NYer, I know you and know that you were a part of that NMB decision and were actually dealing with the NMB firsthand on the matter. No disrespect but I think the two cases are different. At the time, I didn't see no way in hell the NMB would release you guys, as strong as the TWU case was, because your airline was the #1 airline but it was circling the drain and everyone knew it was going bankrupt. Why would Obama set himself up for killing an airline? -- Same goes for the current situation. As healthy as the airline seems, it is also coming out of bankruptcy and needs to meet certain milestones in order to make the Plan of Reorganization successful in meeting the intended savings and rise in revenues. It is also the largest airline in the country and any stoppage would certainly affect the national economy and that is the main goal of the NMB to avoid. The longer into this merger we go, the more intertwined the airlines will become and the less likely to receive a release. It is quote simply NOT happening.
OTOH, the economy is much better than back then, the industry is doing back flips in profits, and the airline is blowing away all projections. --That being the case why would the NMB or the Obama Administration do anything to jeopardize any of that in a mid-term election year? The answer is...they won't.
Things have changed. Not saying he will or won't allow a strike but a release is totally separate from a strike as you know. Obama may split it in between with a PEB which delays things for 30 days but gives both parties time to get their collective #### together, including AH. Again, I don't see it but the politics are favorable actually. --If you believe the politics are favorable, then you're not really paying attention. The GOP is all about going against entitlements and unions and the Administration is not going to jeopardize the economy for the sake of giving the IAM leverage...especially where it just leads to another round of negotiations soon after. And US is not the only group in Mediation. How do you let one group go and not the others? It just doesn't make sense and they won't do it.