Potential New Routes

jcw

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Aug 12, 2004
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What new routes can be added to take advantage of One World to the US side?

PHL-HKG
PHL-NRT or HND
PHX-NRT or HND
PHX-MAD
CLT-HKG
CLT-NRT or HND
PHL-DME

Others that are non-hub like(keeping in mind slot controls in LHR):
BOS-MAD
PIT-MAD (if DL can do PIT-CDG) why can't we make PIT-MAD work

Thanks
 

FWAAA

Veteran
Jan 5, 2003
10,251
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What new routes can be added to take advantage of One World to the US side?

PHL-HKG
PHL-NRT or HND
PHX-NRT or HND
PHX-MAD
CLT-HKG
CLT-NRT or HND
PHL-DME

Others that are non-hub like(keeping in mind slot controls in LHR):
BOS-MAD
PIT-MAD (if DL can do PIT-CDG) why can't we make PIT-MAD work

Here's my two cents.

PHL-HKG? Not a chance. Not enough O&D and a very long flight, so very high cost.

PHL-NRT? This one is the most likely of any on your list. Pretty good O&D from PHL and strong hub at NRT. Perfect 787 route.

PHX-NRT? Nope. Not enough O&D and for too many days a year, the temperatures at mid-day (typical departure time to Tokyo) are far too hot.

CLT-HKG? Not a chance. Almost no O&D and extremely long flight, so even more costly than PHL-HKG would be.

CLT-NRT? Nope. Lack of O&D and very long flight. Yes, CLT is a huge hub in a fairly small city. And the only cities connected to CLT that aren't already connected to ORD or DFW or PHL are very small towns with two or three daily 50-seaters (or smaller Dash8s) and those towns won't fill up a flight to HKG or NRT.

PHL-Moscow? I doubt it. If Moscow made any sense, then why isn't US already flying to Moscow?

BOS-MAD? The AA/BA/IB joint venture already flies it (with IB metal). I do see more international flights from BOS, given that new AA will be the largest legacy network airline at BOS following the merger.

PIT-MAD? Nope. The new AA needs to fill in its major hubs to MAD before it takes on former hubs to MAD. Spain's economy is in the toilet and O&D between PIT and MAD is very small. CDG works because there's an awful lot more O&D to Paris than there is to Madrid. It's possible that PIT-LHR might make sense; remember that BA obtained some LHR slots when it took over BMI. O&D to London is much higher than to MAD.

HND slots will continue to be very limited and I don't see new AA getting very many more HND slots. If it does, then they'll be flown from AA gateways with very high Tokyo O&D, not from PHX or CLT.

If CLT or PHX could support service to Tokyo, dontcha think that NW would have been flying to those cities long ago? Or that UA or NH would have begun flying CLT or PHX to NRT long ago (where UA/NH has a hub)? Or that JAL would have begun flying to PHX or CLT?
 
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jcw

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Aug 12, 2004
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I would push back on a couple thoughs. HKG is a great hub for CX and with the loss of TG, SN, OZ and with only CX and JL in Asia - we will need to give customers more options in Asia (easier connections).

In terms of DME and MAD - it's all about connecting the hubs better - in Europe you lose FRA, MUC, VIE, ZRH, CPN, LIS, ARN and BRU has connection points and you are down to basically LHR - we need more points to connect customers to other cities in Europe.

I think the reason we did not fly PHL-NRT - we did not have the aircraft - with AA 772's, etc we will now have the aircraft that can fly the route.
 

700UW

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Nov 11, 2003
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US wont fly PIT to Europe, the PIT hub is dead and gone, US wont fly from PIT because there isnt O&D to make money nor connections.

It will be PHL, JFK and CLT for the International flights.

Why do posted bring up PIT? Get over it all ready.

My son flew CLT-FCO then CDG-CLT and flights were full last month.
 
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USFlyer

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Aug 19, 2002
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US wont fly PIT to Europe, the PIT hub is dead and gone, US wont fly from PIT because there isnt O&D to make money nor connections.

It will be PHL, JFK and CLT for the International flights.

Why do posted bring up PIT? Get over it all ready.

My son flew CLT-FCO then CDG-CLT and flights were full last month.
Right, we're more likely to see flights like what AA has done with RDU-LGW/LHR, where this is decent O&D potential on the US side.
 

700UW

Corn Field
Nov 11, 2003
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I believe the RDU to LHR flight has a subsidy from the pharmaceutical companies, especially Glaxo.
 

