The interesting point to watch will be just how well the demand for oil holds up in India and China. The variance of opinion on this is rather great. On one end, there are those who foresee this insatiable maul of China drinking down the very last drop of reasonably extractable oil on the planet. On the other hand, indicies point to in some cases an actual decrease of manufacturing jobs in China and an explosive increase in service/technical fields which will require in many cases less, not more, oil.
I can see the point of the later argument. China's educational system, while not uniform in quality, is producing some very high calibre students. There are also signs of a reverse diaspora taking place with some talent actually returning to the mainland to work. Look therefore to an increase in brain over brawn industrial growth.
I would have to believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle and that even if the appetite for oil is moderately slaked, China still has 160+ cities with OVER a million inhabitants. The fastest growing middle-classes in the world are in China and India (I admit this statement is ripe for debate but I submit it anyway) and middle-class growth does carry the concomitant and healthy increase in demand. This 'demand' one would think, carry a need for petrol as well.
Whatever the path taken, Western Europe and the FCs need to make adjustments sooner as opposed to later. Shale, drilling, conservation, annexation of Canada ..... take your pick but it seems as if justing waiting for the market to straigten it all out is asking to be left at the gate.
Cheers
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