US/UA Possible Merger Discussion IV

[RowUnderDCA]

So, the reason the airlines needed to merge in the first place was because of the high cost of jet fuel. Now, we have decided against a merger because of the high cost of jet fuel. So what does this mean??? If oil is below $90 a barell, there is no need to merge. If it goes over $120 a barrell, it is too costly to merge.....So I guess when oil settles down between $90 and $120 then it's time to merge again.

I think that both UA and US see that AMR is removing capacity, they expect that DL/NW will remove some capacity, they hope that some smaller carriers will exit the market, and so, UA, in particular, thinks it can cut enough to make it. Also, I suspect that the carriers are thinking the recession won't be so much of a big deal.

UA sees discipline in the industry. We'll see if it's enough. But, I don't know what will happen, but even if the economy doesn't go too bad, fuel prices will have to come down, or significant capacity will have to come out.

 

[767jetz]

Most psychologists would agree that obsession sometimes overtakes ones thoughts. We all knew USA320Pilot wouldn't take 700UW's advise to move on, but I thought you were different. Oh wait, maybe your more alike then different??

And most psychologists also say that projection is a tool used by most abusive personalities (particularly narcissists) to redirect attention from the very same behavior they themselves are guilty off.

But this isn't a psychology thread, is it? Otherwise you would want to examine why you are so obsessed with me.

 

[767jetz]

USA320Pilot comments: Agreed. Both companies are bleeding and the future is uncertain for both companies.

USA320Pilot comments: If I were a United employee I would be concenred about Glenn Titlon's statement that "We are evaluating other options, and will do what is right for United."
He said United management "will take the additional steps to size the business appropriately, leverage our capacity discipline to pass on commodity costs to customers and accelerate development of new revenue sources." To me that sounds like a United downsizing is in the cards, which could happen at US Airways too.

Even thought the merger is off for the foreseeable future, you still seem to talk as if our fates are somehow connected when they are not. UA and US each have unique problems that require different solutions, and the results could be similar or drastically different. We may both be successful. Or one may falter while the other does not. Then the merger discussions may recommence, but as an acquisition instead.

You said if you were a United employee you would be concerned. But you are a US employee and should be even more concerned with that. You apparently missed, or chose not to post, this part of Tilton's quote:

"As we have discussed previously on this call, we stack up well competitively, we benefit from the work we have done to improve our balance sheet, and we have a solid cash position and $3 billion in unencumbered assets that give us some flexibility in an environment that will continue to be extremely challenging."

Either way, the fates of US and UA are not tied together as you keep implying. Especially since the merger is off.

IMO, as times get more difficult for the industry, and CO and UA cooperate in an alliance that brings the two closer, the door may once again open to revisit a merger of CO and UA, similar to the way DL and NW got together. Remember that CO said it would always consider strategic options as circumstances change, and the two had worked out many details including labor issues and management issues. That attempted merger was much further along than the attempt with US.

My prediction is that by year end, as airlines see the effect of this years fuel costs on the bottom line, this whole soap opera industry will start with the re-runs, with a CO/UA deal back on the table. Depending on how well US does, they may play an indirect role. If conditions at US stabilize then I predict they will remain independent and continue to code share with UA/CO. If conditions deteriorate at US, then BK 3 might be in the cards and certain parts could be absorbed into a UA/CO deal. That is MY crystal ball.

 

[giantfan]

IMO, as times get more difficult for the industry, and CO and UA cooperate in an alliance that brings the two closer, the door may once again open to revisit a merger of CO and UA, similar to the way DL and NW got together. Remember that CO said it would always consider strategic options as circumstances change, and the two had worked out many details including labor issues and management issues. That attempted merger was much further along than the attempt with US.

My prediction is that by year end, as airlines see the effect of this years fuel costs on the bottom line, this whole soap opera industry will start with the re-runs, with a CO/UA deal back on the table. Depending on how well US does, they may play an indirect role. If conditions at US stabilize then I predict they will remain independent and continue to code share with UA/CO. If conditions deteriorate at US, then BK 3 might be in the cards and certain parts could be absorbed into a UA/CO deal. That is MY crystal ball.

Do you promise that if this happens with UA & CO then you can go haunt them on their thread.....

 

[sharktooth]

I'm not sure our current board of directors will want to continue dealing with seniority issues. We basically still have two separate airlines. Like it or not, shareholders call the shots and determine the fate of our company and they are tired of internal scuabbles.

