The IAM will not accept binding arbitration. I think Fleet service getting placed on the 30 day is the best scenario. A PEB has never been granted for non licensed personnel. Only 3 times for licensed, one of which was regarding USair mx. It's a big stretch to suggest that fleet service for the 5th biggest airline will shut down the industry. I think fleet service is only 6,000 workers so a PEB is not likely imo. I know some folks are saying that the NMB would never allow the world's biggest airline to go on strike, but the case before it is NOT the world's biggest airline. 3,000 mx, or 6,000 fleet service isn't going to shut down the airline industry.
Of course, part of my assumption is that Obama will lean our way.