US has 7 weekly frequencies for CLT-GRU which are leased from UA. Their CLT frequencies are restricted. The DOT is simply ensuring that US will be able to retain the CLT service. Their request for PHL was part of the proceedings but was not awarded.
UA's 7 weekly frequencies remain unaccounted for... what they will do with them remains to be seen. Not sure if US can walk away from the lease but US' award is not effective until next October.
Also, there is nothing that improves US' slot times to/from GRU for the near future which means they will likely lose lots of money arriving at 4 a.m. and leaving by 8.30 a.m. or something similar.
Lest you get too excited about all of these new routes, the Brazilian Real has deteriorated even further compared to what I wrote even earlier today. The Real is now more than 10% weaker than it was just a few months ago and that will have a significant effect on tourism to the US from Brazil.
Add in that several other carriers are adding flights and it is not uncommon to see fares below $1000 RT between the US and Brazil... far lower than it has been before.
The economic viability of these awards is a whole lot less than it was when the proceeding started. Everyone will likely start the routes but don't be surprised if there is a desire to push them back.
And don't forget that the US and Brazil are supposed to have Open Skies in 2 years anyway based on completion of the new terminal at GRU. AA can't add that many new flights before Open Skies w/o tanking their financial performance - and they will be hard-pressed to continue w/ their Brazil expansion based on the currency changes.
Finally, the DOT already collects data on transiting int'l passengers on US airlines and AA and DL right now have very similar shares of the Japan-Brazil market. DL benefits by its presence in Japan while AA benefits based on its presence in Brazil but the new routes don't change that Brazil - Asia traffic is increasingly moving via the Gulf carriers who are adding flights to Brazil. There are no visa issues and the times aren't that much different.
Further, AA and JL cannot have a JV on Japan-Brazil traffic because Brazil doesn't have Open Skies with the US which means that there really isn't much that will change with respect to Asia-Japan traffic as a result of these awards. AA also has to compete with KE which offers the only single carrier service from Northern Asia to S. America. The majority of the Brazilian population in Japan IIRC is in Nagoya, not Tokyo, so they have to change planes and stop once no matter what route they take except for DL's NGO-DTW-GRU service.
Don't forget that Japan has devalued its currency so US carriers trying to compete in the Brazil-Japan market are going to be hit on both ends trying to sell tickets in a market that the Gulf carriers have pushed into anyway
also, we have had the discussion before but DL has an exclusive US carrier partnership with Gol which has the largest domestic Brazil presence at both GRU and throughout Brazil. DL has no shortage of feed to push passengers onto its flights and they both continue to add enhancements to their partnerships. Correct me if I am wrong, but AA and JJ are not codesharing now.
BTW, E, I see you and your little buddy Veritas still can't stand for anyone to say anything even the slightest bit negative about AA and thus use the post voting system not only as a means to beat others but also to elevate your own self-image.
http://www.airlineforums.com/user/56-veritas/
