are few choices and few options left. THERE ARE JUST TO MANY THINGS WRONG, AND THEY WON'T GET ANY BETTER FOR YEARS.............

 

[FWAAA]

And in other news, here's an analyst who thinks AMR is well-positioned to have a decent 2009:

Derchin predicts that the airline industry is in line to record a small profit in the fourth quarter of 2008. He counts AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR), the parent of American Airlines Inc., among his favorites in the new year, as well as Dallas, Texas-based Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV).

http://triangle.bizjournals.com/triangle/s....html?ana=yfcpc

 

[Bob Owens]

Lets see, all three unions on the property have amendable contracts.

Six months ago it was doom and gloom and talk of thousands of layoffs before the holiday travel season-along with a concessionary contract offer.

Instead the company cancelled all VBRs for the Line(in fact they nearly exhausted the recall list), didnt layoff any flight attendants nor any pilots.

Now their pet union, the TWU has agreed to marathon talks in December and they just submitted another secret offer to the company from M&R.

Their revenue for the year looks to be around $24 billion, I think thats their highest ever-with a lot fewer aircraft and employees.

Fuel has dropped by half of what it was.

Do you expect the company to be honest?

They're just gloomy because it doesnt look too good as far as getting another record breaking concessionary contract put in place!

Restore and more! Why not? Revenue is way, way up and costs are way, way down, its time for our shared gain.

 

[American Air Surf]

Lets see, all three unions on the property have amendable contracts.

Six months ago it was doom and gloom and talk of thousands of layoffs before the holiday travel season-along with a concessionary contract offer.

Instead the company cancelled all VBRs for the Line(in fact they nearly exhausted the recall list), didnt layoff any flight attendants nor any pilots.

Now their pet union, the TWU has agreed to marathon talks in December and they just submitted another secret offer to the company from M&R.

Their revenue for the year looks to be around $24 billion, I think thats their highest ever-with a lot fewer aircraft and employees.

Fuel has dropped by half of what it was.

Do you expect the company to be honest?

They're just gloomy because it doesnt look too good as far as getting another record breaking concessionary contract put in place!

Restore and more! Why not? Revenue is way, way up and costs are way, way down, its time for our shared gain.

I will be willing to take this bet, on wheather things will be better or worse- They will be worse, I believe- As far as revenue, revenue is revenue,- and has to be reported- The SARBANES OXLEY ACT- passed by Congress, in sures this- AND..., if AMR's numbers are not correct- Arpey & Horton who /s/ the annual reports- Go to Jail, Do not pass Go, and do not collect $200.00- This is not Monoploy- Mr. Owens, I will take your bet- and we will talk again.....

 

[Man of the People]

My manage was telling us about the Fall Leadership Conference this past week.
Nothing but gloom and doom came from Arpey and Co. Beginning 2009, AA may greatly reduce the size of American Airlines and that more layoffs of a much grander scale are imminent. They are still crying that we have among the highest labor costs in the industry.

This fits in well with current contract negotiations.

All I can say is "SHRINK, BABY, SHRINK."

And yet it's near impossible to get on a flight these days. Gimme a break.

 

[JAFA]

My manage was telling us about the Fall Leadership Conference this past week.
Nothing but gloom and doom came from Arpey and Co. Beginning 2009, AA may greatly reduce the size of American Airlines and that more layoffs of a much grander scale are imminent.

hhmmmm, Your manager must have attended a different Fall Leadership Conference than I did because that was not what I took away at all. Both Horton and Arpey pointed out the realities of where we are and where the economy is, but also a lot of positive points were made. Horton went as far as pointing out the luck we had with our timing as getting much of our aircraft financing for the 09 deliveries in place just before the economic world as we know it came to an abrupt end. The Readers Digest verios of what I took away is that times are tough and some hard choices are looming, but we have our strengths and will pull through.

 

[Hopeful]

hhmmmm, Your manager must have attended a different Fall Leadership Conference than I did because that was not what I took away at all. Both Horton and Arpey pointed out the realities of where we are and where the economy is, but also a lot of positive points were made. Horton went as far as pointing out the luck we had with our timing as getting much of our aircraft financing for the 09 deliveries in place just before the economic world as we know it came to an abrupt end. The Readers Digest verios of what I took away is that times are tough and some hard choices are looming, but we have our strengths and will pull through.

Since I don't know who you are, I'll take it that my manager is just passing along the company tactic of gloom and doom so the employees don't expect anything with respect to current contract talks. I could imagine all you managers there listening to the company brass with the ardor and dreams of riches like AMWAY conventioneers striving to get the Diamond status.

Did they boys address employee morale, or was the "lucky to have a job" tune played over the PA system in an endless loop?

If times are still tough, then SHRINK, BABY, SHRINK! The concession window is closed.

