Shrink or Grow?

Oliver Twist

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Aug 20, 2002
248
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Raleigh, NC
www.usaviation.com
I would like to begin by saying this is my opinion only AND my numbers below are a guess on my part. I think they are close, but if im not, I have no doubt I will be corrected in spades. Whats important is the point and I think it whould be easily seen. See what you think.

The idea that we can not grow with RJ''s and instead will suffer more mainline shrinkage makes no sense to me. If we take the 279 mainline aircraft that US has agreed to maintain and add the RJ''s, be they under MDA or other WO''s along with the contractual Express carriers they add up to a substantial amount of seats and routes do they not?


279 Mainline
-20 Shuttle (my guess from home)
-20 International (my guess)
-39 Misc (Spares, MTC, Carrib, etc--also my guess)
_____
200 Remain
-50 Inter Hub Flights, FLA, DCA, BOS, LGA, LAX, SEA, SFO
___
150 Remaining domestic aircraft on a daily basis

150 X 5 RT''s per day = 600 RT''s per day to regular domestic and CAD cities. Seems to me like a lot of flying takes place every day between the regular cities. The ORF''s, RIC, PVD''s of the USAIR world. RDU has 18 RT''s (mainline) per day as does similar cities. The MYR''s and ILM''s of the world have 7 or less per day. If one were to assume that the average mainline city has 10 flights per day, thats 60 mainline stations (600/10=60). I do not think we have that many mainline stations anymore, but you should be able to see my point here.

The pervasive concept that most Mainline cities will be RJ''s only in short order seems silly to me. I can''t see how that could happen given the current fleet size. Not to mention that when the near 100 seat RJ''s come online they will be mainline aircraft (replacing the 733/4''s). Our fleet will get more modern with each passing month yielding lower operating costs. Unless MGT plans to fly all these planes in a big circle surrounding the Big 6 cities, they have got to go somewhere that is mainline.

As for MDA and the others, I see a huge expansion after the props have been left behind. 300+ RJ''s seems like far more commuter (props and RJ''s combined) A/C then we have now. They must also go somewhere. I do envision a day in the not too distant future where PIT or a new hub in the midwest is tailored like DL''s CVG (75% RJ, 25% Mainline) thats profitable. Imagine a RJ hub in the MCI region with 25-30% mainline. The 170''s and 190''s can reach almost any point in North America non stop from MCI or a close cousin. I believe that we will see in the next few years, cities added that we have never flown to. Cities that an RJ can make a profit on. We have the East coast covered pretty good, its time to go West and into Canada and Mexico.

Why am I saying this? The answer is simple. We have been through the worst period in our company''s history and trust me when I say what we all know to be true. It hurts, both financially and to our ego''s. Do I trust the current managment? NO - I think they would take anything and everthing they can get their hands on from us. Do I think they know which way to go? YES. Our unions, regardless of what you or I think of them, are our only defense. AND to those of you in MGT who read this, Be advised. Labor is no longer the problem- we make less than WN now so drop it and find the real answer to our problems.

I want my company to succeed and I''m very tired of hearing the naysayers bash constantly and look for the black cloud. We as a group need to get off our collective rumps and get into it and fast or we will be nothing but Road Kill.

Thanks for your time.
 
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On 8/6/2003 10:52:17 PM Oliver Twist wrote:

Not to mention that when the near 100 seat RJ's come online they will be mainline aircraft (replacing the 733/4's).


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The near 100 seat RJ's will NOT be mainline, They will be flown under mainline 121 certificate but under express contracts for all who touch them. Pilots, gate agents etc will all be paid chicken feed. I do not know how they worked this out but that is how it is.

And that is the problem. The company will have all these routes and money coming in with growth....for their pockets. Meanwhile as those near 100 seat jets replace the 733/4's more of USAIRWAYS employees will be tossed to the street to make room for MESA and such!

There are two kinds of growth...this particular brand is not good for your job.

Do not let the company lead you to beleive these 90 seat RJ's are mainline...they are not. At best they will be MDA under a seperate Express contract for all. I spoke with MDA's Cheif Pilot and he confirmed this. I asked him how they are getting around the single contract clause of the agreement...No answer. ALPA was equally quiet. I hear CWA and IAM do not have much to say on the subject either.

Anyhow my official pay rate if I were to accept a Pilot position with MDA would be about $30,000 per year. NO THANKS... I will stay in the corporate world and make three times that amount flying a 8 seat jet. I will just view my time spent flying for UsAirways as a bad dream.

If they are paying the pilots who fly them 30k you can imagine what the ground personel would be getting. (Not a crack on any group, just an honest statement)
 

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On 8/6/2003 11:19:05 PM ONTHESTREET wrote:

you can imagine what the ground personel would be getting

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Isnt there supposed to be an MDA rate negotiated for CWA? I thought the ME rate was not going to be the rate once MDA was up and running. Any word on this or was I dreaming?
 
