I would like to begin by saying this is my opinion only AND my numbers below are a guess on my part. I think they are close, but if im not, I have no doubt I will be corrected in spades. Whats important is the point and I think it whould be easily seen. See what you think.
The idea that we can not grow with RJ''s and instead will suffer more mainline shrinkage makes no sense to me. If we take the 279 mainline aircraft that US has agreed to maintain and add the RJ''s, be they under MDA or other WO''s along with the contractual Express carriers they add up to a substantial amount of seats and routes do they not?
279 Mainline
-20 Shuttle (my guess from home)
-20 International (my guess)
-39 Misc (Spares, MTC, Carrib, etc--also my guess)
_____
200 Remain
-50 Inter Hub Flights, FLA, DCA, BOS, LGA, LAX, SEA, SFO
___
150 Remaining domestic aircraft on a daily basis
150 X 5 RT''s per day = 600 RT''s per day to regular domestic and CAD cities. Seems to me like a lot of flying takes place every day between the regular cities. The ORF''s, RIC, PVD''s of the USAIR world. RDU has 18 RT''s (mainline) per day as does similar cities. The MYR''s and ILM''s of the world have 7 or less per day. If one were to assume that the average mainline city has 10 flights per day, thats 60 mainline stations (600/10=60). I do not think we have that many mainline stations anymore, but you should be able to see my point here.
The pervasive concept that most Mainline cities will be RJ''s only in short order seems silly to me. I can''t see how that could happen given the current fleet size. Not to mention that when the near 100 seat RJ''s come online they will be mainline aircraft (replacing the 733/4''s). Our fleet will get more modern with each passing month yielding lower operating costs. Unless MGT plans to fly all these planes in a big circle surrounding the Big 6 cities, they have got to go somewhere that is mainline.
As for MDA and the others, I see a huge expansion after the props have been left behind. 300+ RJ''s seems like far more commuter (props and RJ''s combined) A/C then we have now. They must also go somewhere. I do envision a day in the not too distant future where PIT or a new hub in the midwest is tailored like DL''s CVG (75% RJ, 25% Mainline) thats profitable. Imagine a RJ hub in the MCI region with 25-30% mainline. The 170''s and 190''s can reach almost any point in North America non stop from MCI or a close cousin. I believe that we will see in the next few years, cities added that we have never flown to. Cities that an RJ can make a profit on. We have the East coast covered pretty good, its time to go West and into Canada and Mexico.
Why am I saying this? The answer is simple. We have been through the worst period in our company''s history and trust me when I say what we all know to be true. It hurts, both financially and to our ego''s. Do I trust the current managment? NO - I think they would take anything and everthing they can get their hands on from us. Do I think they know which way to go? YES. Our unions, regardless of what you or I think of them, are our only defense. AND to those of you in MGT who read this, Be advised. Labor is no longer the problem- we make less than WN now so drop it and find the real answer to our problems.
I want my company to succeed and I''m very tired of hearing the naysayers bash constantly and look for the black cloud. We as a group need to get off our collective rumps and get into it and fast or we will be nothing but Road Kill.
Thanks for your time.
The idea that we can not grow with RJ''s and instead will suffer more mainline shrinkage makes no sense to me. If we take the 279 mainline aircraft that US has agreed to maintain and add the RJ''s, be they under MDA or other WO''s along with the contractual Express carriers they add up to a substantial amount of seats and routes do they not?
279 Mainline
-20 Shuttle (my guess from home)
-20 International (my guess)
-39 Misc (Spares, MTC, Carrib, etc--also my guess)
_____
200 Remain
-50 Inter Hub Flights, FLA, DCA, BOS, LGA, LAX, SEA, SFO
___
150 Remaining domestic aircraft on a daily basis
150 X 5 RT''s per day = 600 RT''s per day to regular domestic and CAD cities. Seems to me like a lot of flying takes place every day between the regular cities. The ORF''s, RIC, PVD''s of the USAIR world. RDU has 18 RT''s (mainline) per day as does similar cities. The MYR''s and ILM''s of the world have 7 or less per day. If one were to assume that the average mainline city has 10 flights per day, thats 60 mainline stations (600/10=60). I do not think we have that many mainline stations anymore, but you should be able to see my point here.
The pervasive concept that most Mainline cities will be RJ''s only in short order seems silly to me. I can''t see how that could happen given the current fleet size. Not to mention that when the near 100 seat RJ''s come online they will be mainline aircraft (replacing the 733/4''s). Our fleet will get more modern with each passing month yielding lower operating costs. Unless MGT plans to fly all these planes in a big circle surrounding the Big 6 cities, they have got to go somewhere that is mainline.
As for MDA and the others, I see a huge expansion after the props have been left behind. 300+ RJ''s seems like far more commuter (props and RJ''s combined) A/C then we have now. They must also go somewhere. I do envision a day in the not too distant future where PIT or a new hub in the midwest is tailored like DL''s CVG (75% RJ, 25% Mainline) thats profitable. Imagine a RJ hub in the MCI region with 25-30% mainline. The 170''s and 190''s can reach almost any point in North America non stop from MCI or a close cousin. I believe that we will see in the next few years, cities added that we have never flown to. Cities that an RJ can make a profit on. We have the East coast covered pretty good, its time to go West and into Canada and Mexico.
Why am I saying this? The answer is simple. We have been through the worst period in our company''s history and trust me when I say what we all know to be true. It hurts, both financially and to our ego''s. Do I trust the current managment? NO - I think they would take anything and everthing they can get their hands on from us. Do I think they know which way to go? YES. Our unions, regardless of what you or I think of them, are our only defense. AND to those of you in MGT who read this, Be advised. Labor is no longer the problem- we make less than WN now so drop it and find the real answer to our problems.
I want my company to succeed and I''m very tired of hearing the naysayers bash constantly and look for the black cloud. We as a group need to get off our collective rumps and get into it and fast or we will be nothing but Road Kill.
Thanks for your time.