AAL Stock

[WeAAsles]

It looks like the "shorts" may have finally left the building? AAL is still up over 50% YTD.

 

[MCI transplant]

UAL & DAL are both down 5% or so for the month as well. With a shooting war now underway in Iraq and Israel, I'm surprised they're not down even further.

Something to be aware of! http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2014/08/amramerican-airlines-bankruptcy-case-still-has-240-disputed-claims-totaling-2-7-billion.html/

 

[FWAAA]

Something to be aware of! http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2014/08/amramerican-airlines-bankruptcy-case-still-has-240-disputed-claims-totaling-2-7-billion.html/

Those claims won't affect the new AA stock, as sufficient stock was held back to pay contingent claims.   If those claims are paid, they'll simply get stock that was reserved for them.   If the claims are denied and not paid, then the holders of old AMR stock (AAMRQ) should get another distribution of even more stock.   

 

[eolesen]

It looks like the "shorts" may have finally left the building? AAL is still up over 50% YTD.

Yep, shorts might have something to do with it. And yes, up 50% Ytd:

 

[WorldTraveler]

congrats.... let's check back on progress 2, 3, 5, and 7 years after the merger and bankruptcy and see how those charts look, shall we?

 

[Mach85ER]

Thanks Nostradamus, I mean WT.

 

[AA Tulsa Mechanic]

congrats.... let's check back on progress 2, 3, 5, and 7 years after the merger and bankruptcy and see how those charts look, shall we?

What an ass, smh

 

[eolesen]

Considering how much of the stock was in the hands of unsecured non-employee creditors to settle their unsecured claims, wouldn't it be fun to see how many of those companies held the stock long enough to get paid out more than their claims' value?...

Somehow, I don't think that happened with DL's creditors, but happy to stand corrected.

 

[WorldTraveler]

I would LOVE to see evidence that creditors will hold AA stock any longer than for any other airline.

And you do realize that if DL creditors had held their stock, they would have fared far better than the market as a whole?

Given at the value AAL came out of BK at, it is highly doubtful they will see the same kind of gains.

AAL's value in the market is very closely tied to what DL accomplished.

UAL certainly hasn't set the standard for what a network airline should be worth.

 

[eolesen]

The point you seem to have missed is that AMR's creditors got shares valued equal to their claims on the day of the new issue. It's a rare thing to be made whole, but that's what they did.

How many of NW, UA or DL's unsecured creditors were paid out at 1:1 to their claims?

 

[jimntx]

Considering that on the original issue date, 09DEC13, the value of the shares I got was $22.55, if they held on to the stock for even a few weeks, they did very nicely as it ran up in value to over $40/share very quickly.
 
Let's see...if a creditor was owed $2,255, he/she received 100 shares.  Within a few weeks the shares were worth $42/share.  If sold then, they made a gross short-term capital gain of 86%.  Even if they had held on to the shares until yesterday with that disastrous plummet of $0.38/shr to $39.19, they still would have made a gain of 74% over what they were owed in bankruptcy.  E, I'd say they were made more than whole in a very short period of time.
 
But, then DL did it better. Right?

 

[WorldTraveler]

again, AA has had the benefit of emerging in a period of strong industry growth and capacity discipline and at the END of a cycle of mergers that has benefitted the entire industry, including AA.

I am not slighting AA for what they have accomplished.

But it also is far from clear what any stock including AAL will do going forward.

AA's financial performance will be weighed against the rest of the industry on a number of factors that are considered in all industries - including a comparison of earnings, balance sheet strength, and likelihood that future earnings will keep pace with what has been delivered so far.

AA might well continue to deliver very strong earnings - but it is also not a fluke that AAL's stock run up weakened about the time that UAL delivered its quarterly reports and investors realized that UAL isn't out of the game and is indeed making solid progress in addressing some of the issues that have plagued UA's performance since their merger.

As the last of the megamergers, AA still has a long ways to go before reaching a level of financial stability comparable to other airlines.

Thus, it is absolutely valid to look for even a comparison one full year out of BK and the merger and then at comparable periods post merger and BK (where applicable) compared to DL, UA, and WN.

 

[dfw gen]

I started a thread on how good I felt putting world traveler and 700 on ignore and it was taken down an hour later. still feel good though!

 

[silverbird007]

Why was it removed? That freak needs to be on ignore, they should remove his/her a** from the board ! Strange person whatever it is. Probably got an ax to grind. The ignore feature is the best way to clean out trash. If everybody would put he/she on ignore would be the best thing to get rid of the freak.

 

[WorldTraveler]

as much as you or others want to believe otherwise, posting truths that you don't want to hear is not a violation of the terms of service of this board.

If you find the truth to be trash, then I have the greatest amount of pity for you.

It appears that you, not me, has an ax to grind based on what you just wrote.