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United, US Airways fly closer to merger
Combined carrier is expected to be based in Chicago, but top leaders would  
come from smaller airline
By Julie Johnsson 
Tribune reporter 
May 11, 2008 
United Airlines is closing in on a merger with US Airways, sources say, after 
being spurned by Continental Airlines and Delta Air Lines.
The combined  carrier would be headquartered in Chicago, United's base and 
home to its largest  airport hub, said a person familiar with the negotiations.
But United  executives aren't expected to run the carrier, which would be the 
nation's  second largest, slightly smaller than the proposed Delta-Northwest 
Airlines  tie-up announced last month. Top duties are likely to be assumed by 
US Airways  Chief Executive Doug Parker and its president, Scott Kirby, said 
people close to  the Phoenix-based carrier.
Others caution that the management team's  makeup and a host of other issues 
have yet to be sorted out and that an  announcement isn't imminent.
The carriers have been down this path  before. United and US Airways explored 
a merger in 1995 and went so far as  announcing a deal in 2000, only to 
shelve it 14 months later amid a slowing  economy and opposition from labor and 
regulatory officials.
As in 2000,  United and US Airways are expected to shed assets in the 
Washington, D.C.,  market, where overlapping operations are likeliest to raise 
antitrust concerns.  United is the dominant carrier at Washington Dulles 
International Airport; US  Airways is the largest at capacity-constrained Reagan National 
Airport.
AirTran, JetBlue and Virgin America officials all say they would  be in the 
market for landing rights and gates that the carriers would divest at  Reagan 
National and other East Coast strongholds if a merger were  consummated.
"There are some places we're keeping a very close eye on,"  said David Cush, 
president and CEO of San Francisco-based Virgin America, an  upstart airline 
aimed at business travelers that plans to rapidly expand its  cross-country 
routes. "If a deal is proposed, we'll get our wish list  together."
United and other carriers are contemplating industry-changing  consolidation 
amid a credit crisis, lower consumer spending and record-high fuel  prices. In 
addition to the Delta-Northwest merger, American Airlines is  negotiating an 
alliance with Continental that would enable the carriers to sell  tickets on 
each other's flights.
All airlines are struggling to cope with  the sharp industry downturn. But 
the pressure is especially keen for United CEO  Glenn Tilton, whose airline's 
performance badly trailed its peers during the  first quarter and who hasn't 
been able to deliver a deal to shareholders,  despite being the industry's most 
vocal proponent of  consolidation.
What's more, United is projected to suffer the deepest  2008 losses in the 
industry, an estimated $10.71 per share, at the current oil  prices, according 
to a research report published Friday by analyst Kevin Crissey  of UBS 
Investment Research.
The airline with the second-largest projected  loss? US Airways, which 
Crissey estimates will lose $10.16 per share. Parker  also has advocated 
consolidation and last year failed in an attempted hostile  buyout of Delta.
Combining with US Airways would provide United with a  $5.3 billion cash 
cushion, potential cost-saving synergies of at least $1.5  billion and the means 
for even more drastic cuts if needed, like parking the two  carriers' 111-plane 
fleet of aging Boeing 737-300 jets, sources  said.
Sources expect any merger to include capital from strategic  investors, which 
could include global alliance partners or a Middle East-based  sovereign 
fund. While United planned to borrow to fund its $12 billion buyout of  US Airways 
in 2000, this time executives want a deal that would strengthen its  balance 
sheet.
But some question whether those gains would offset a fuel  bill that would 
rise as much as $6 billion in 2008 for the combined carriers, or  demands by 
unions at United and US Airways to raise their wages, the lowest  among major 
airlines, up to the industry average.
Jake Brace, United  Airlines' executive vice president and chief financial 
officer, said mergers  will work only if they are accompanied by a major 
revamping of airline  operations.
"Consolidation by itself is not the solution. The industry  will need to do 
many things to create business plans that work in this  environment," said 
Brace, who declined to comment on any talk of a merger. US  Airways also would not 
comment.
Even so, many longtime aviation observers  are skeptical that the 
megacarriers formed by combining Delta with Northwest and  United with US Airways would 
be stronger and more efficient than the carriers  operating as stand-alone 
companies.
"There are [few] easy answers for an  airline in United's situation, but a 
merger just isn't one of them," said Hubert  Horan, a Phoenix-based aviation 
consultant.
Horan thinks that a United-US  Airways linkup may find it more difficult to 
navigate the industry's troublesome  landscape. He thinks the costs of 
combining computers, reservation systems and  fleets could wipe out much of the 
potential cost savings. There's also the  possibility of potential disruptions that 
could be triggered by trying to  integrate United's pilots with their 
balkanized counterparts at US  Airways.
"The last thing you need, especially heading into a recession  and with fuel 
volatility, is to spend $1 billion of cash reserves that are  already 
dwindling … on what would be the most hellaciously complex merger in  aviation 
history," Horan said. "It's like dropping a gasoline-soaked bomb on six  union 
groups."
_jjohnsson@tribune.com_ (mailto:jjohnsson@tribune.com)