The board should not be dealing with "seniority issues". That is the president's problem.

I'd say the board has other, more important, issues right now.

 

[sharktooth]

I Agree 100%

I think an alliance with CO is best and now we can focus on running an airline. If only we could ditch Tilton and get Bethune or some other talent!

Judging from Bethune's lack of talent in the military, you are welcome to him. Just because ex-PI talked him up, the only thing I found him useful for was his door open, feet on the desk and good social skills. If one wanted a job done, go somewhere else.

and to inoculate myself from those who "know otherwise", realize that Bethune himself worked for quite excellent people at PI and inherited a compliant employee group at CO, courtesy the previous dude.

 

[sharktooth]

I guess you COULD zero in on that one word, "suspended," if you want to since it implies your opinion is still alive.

But then again you could also zero in on these words...

Permanent Hold?

 

[sharktooth]

Flint Fire Department comes to rescue of tree-climbing kitten

BURTON, Michigan — Apparently a little scaredy-cat, Ralphie, didn't know that what goes up is supposed to come down.

The 11-month-old cat climbed 50 feet into a tree Friday and refused to come down all weekend, despite the efforts of owner Melissa Robinson, 39, of Burton.

"Everyone said call the fire department, and I thought it was cliche," Robinson said Monday. "But I got desperate."

See Story

Regards,

N965VJ

What did Dame Vaako say when Lord Marshall was killed, before she realized it was Riddick that killed him?

Anyway, your post was like that. Perfection.

 

[sharktooth]

.....guilty off.

Can one do that?

 

[nycbusdriver]

You know...some on here (not many) will sing high praise about Parker but if he would have only negotiated FAIRLY with the union groups instead of low balling we'd be wrapping up contract talks. The whole pilot issue could have been resolved if he would have had negotiations pushed earlier. Same goes for the flight attendants. Overall the whole labor issue has BLOWN up in their faces and I hope it shakes this Goddamn place to it's core. I'm OVER it. Shut the F'n place down before I EVER gave another cent through BK. Who in their right mind wants to deal with this incompetent management? We have ALL been saying they are the laughing stock of the industry. DL fought us off and UA is now saying, "No thanks". Can we say, "Dead In The Water"? What now? Sell soda? Sell die cast airplanes, purses and perfume? JUNK, JUNK, JUNK! ! ! ! Thank You Mr. Parker and team for throwing two airlines together to create the worlds largest Junk airline. Wonderful. Bitter? YES! ! ! :down:

I really do think the biggest sticking point for LCC to join up with anyone else is the fact that the current US/AW merger is still ongoing with no end in sight. Judging from Doug's comments during the Delta and UAL talks, I think he realizes that he totally screwed up the labor negotiations especially with the pilots. He tried the nickel-and-dime hardball routine and that dragged out the negotiations past Nicolau's ruling and THAT guaranteed that he would not have a combined contract or labor peace here for years. Had he simply bargained in good faith from the get-go, the pilots likely would have had the combined contract in place before Nicolau issued his list and when the FAA combined the certificate, everything would have been carved in stone. (NetJets, SWA, JetBlue, Virgin America, etc. would have seen a huge pile of applications from east pilots with hire dates between 1988 and 1999 as their fate would have been sealed. Few would have hung around, IMHO. And ALPA would still be on the property.)

Woulda, shoulda, coulda, huh Doug?

 

[Bear96]

I think we are getting close to re-regulation and/or changes to anti-trust revisions pertaining to the entire industry.

Why do you think that? I have heard no such talk from politicians on Capitol Hill.

I have only heard that kind of talk from airline employees hoping for a government handout (I am not accusing you of being in that camp) but I have seen no indication the government is moving in that direction. Seriously, did I miss it? Why would it make sense to prop up unprofitable, mismanaged companies through more government regulation?

The best thing the government can do right now from a public and economic policy point of view is nothing - step aside and let more airlines shut down, and get rid of archaic anti-cabotage and foreign investment rules.

 

[gaucho99]

Cost of fuel was not the reason the merger fell through.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews...20080530?rpc=44

 

[etops1]

ok ..we now know this merger is not happening so lets move on . i think this thread is now pointless.

 

[Richard]

ok ..we now know this merger is not happening so lets move on . i think this thread is now pointless.

Etops,

I actually agree.

As there are other threads dealing with the aftermath, time to say good bye to this one.