Japan Flights

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

so, tell me again which US airlines are changing crews and whether there is indeed a legntimate threat of a meltdown.....

With a little depth of intelligence one could deduce that I wasn't talking about US airlines but about certain European ones.

Commenting accurately on the current level / probability of a meltdown is a little beyond my pay grade. The danger is there, ofcourse, but I don't know how much the media 😱 is sensationalizing the situation and also I don't know the degree to which TEPCO and the Japan government are lying 😱

 

[eolesen]

The Japanese don't deal with failure very well... Some of the comments coming out of the NRC, and the decision by both France and Germany to start evacuating their nationals...

Is TEPCO lying? They have a history according to http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-03-17/japan-nuclear-disaster-caps-decades-of-faked-reports-accidents.html

The Businessweek link was picked up on by Ben Sandilands, a long-time reporter I follow for airline goings on in Oz and the South Pacific, but he also seems to have a pretty good handle on what's going on with the nuclear issue for some reason...

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/

 

[WorldTraveler]

I am quite sure Tepco isn't telling the truth and it is a little frightening that it appears that a private company has such a large role - the Japanese gov't is so trusting - in the face of what could be very challenging. I am not a big gov't fan but this is one instance where the gov't should bring all the resources to bear and should control the flow of information... It is not an exaggeration to say that there are huge implications on the future of Japan if Tepco gets it wrong - and no company should be allowed to control that information. That is the role of gov't.

The sole issue in noting that US airlines are not changing crews is to note that there is no viable alternative. And I can also bet you that if there truly is a disaster that makes it unsafe for anyone to even be in the greater Tokyo area, the pilots of even Japanese airlines are not flying into Japan. So far we aren't at that point.

BTW, a whole lot of "experts" w/ all kinds of credentials have suddenly come out of the woodwork w/ proficiency in the nuclear industry... buyer, beware

 

[FWAAA]

Japan's airports have enough jetA for about 10 days, but are in danger of running low:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-18/japan-s-airports-have-sufficient-jet-fuel-for-10-days-iata-says.html?cmpid=yhoo

 

[eolesen]

Foreign Carriers Tokyo Operation Changes 18-26MAR11
2nd Update as of 0630GMT 18MAR11

As per 17MAR11 GDS timetable display as of 2030GMT, latest changes to Foreign carriers operating to/from Tokyo Narita (and Haneda) as follows. Most carriers are extending operation revision until 26MAR11, while some are operating until 22MAR11 the earliest. Also, due to situation and planned schedule remains fluid, please contact the airline directly prior to departure.

see http://airlineroute.net/2011/03/17/nrt-18mar11/

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

The Japanese don't deal with failure very well... Some of the comments coming out of the NRC, and the decision by both France and Germany to start evacuating their nationals...

Is TEPCO lying? They have a history according to http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-03-17/japan-nuclear-disaster-caps-decades-of-faked-reports-accidents.html

After Tokyo Electric Power Company Managing Director Akio Komiri cried as he left a conference to brief journalists on the situation at Fukushima, a senior Japanese minister also admitted that the country was overwhelmed by the scale of the tsunami and nuclear crisis.

Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency admitted that the disaster was a level 5, which is classified as a crisis causing 'several radiation deaths' by the UN International Atomic Energy.

And they today admitted that burying reactors under sand and concrete - the solution adopted in Chernobyl - may be the only option to stop a catastrophic radiation release.

daily mail story link

 

[Frank Szabo]

The Japanese don't deal with failure very well...... snip

Agreed - and it's a shame, in some cases.

Japanese leadership holds themselves accountable sometimes even for things they couldn't have done anything about, whatever might be or may have been. It's no wonder a nuclear weapon was all that would make them capitulate re: WWII. The little divils actually have some sense about what honor is and one MUST respect them for that.

Quite a contrast to American business in general, the POS we call a president, and 535 professional liars and thieves who have titled themselves "honorable".

 

[WorldTraveler]

Japan's airports have enough jetA for about 10 days, but are in danger of running low:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-18/japan-s-airports-have-sufficient-jet-fuel-for-10-days-iata-says.html?cmpid=yhoo

The fuel issue alone will force transpac airlines to start trimming their schedules - and stops in ANC may be necessary - but still don't solve the crew turnaround issue. It still comes down to if the nuclear situation deteriorates much further - on top of the tsunami and earthquake issues, demand will fall off very quickly.
It is also very possible that some airlines like JAL that were in the process of turning themselves around will be even further pressured financially - perhaps w/ significant negative long-term consequences.
Japan's role as a hub may also be significantly deteriorated.

 

[eolesen]

WSJ quoted Sam Mayer from APA:

"we see no reason to recommend that we layover somewhere else, at least at this point." But the APA has suggested to American that pilots who want to be removed from their assigned trips to Tokyo be able to do so without penalty.

UA has also apparently positioned a 744 at NRT for employee evacuations.

 

[boston]

WSJ quoted Sam Mayer from APA:



UA has also apparently positioned a 744 at NRT for employee evacuations.

AA has a 777, with 120,000 pounds of fuel ready for employee evac's to ANC, positioned and ready as well.

 

[eolesen]

Sitting at NRT or HND?

Without naming hotels, how far away from the airport are they keeping the crews? If the evac plane is at HND, that would make more sense if the crew hotel is in the city...

 

[nyc6035]

AA has a 777, with 120,000 pounds of fuel ready for employee evac's to ANC, positioned and ready as well.

given the lease cost of a 777 all I can say is... WOW...

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

The fuel issue alone will force transpac airlines to start trimming their schedules - and stops in ANC may be necessary - but still don't solve the crew turnaround issue. It still comes down to if the nuclear situation deteriorates much further - on top of the tsunami and earthquake issues, demand will fall off very quickly.
It is also very possible that some airlines like JAL that were in the process of turning themselves around will be even further pressured financially - perhaps w/ significant negative long-term consequences.
Japan's role as a hub may also be significantly deteriorated.

Have you completed an analysis of how this also will adversly affect the mightly DL?

 

[boston]

Sitting at NRT or HND?

Without naming hotels, how far away from the airport are they keeping the crews? If the evac plane is at HND, that would make more sense if the crew hotel is in the city...

APFA hotline stated the aircraft is at NRT, and buses are on call waiting at both hotel's to take crews to NRT.

 

[boston]

APFA hotline stated the aircraft is at NRT, and buses are on call waiting for all crews at both hotels to take them to NRT.