I would just as soon leave the discussion to the topic of AA’s Brazil traffic rights but since there seems to be a continued desire to make WT the focus of the discussion, I will respond.
I appreciate the comments and will consider what has been said. A couple of key points are worth responding to.
First, the amount of posts that I make in response to subjects is a red herring since many of the people with whom I have debated here have accumulated far more posts than I have on this forum and we have all been participating for about 10 years or more.
Second, on the most controversial topics in which I have engaged, I have been one of the few people who has been willing to take the position I have taken. No one else here or on other forums has provided market-specific criticisms of AA strategies; very few other people have also spoken up with a contrasting opinion regarding the representation process at DL, particularly post elections.
You can argue about how incessant I have been in pushing my view but the simple number of posts on each of these subjects argues AGAINST one PERSPECTIVE dominating the conversation over another. I just happened to have been bold enough to take on two subjects that were dear to a lot of other people while I was one of the few proponents of the opposing view.
There are a lot of arenas in democracies where one side talks longer and louder than others in order to make their point. Unless the limits of participation by users are dramatically lowered on this board, there is no reason why one person, who may well be one of the few spokespersons for a particular POV, should be limited in their ability to respond unless others are equally restricted in their ability to continue posting the same thing.
Third, I participate in discussions that have black and white components to them – ie there is some measurability to the accuracy of the statements that are made. It is absolutely measurable to say how well AA does financially on a particular route or how successful the labor movement has been in its attempts to organize at DL. Because there is measurability to the discussion, there is the potential for one person or side’s position to be shown to be incorrect. A discussion about gay marriage or abortion is solely based on morals; profitability or the success of labor representation is not. At some point, someone has to concede that the other side was right in their argument. If AA doesn’t change their Pacific network and shows via the DOT that they are profitable in the Pacific, then I was wrong.
Fourth, use of data sources that are not generally accessible to all IS problematic because it does present an unfair advantage. The comments have been heard and I will significantly limit my use of such data in my arguments, should I make them.
Fifth, data sources or not, there is a genuine cause and effect that will become apparent, data sources or not. I still believe very strongly that AA will restructure its Pacific network and pull back a lot of its recent flying simply because the chances that it can become profitable are minimal based on genuine competitive realities. The outcomes WILL validate or disprove my theories.
Finally, character assassination and attempts at humiliating others do not and never will work to silence a POV that one may not like; if anything, I have only responded more strongly because of manipulations of the post voting system and attempts at personal assassination on this forum. Does anyone really think that publishing my name for even a few hours is going to cause me to walk away and stop saying what I intend to say?
By the same token, the conversation could have taken a very different course if some people were willing to admit that some of my points were in fact correct. We had people on here argue for years that AA’s financial problems were all labor’s fault when even in its BK filing, AA acknowledged that they had a revenue problem as well. How would the conversation have changed if some of the people who were so quick to stand up for AA mgmt had stopped to say, “I don’t know all of the details of route XYZ-ABC but AA has acknowledged they have a revenue problem and in the absence of definite proof otherwise, there is a possibility that the other POV might be accurate.”
Despite the fact that I have been one of the few people who has even discussed the Brazil route case and AA’s participation in it, I will agree with IORFA that there is a good chance that none of this new capacity will actually be wanted by the time it is introduced. Fares between at least parts of the US- esp. Florida – and Brazil are well below the levels they have been in the past. Profitability will go down unless some capacity comes out of the market even if capacity is added to other markets further from where lower fares are being added.