Huge aircraft order rumour

[MAH4546]

Reliable sources are reporting AA will place order for over 200 Boeing aircraft at the Paris show, including 737s, 787s, and 777s. In addition, rumour is that AA will get the 787 maintence contract as part of the deal. I was told a very similar rumour for a good source in January, and I'm crossing my fingers that it's true. We'll know in a few weeks:

http://flightblogger.blogspot.com/

 

[Nor'Easta]

Reliable sources are reporting AA will place order for over 200 Boeing aircraft at the Paris show, including 737s, 787s, and 777s. In addition, rumour is that AA will get the 787 maintence contract as part of the deal. I was told a very similar rumour for a good source in January, and I'm crossing my fingers that it's true. We'll know in a few weeks:

http://flightblogger.blogspot.com/

This would be SWEET, if it's true!

 

[ch53D]

This means the TWU will get what they want. Aircraft Maintenance will be spun off.

http://mroaa.com/

 

[DFWFSC]

Would AA order a new fleet type without first having a pay scale for the 787's already in place? or would they be the same as the 767 or 777.

 

[eolesen]

If they place an order, they'd probably put a contingency into the contract with Boeing. No pay scale, no obligation to take delivery.

But, I'm sceptical that AA would place orders at the Paris Air Show just for the sake of it being Paris (same goes for Farnborough or Dubai). That's not their style, and new type orders are about the only piece of leverage they have right now with the Allied Pirates Association.

 

[FWAAA]

That's not their style, and new type orders are about the only piece of leverage they have right now with the Allied Pirates Association.

You're probably correct, but since the 787 is really a 763/764 replacement, perhaps it doesn't require (nor will it command) a significant deviation from established pay rates. I don't see much fleet growth as a result, since the first two dozen would replace the 762s and the rest would replace fuel-hungry 763s.

787s won't require any recalls, let alone requre any new hires, unlike the next paragraph.

I see a 100 seater as the real hostage; AA could use about 200-300 of them, some to replace MD-80s where that airplane is just too large and the most for routes where the 50 seaters and 70 seaters just aren't enough capacity. 75 F100s and two dozen 717s were grounded during the darkest days - and now that demand and fares are back up - it's about time to order this missing link in the fleet. These airplanes would mean that the furlough list would be recalled (assuming that the APA agrees to fly them for some compromise and assuming that AA wouldn't demand they fly at Eagle) and would pave the way for new hires.

 

[lpbrian]

Given that the 787 AA would buy, the 787-9, won't be available untill 2011, there is plenty of time to use an order as a carrot.

 

[flyhigh]

FWAAA makes a good point about the 100-seater. Unfortunately, it's the missing link for a lot of airlines. CO, NW & UA are benefitting from bankruptcy and having had the opportunity to make them somewhat affordable. CO had to increase capacity on their 735's recently to make them worthwhile. The closest you'll see AA be able to get affordable is the 737-700's. It's not just a pilot cost thing. Everybody seems to think it's just pilot costs. Flight attendants, mechanics, gate agents, fuel...these are expensive things.

As for this aircraft order, I think the maintenance agreement is a big bonus. Who knows if that will cause a spin-off of maintenance. I don't see it as nobody has really done that and it's been a rumor everywhere.

 

[eolesen]

Very true on the 100 seat gap, but there's always the E190. AMR has been a very good customer to Embraer, and this little jet appears to have better short haul economics than the 737-700 does.

Guys like Bob Mann probably know better, but flying the 90 seaters at post-2003 adjusted mainline rates seems to be a much more realistic proposition than it was to fly 50 or 70 seaters at 1997 book rates.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

DEAR GOD....Spin of A/C maintainance ??

THINK about what your saying/(what that means) !!

WHY..I repeat..WHY would AA want to get rid of the MOST COOPERATIVE work force(TUL) and union(TW Useless), EVER known to Management, in the history of the commercial Airline business ????????????


On another note, ...WHAT replaces the A-300's ??....., or do they run then into the ground ??

Would AA keep a dozen and 1/2 of the newest 767-300's as niche' A/C for JFK/LAX-SFO, ...because there is NO WAY IN HEL* that the demanding NY/LA crowd would EVER put up with 737/757 transcons !!!

NH/BB's

 

[FWAAA]

On another note, ...WHAT replaces the A-300's ??....., or do they run then into the ground ??

Would AA keep a dozen and 1/2 of the newest 767-300's as niche' A/C for JFK/LAX-SFO, ...because there is NO WAY IN HEL* that the demanding NY/LA crowd would EVER put up with 737/757 transcons !!!

I know you won't want to hear it, Bears, but the obvious replacement for the Airbus are the new 777s mentioned in this rumour.

Sure, they're a little larger than the AB6s, but that would permit AA to reduce frequency slightly on SJU flights if cargo/passenger demand didn't fill them up. 777s burn about 20% more fuel than AB6s, but hold more passengers and cargo. Business markets demand high frequencies, but not SJU. And if cargo and passenger demand did fill them up, then that's even better. Reduced maintenance and training expense would help pay for the size difference over the AB6s.

Will AA keep 763s to fly the transcons? IMO, no. The first two dozen 787s will be configured with horizontal flat beds in F and better seats in J and will replace the 762s. 787-8s would be the perfect size.

With the winglet announcement earlier this year, I don't see AA buying large numbers of 787s for quite a while, but I've been wrong before. Winglets on the 763s would probably enhance their resale value to a LAN or UPS or another buyer.

 

[lpbrian]

If AA does replace A300's with 777's, I wonder if they will be configured like the other 777's or a new sub-fleet created. You could really make a 777 into a cattle car if you went 2-class, eliminated crew rest, galleys, lavs, etc.

 

[ch53D]

DEAR GOD....Spin of A/C maintainance ??

THINK about what your saying/(what that means) !!

WHY..I repeat..WHY would AA want to get rid of the MOST COOPERATIVE work force(TUL) and union(TW Useless), EVER known to Management, in the history of the commercial Airline business ????????????

This is coming from the TWU. They think we could be like Lufthansa.

Keep your eye on the ball.

http://www.lufthansa-technik.com/applicati...uestednode=home

 

[777 fixer]

If AA does replace A300's with 777's, I wonder if they will be configured like the other 777's or a new sub-fleet created. You could really make a 777 into a cattle car if you went 2-class, eliminated crew rest, galleys, lavs, etc.

With AA moving away from sub fleets I doubt we will see a two class 777. If you needed an aircraft for a far east flight but all you had avaliable is a two class 777 you would be out of luck.

 

[FWAAA]

With AA moving away from sub fleets I doubt we will see a two class 777. If you needed an aircraft for a far east flight but all you had avaliable is a two class 777 you would be out of luck.

You're probably right, but I discount the sub-fleet concerns when you're talking about three dozen airplanes, a subfleet larger than most other airlines' entire 777 fleet. Eight two-class 763s configured for Hawaii was a ridiculous sub-fleet (1999-2003) compared to, say, 36 two-class 777s for Caribbean/Latin American/NYC-MIA routes.

The real question is whether the eventual 787s will be configured as 3 class (my hope) or 2 class (ala the 763 experiment since 2003). UAL has not given up on 3 class international 767s (at least not yet). MRTC was deemed a failure. Perhaps 2 class 763s are a similar mistake?