It seems pointless now for west and east to argue their respective positions. It is like two adolescents arguing who has the bigger penis. Size doesn’t matter in this case (sorry ladies).
Instead of the head banging routine, let’s try to find some common ground. Based on pure speculation I see the following situations unfolding:
The award will stand and both groups will continue JNC talks and continue to try and address mutual career protection through fences, etc. (this is based on what I have heard today regarding the Prater meeting).
ALPA will submit the new seniority list to the Company this month
The West will not enter section 6 negotiations – too many complications
The East will vote down any TA until age 60 changes to 65 and there is complete stagnation much like the West is now experiencing.
The East will likely try to decertify ALPA (good chance for success). Good for the Company, bad for us as we watch the little money we earn be spent on dues and assessments
The East radicals (400-500) may decide to TRY and “burn the place down†but they will quickly lose their jobs, and the Company will suffer a few bad months of operation. The Company is starting to make contingency plans to counter any type of job action like this, and you don’t need to look very hard to find evidence of this.
We will all be working under a single contract and the new seniority list in 2 years. In the meantime, the East and West operations will shrink as the Company cuts ASMs to improve yields. Although, there will likely be no more furloughs as capacity will be taken out with attrition. Case in point, the East will lose around 6-7 B757 and the West will lose 1-2 over the next year or so – no replacements. The doubters can check for yourself – ask your fleet captain.
What do you think? Close, or “get a clue?â€
A quick pre-"Day trip" reply:
I'll also guess that the award won't be shot down via Alpo. I'm thinking that they'll attempt to massage some issues into something more sale-able to the membership..if only to save their union slots. I think that fences might indeed be the most viable, and expedient solution. My best guess is that such would make things far more acceptable out east.
I'm less certain that the award will be submitted this month...the political shuffling's likely to go on for a bit longer. It's not unreasonable to assume that some preemptive "harrumphing" will be taking place about the JNC becoming totally blocked without some seeming agreement, fences/whatever, within the east/west Mecs. That may make for more of a delay forwarding the list to the company.
Agreed as per the section 6..why bother if there's any hope found for future mutual progress? If their isn't to be hope for progress, and divided employee groups are then fully dug in...then the section 6 becomes a wastefull fool's errand anyways.
I'd guess that you're fully correct regarding the TA/age 65/etc, as things currently stand at least.
There's a high flood of anti Alpo sentiment that might be somewhat abated via a great hat trick from the two Mecs,and/or Nat'l, via fences and/or whatever they can come up with. Failing something extraordinary..Alpo's very likely to become toast out east within the forseeable future.
We differ on the issue of "radicals"...but I do not immediately envision any enourmous efforts to "burn the place down"...if there's any perceivable real light at the end/etc. I'd expect an "Off with Alpo's Heads" as being a more likely first strike, if sentiments are maintained at the current levels. If Alpo plays the role of Pilate, and fails to "do SOMETHING"..they're definately toast.
I'm unable to share any optimism about having a JNC success and new contract within two years. What's the possible motivation for the company to cough up any more pennies than it must?...especially with a nearly "Perfect Storm" within the labor group? Likewise..there's no present warranty as to even having the same union "representation", much less employee accord on any such contract. Additonally; I'm of the honest opinion that the current "management" wants only to seek out another merger/sale/whatever, to further fatten their own personal pockets and then scamper off. They've little or no reason to actually negotiate anything with any intentions of good faith. The possible exception to this would purely be based upon their wanting the entity to be more "marketable" via reduced labor strife.
Sadly; I'm in full accord as to the likely stagnation and/or shrinkage. I cannot even rule out extinction due to the current trends..and I fully exclude any/all employee issues from that last observation.
The future's an unkown, as always. One thing we're in total accord with = "Instead of the head banging routine, let’s try to find some common ground."
Were you just jumping aboard the earlier idiocy about "if 51% wanted slavery" posting? 