 

[Skymess]

The Readers Digest verios of what I took away is that times are tough and some hard choices are looming, but we have our strengths and will pull through.

Tough choices ARE looming for everyone, not just management.

Our whole business hangs on whether or not people have enough money to travel. That's the deciding factor.

 

[jimntx]

hhmmmm, Your manager must have attended a different Fall Leadership Conference than I did because that was not what I took away at all. Both Horton and Arpey pointed out the realities of where we are and where the economy is, but also a lot of positive points were made. Horton went as far as pointing out the luck we had with our timing as getting much of our aircraft financing for the 09 deliveries in place just before the economic world as we know it came to an abrupt end. The Readers Digest verios of what I took away is that times are tough and some hard choices are looming, but we have our strengths and will pull through.

Horton was also quoted on MarketWatch.com in connection with the announcement of a further reduction in domestic capacity of 14% in 2009.

"These reductions will help to offset weakness in the revenue environment associated with a recessionary economy and... we think it makes sense to revise our capacity downward further for next year while at the same time accelerating our fleet replacement with more fuel-efficient aircraft," said Chief Financial Officer Thomas Horton on a post-earnings call.

FA Mikey posted the link in this thread...here.

Now, maybe a 14% reduction in domestic capacity doesn't affect you, and if you are management, I'm sure it doesn't. But, for those of us whose jobs are allocated according to the number of seats available for sale...we will be affected. With so little flying as it is, I don't see how the company can continue paying guarantee to hundreds of f/as who are not covering their guarantees with flying with the current capacity.

To the person who said they can't get a non-rev seat still...you must be trying to go from DFW to TUL or TUL to DFW. Try going TUL to ORD to start your trip. Yesterday we had 43 people total on a TUL-ORD leg.

At STL, we had a flight to LAS (always full) go out with 23 people on board the other day. Loads are definitely dropping in some markets.

 

[Hopeful]

Tough choices ARE looming for everyone, not just management.

Our whole business hangs on whether or not people have enough money to travel. That's the deciding factor.

Regardless on where it hangs, there is no effect on executive PUPs.

 

[FWAAA]

More grim doom and gloom news, this time from Continental:

Shares of Continental Airlines Inc. fell Tuesday amid a broader market rally, as the carrier steered down its prediction for a key revenue figure for this month.

The airline said late Monday it now expects its mainline domestic revenue per available seat mile for November 2008 to be up 4 to 6 percent, compared with a previous expectation of growth in the "low-to-mid teens." A revenue passenger mile is an industry unit measuring one paying passenger flown one mile.

In midday trading, Continental shares declined $1.98, or 9.7 percent, to $18.47.

The carrier blamed the revised expectation on lower yields because of the weakening economy.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081104/continental...affic.html?.v=1

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

My manage was telling us about the Fall Leadership Conference this past week.
Nothing but gloom and doom came from Arpey and Co. Beginning 2009, AA may greatly reduce the size of American Airlines and that more layoffs of a much grander scale are imminent. They are still crying that we have among the highest labor costs in the industry.

This fits in well with current contract negotiations.

All I can say is "SHRINK, BABY, SHRINK."

```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````

Hopeful,

Perhaps AA(via the economy etc.) has reached "the" point that Crandall predicted Years ago, where HE would have "shrunk" the domestic side.

Contract negotiations aside, we ALL know that if "uncle" Bobby did the shrinking, that we'd be Less suspicious, as opposed to Arpey !

While I'm sure that "NYC" combined(EWR/LGA/JFK) will see a reduction in domestic, from a JFK standpoint, I'd like to know what the numbers look like(or will look like) specifically for JFK.

I haven't become a management cheerleader in my increasing ol' age,...far from it. I guess what I'm trying to say is, (again..contract negotiations aside), that AA very well could be at that juncture that the GREAT ONE..predicted 15 years ago !

Be well my FRIEND

 

[Bob Owens]

More grim doom and gloom news, this time from Continental:



http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081104/continental...affic.html?.v=1

Thats doom and gloom? Their revenue per seat mile went up more in one month, percentage wise, than my revenue has in the last 5 years!

 

[JAFA]

Did they boys address employee morale, or was the "lucky to have a job" tune played over the PA system in an endless loop?

Actually morale was discussed, as it was last year. Arpey pointed out and reminded us all that everyone wants more money, unions, each of us, that everyone when negotiating is going to want more and that his is natural and should notbe looked down upon. He reminded us all that when people make sacrifices in bad times it is only natual that they will want to get something back. Frankly I think he "get's it" a lot more than most of us (lower level managers and contract alike) like to give hi credit for. We may have problems with how this ship is steered, and of course the PUP payments make him an easy target, but I do have a lot of faith in him. Frankly more than I do in some of the layers between him and me.