Will SWA buy, or merge with another airline in the near future?

WNMECH

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eolesen said:
Not entirely accurate -- it lists WN as a low-cost/point-to-point carrier.The two are mutually exclusive in my opinion, but got lumped together for this stellar piece of analysis from a blogger who doesn't even have a bio listed on that particular website (MarketRealist).
Ok, you want to quibble on that chart. You don't agree with a blogger?
How about the US government or the international community?

Check the links above and answer the question I posed to you before.
( sorry, the first couple links don't go where they are supposed to now. I will fix them later)
But I can post many more that show the term low cost carrier or airline, being used to describe WN.

This is the relevant question.

"I am curious as to when you consider WN ceased to be a Low Cost Airline (year), what metrics are you using and who in the government or business community agrees with your analysis"?
 

eolesen

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I'm not quibbling -- semantics matter and so does the way you present data. This person has what I'm guessing is cursory knowledge of the industry, and is getting a lot of their information from SEC filings, not any intimate knowledge of the industry or how carriers are differentiated.

There's no official DOT descriptor of a LCC, so it's going to be based entirely on the lens that particular writer is looking thru.

To me, they stopped being the benchmark LCC about 10 years ago, and Jetblue became the bellwether for LCC's. There's still an image that WN is a LCC, and so be it. The term is now just a generalization to describe a point to point carrier with an overall approach to efficiency that you don't see with the full service/global carriers.

I tend to take a more mathematical view -- where are WN's costs compared to the true LCC's like Spirit and Allegiant?

If you go by MIT's data for 2013, the network carriers have a CASM ex-fuel of around $0.09 -- WN is at $0.083 and the rest of the LCCs average around $0.072

Depends on where you want to do the split but if you go halfway between 0.09 and 0.072, you're at 0.081 and WN's higher than that...
 
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WorldTraveler

Corn Field
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I knew there would be a moment when E and I would agree wholeheartedly!

nicely said!

it's also worth noting that the network carriers generate lower RASM than WN on a non-adjusted basis but make up for it when stage length adjustments are applied, showing that the network carriers have done a very good job of recaliabrating their networks over the past couple years to maximize revenue using long-haul routes.

http://web.mit.edu/airlinedata/www/2013%2012%20Month%20Documents/Revenue%20and%20Related/Passenger%20Revenue/System%20Passenger%20Revenue%20per%20Available%20Seat%20Mile%20(PRASM).htm

http://web.mit.edu/airlinedata/www/2013%2012%20Month%20Documents/Revenue%20and%20Related/Total%20Revenue/Total%20Revenue%20(Ex-%20Transport%20Related)%20per%20Equivalent%20Seat%20Mile%20(TRESM%20ex%20Transport%20Related).htm

it is also worth noting that as WN adds more int'l flying, the differential between WN and the rest of the industry will go down and WN will indeed look more and more like a network carrier than a low cost carrier since cost and revenue statistics WILL BOTH MOVE as WN's route system changes.
 
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swamt

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eolesen said:
Not entirely accurate -- it lists WN as a low-cost/point-to-point carrier.

The two are mutually exclusive in my opinion, but got lumped together for this stellar piece of analysis from a blogger who doesn't even have a bio listed on that particular website (MarketRealist).
Really?  Your gonna get that precise just as WT and 700?  C'mon E. Never thought I would see that in you, now I have...
 

eolesen

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What part do you have a problem with -- my opinion that WN isn't really a LCC anymore, or that we don't really know the credentials of who wrote the analysis?
 
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WNMECH

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eolesen said:
I'm not quibbling -- semantics matter and so does the way you present data. This person has what I'm guessing is cursory knowledge of the industry, and is getting a lot of their information from SEC filings, not any intimate knowledge of the industry or how carriers are differentiated.There's no official DOT descriptor of a LCC, so it's going to be based entirely on the lens that particular writer is looking thru.To me, they stopped being the benchmark LCC about 10 years ago, and Jetblue became the bellwether for LCC's. There's still an image that WN is a LCC, and so be it. The term is now just a generalization to describe a point to point carrier with an overall approach to efficiency that you don't see with the full service/global carriers.I tend to take a more mathematical view -- where are WN's costs compared to the true LCC's like Spirit and Allegiant?If you go by MIT's data for 2013, the network carriers have a CASM ex-fuel of around $0.09 -- WN is at $0.083 and the rest of the LCCs average around $0.072Depends on where you want to do the split but if you go halfway between 0.09 and 0.072, you're at 0.081 and WN's higher than that...
The six low-cost carriers - Spirit Airlines, Allegiant Airlines, Virgin America, Frontier Airlines, JetBlue Airways. and Southwest Airlines - all reported increases in FTEs from July 2013 (Table 12). Low-cost airlines operate under a low-cost business model, with infrastructure and aircraft operating costs below the overall industry average.

https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/bts43_14.pdf

This looks like a descriptor of the term.
WN is listed all over this report.
The DOT has been using the term to describe WN all the way to at least last year.

You should get in touch with the DOT and let them know how wrong they are.
 
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WNMECH

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swamt

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The media is now throwing it around as well.  Alaska would indeed be the better choice and still get us into Hawaii and Alaska as SWA wants to do badly.  Another place SWA wants to serve real bad is Canada, so I would be willing to add West Jet to the list but just not as high on the list.  Just gotta luv the rumor mills.  When we bought AT I remember hearing the rumblings of Alaska at that time too, so wondering if the whole Alaska thing is a decoy to another airline purchase?  Just thinking out loud here.
 
Is Southwest Airlines pondering a new merger?
 
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swamt

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Let's not forget about West Jet up in Canada.  I know they have several types of aircraft, but the majority is in the 737 family with a mix of 600's, 700's and 800's.  They also fly 767-300's as well as some smaller turboprops Q400.  It would jump start SWA in a big way into Canada like AirTran did for us in the international market.  You just gotta luv the rumor mills as the articles just keep flowing...
 
Southwest considering more takeovers?
 
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topDawg

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swamt said:
Let's not forget about West Jet up in Canada.  I know they have several types of aircraft, but the majority is in the 737 family with a mix of 600's, 700's and 800's.  They also fly 767-300's as well as some smaller turboprops Q400.  It would jump start SWA in a big way into Canada like AirTran did for us in the international market.  You just gotta luv the rumor mills as the articles just keep flowing...
 
Southwest considering more takeovers?
uh. Southwest can't "buy" WestJet. IIRC Canada has a 25% ownership law. 
 
Also having said that, US and Canada have an open skies, WN could start flights to Canada tomorrow.
 
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WorldTraveler

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WN could fly anywhere in the western hemisphere it wants... the only reason to buy a competitor is to eliminate it.

AS costs almost 1/3 of WN's market valuation...spending multibillion bucks to buy 737 ETOPS experience is a tad expensive.