BuffaloJoe

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Aug 17, 2005
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I know that AA/US are giving up a LHR-PHL slot, but will they increase the number of flights between PHL-LHR? Such as a AM departure EB.
 

700UW

Corn Field
Nov 11, 2003
37,637
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NC
Now look at what you wrote, how are you going to increase a flight when you are giving up the slot/s needed for those said flights?
 

WorldTraveler

Corn Field
Dec 5, 2003
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There is a lot more potential from PHL to Asia than some might want to admit. PHL is in the NE and has enough feed to make a lot of routes work beyond just the local. The best thing for new AA is that there is very little competition from PHL, exactly what new AA needs in order to build a presence to Asia.
As much as AA supporters don't want to admit it, AA's strategy of building its Pacific network directly competitive with other carriers to Asia hasn't work, as witnessed by the 25% negative profit margin for AA in the first quarter of 2013 over the Pacific. BK will not reduce costs low enough to make that kind of network viable and neither will the 787, even if losses of that magnitude only happen one quarter per year.
PHX-Asia can indeed be done from a technical standpoint; LAS can and does have high temperatures and yet there have consistently been flights from LAS to Asia. PHX is not a whole lot cooler when flights to Europe depart and the distance to Europe is not a whole lot less to than to Asia from PHX.

There simply is no room in a viable company to continue to operate the same way in a region of the world where it costs five dollars to provide service that generates four dollars.

Unlike nearly every other airline BK, including HP's and US', AA has done very little to clean up the money-losing parts of its network and every airline has them.

It is far more likely that there will be a wholesale restructuring of AA's Pacific network with very little actual new growth as existing AA routes will be "traded in" for those that can generate profits. Eventually, new AA will grow in Asia.

Beyond the list you noted, ICN and China are far greater possibilities.

HND slots will continue to be very difficult to come by.

CLT has more potential for int'l service than some might want to imagine but, beyond PHL, US' presence on the east coast is far more favorable for developing Europe and Latin America than Asia. Large parts of Europe might be in the toilet and LHR is slot constrained but US still has a stronger presence in Central Europe than AA has had and that strength COULD be used to create new strength as a combined airline.

There is considerable potential to add new routes to Latin America from CLT and perhaps even some from PHX.

When thinking about potential new service, it is also worth noting that UA has not turned the corner financially although they are making progress. New AA has a lot of potential in markets competitive with UA in Europe and Latin America; current standalone AA's CASM is better than UA's and new AA will likely have lower costs than UA but higher than DL. Thus, new AA has to be strategic about what markets they can target and win. UA is probably most vulnerable in Latin America; on UA's earnings call for the most recent quarter, they said they have considerable weakness in deep S. America, something no one else said nor does data indicate that is occurring. With the movement of TAM to oneworld, UA will be very vulnerable in S. America. It is even possible that UA's ORD-GRU route will no longer be viable without connections which could provide an opening for AA.

There is potential for new AA or the merger wouldn't be happening but there will be restructuring in some regions and growth in places beyond the traditional and expected.

PIT-CDG is no longer subsidized.
 
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WorldTraveler

Corn Field
Dec 5, 2003
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PHX is well-positioned to serve as a gateway to central America and northern S. America from the west coast.

The challenge from a network standpoint is that DFW is also a good gateway for US west to Latin America traffic but the two could coexist. DFW and MIA both work for S. America which is considerably east of DFW.
 
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jcw

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Aug 12, 2004
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Let's see Delta can make PIT CDG work but US/AA can't make PIT MAD work on a 757? It's not about the hub - it's about taking advantage of opportunities

Let's see Delta can add Carribean flights from several cities, IND, PIT, etc on Saturday's and US/AA can't - seems like a good use of aircraft on the weekends to the islands
 

BuffaloJoe

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Aug 17, 2005
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Now look at what you wrote, how are you going to increase a flight when you are giving up the slot/s needed for those said flights?
They had to let another airline compete on the PHL-LHR route thus giving up a slot. That still leaves 2 BA flights. Say BA swaps some slots for the AM flight from another route that they are sitting on. AA/BA are running hourly between JFK-LHR, but I not saying going to that extreme, just adding more for connection purposes to Europe. Losing *A leaves many gray areas in Europe. With 2 flights from PHL to LHR, the O/D fills that up leaving no connecting space.