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On 8/6/2003 11:32:26 PM tadjr wrote:





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On 8/6/2003 11:19:05 PM ONTHESTREET wrote:

you can imagine what the ground personel would be getting

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Isnt there supposed to be an MDA rate negotiated for CWA? I thought the ME rate was not going to be the rate once MDA was up and running. Any word on this or was I dreaming?


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Don't know about CWA, just heard rumors from several agents. But to give you some perspective, the PSA (U wholly owned) pay rates for the pilots on the 50 seat RJ's will be better than the rates for MDA on the 90 seaters.(Top of scale First officers) By about 5 bucks an hour. Captains for MDA will be about the same as PSA. This does not bode well for the rest of the unions.

The pilot contract for MDA is taken directly from American Eagle payrates. So it stands to reason that the company is planning to pay everybody else on eagle rates also.
 
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On 8/6/2003 11:19:05 PM ONTHESTREET wrote:


The near 100 seat RJ's will NOT be mainline, They will be flown under mainline 121 certificate but under express contracts for all who touch them. Pilots, gate agents etc will all be paid chicken feed. I do not know how they worked this out but that is how it is.

And that is the problem. The company will have all these routes and money coming in with growth....for their pockets. Meanwhile as those near 100 seat jets replace the 733/4's more of USAIRWAYS employees will be tossed to the street to make room for MESA and such!


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If the "near 100 seat RJ" you refer to is the EMB190/195 series (the EMB170/175 is near 8 seats or so), don't worry. Those aircraft are not included in any scope clause to "be expressed" and Dave's comments about them were long term (5-10 years out), as the B737 fleet reaches the end of their useful lives. There is a whole lot of ground to cover between now and then, and it will be addressed at the appropriate time. Try to stay in the moment.
 
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On 8/6/2003 11:19:05 PM ONTHESTREET wrote:

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On 8/6/2003 10:52:17 PM Oliver Twist wrote:

Not to mention that when the near 100 seat RJ's come online they will be mainline aircraft (replacing the 733/4's).


----------------​

The near 100 seat RJ's will NOT be mainline, They will be flown under mainline 121 certificate but under express contracts for all who touch them. Pilots, gate agents etc will all be paid chicken feed. I do not know how they worked this out but that is how it is.

And that is the problem. The company will have all these routes and money coming in with growth....for their pockets. Meanwhile as those near 100 seat jets replace the 733/4's more of USAIRWAYS employees will be tossed to the street to make room for MESA and such!

There are two kinds of growth...this particular brand is not good for your job.

Do not let the company lead you to beleive these 90 seat RJ's are mainline...they are not. At best they will be MDA under a seperate Express contract for all. I spoke with MDA's Cheif Pilot and he confirmed this. I asked him how they are getting around the single contract clause of the agreement...No answer. ALPA was equally quiet. I hear CWA and IAM do not have much to say on the subject either.

Anyhow my official pay rate if I were to accept a Pilot position with MDA would be about $30,000 per year. NO THANKS... I will stay in the corporate world and make three times that amount flying a 8 seat jet. I will just view my time spent flying for UsAirways as a bad dream.

If they are paying the pilots who fly them 30k you can imagine what the ground personel would be getting. (Not a crack on any group, just an honest statement)





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ONTHESTREET,

Your reality above IS THE REALITY.

When we were in negotiations, specifically the summer, management stated repeatedly that the 90 seat RJs would definitely come to mainline, but hey could not substantiate or validate when and how many.

Looking at all our agreements where we sit today, and the constant violations in the language that THEY proposed back then, tells me, this management will figure ways around NOT bringing those 90 seaters to mainline, when they can have them flown for cheaper through another wholly owned. That's fine, but don't ask Pennsylvania and the tax payers (MY tax dollar) to help you do this. Do it soley on your own.

From what I have seen and what has been shown by this management, "mainline" flying will stagnate at best, or decrease. The "business plan", does not speak to mainline growth at all, at least, not for the next 5 years.

I hope, Oliver Twist, that there will be a happy outcome to all of this for all, but my heart of hearts and mind say different. If you notice, management is still in "furlough mode". Ask yourself why? My take...they want to reduce costs whereever possible, in order to bring on more RJs and then UNfurlough those folks and place them at MDA. Make sense or not? Perhaps to some not probable, but none the less possible.

Keep in mind, in labor's perspective, we SAVED an airline to save and preserve "livable wage" jobs. Not to save an airline to be converted soley to LCC with UNLIVABLE wages. That maybe good for the stake holder and stock holder, but it is downright devasting for Labor...AND ITS ALL ABOUT AMERICAN JOBS, AT AMERICAN STANDARD OF LIVING! Livable wage jobs puts MONEY BACK into the Koffers of Pennslvania, who is running with a MAJOR deficit presently.

Rep. Santorum is coming to PIT next Wed. He will get an ear full, rest assured by the AFA PIT President whose ONLY, number #1 concern for her TAX DOLLAR IN PA, when asked to foot a bill for the airport to keep an airline here, IS TO PRESERVE, MAINTAIN, AND SAVE "LIVABLE WAGE JOBS" ON Mainline. Otherwise, they can take the airline and all go straight to HELL.

He will meet with the Labor leaders of PIT.