TWU negotiations.........what?

[TWU informer]

I am curious to know what is the plan for our future negotiations for title 1 now that title 3 and 5 will be in super negotuations in December? What will the flow through items be? any me too clauses?

Good Questions!

With the current TWU/Burchette structure, where do we go to find answers?

 

[MCI transplant]

I don't mean to say they will close mci and afw. only if they close them then the BK plan is complete. I am referring to going forward with the respect to a flawed process. The TWU hides behind the negotiating committee to get their work done.

<_< ------- Chuck, after Jan.1st., MCI will be down to as little as 205 total people here at MCI. Two lines of work until June, 2009, than? We've been told no more silver tails after that date. So, realistically, I'de say MCI is history! AFW, who knows?

 

[Chuck Schalk]

I am not an economist but with oil at 61 dollars this morning and OPEC claiming they will cut production to keep oil between 70 and 90 dollars a barrel, Maybe it would be wise to maximize AA fuel hedge at 61 dollars a barrel. This way AA can have a workable fixed cost on fuel and can now budget accordingly. It is foolish to pay for fuel on the volatile open market as we have witnessed. AA boasts about their billions in cash reserve. Use it towards our biggest expense that has choked the airline and have negatively affected the employees. I can't think of anything else that would have precedence over this issue that has been put in our faces over and over again. Just my opinion as a low level employee.

 

[The Dissident]

Oil may go to the 40's pretty soon!!!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=905904600&play=1

 

[FWAAA]

I am not an economist but with oil at 61 dollars this morning and OPEC claiming they will cut production to keep oil between 70 and 90 dollars a barrel, Maybe it would be wise to maximize AA fuel hedge at 61 dollars a barrel. This way AA can have a workable fixed cost on fuel and can now budget accordingly. It is foolish to pay for fuel on the volatile open market as we have witnessed. AA boasts about their billions in cash reserve. Use it towards our biggest expense that has choked the airline and have negatively affected the employees. I can't think of anything else that would have precedence over this issue that has been put in our faces over and over again. Just my opinion as a low level employee.

That would be a brilliant move as long as oil stays at $61/bbl or higher.

What if oil falls to $40/bbl or $30/bbl? Or even $20/bbl? And stays there a while.

How much of your money have you gambled on oil futures now that oil is "only" $61/bbl?

 

[Chuck Schalk]

That would be a brilliant move as long as oil stays at $61/bbl or higher.

What if oil falls to $40/bbl or $30/bbl? Or even $20/bbl? And stays there a while.

How much of your money have you gambled on oil futures now that oil is "only" $61/bbl?

I am basing this on OPEC who controls the price by controlling supply and demand by increasing or decreasing output. OPEC has publicly stated that they would like to keep the price of oil between 70 and 90 dollars a barrel. Hedging is the CFO responsibility and thats what he gets his bonuses for! So far, they have failed in playing the oil card and it has effected the whole company and its employees!

 

[Bob Owens]

That would be a brilliant move as long as oil stays at $61/bbl or higher.

What if oil falls to $40/bbl or $30/bbl? Or even $20/bbl? And stays there a while.

How much of your money have you gambled on oil futures now that oil is "only" $61/bbl?

How likely is that? Besides at $60/barrel AA would make about $1 billion a year in profits.

 

[The Goose]

How likely is that? Besides at $60/barrel AA would make about $1 billion a year in profits.

You're dreaming, Bob - even if that magical billion was reached, I guarantee a way would be found to mask it from our view.

It would be comical to watch Horton scramble, though. They'll be trying to do that from now on anyway.

 

[The Goose]

I am basing this on OPEC who controls the price by controlling supply and demand by increasing or decreasing output. OPEC has publicly stated that they would like to keep the price of oil between 70 and 90 dollars a barrel. Hedging is the CFO responsibility and thats what he gets his bonuses for! So far, they have failed in playing the oil card and it has effected the whole company and its employees!

Re: OPEC - never have all member nations stayed within their production quota. If they do this time, it will be a first.

Regardless of what oil prices do, the company will continue to prance around as though they're still cutting the fat hog in the posterior. Granted, it will be more for show than anything; kinda like whistling while walking past the graveyard.

 

[FWAAA]

I am basing this on OPEC who controls the price by controlling supply and demand by increasing or decreasing output. OPEC has publicly stated that they would like to keep the price of oil between 70 and 90 dollars a barrel. Hedging is the CFO responsibility and thats what he gets his bonuses for! So far, they have failed in playing the oil card and it has effected the whole company and its employees!

OPEC; the TWU of international cartels. 😀

Sure, OPEC would LIKE to see oil stay in the $70-$90 range forever. Anybody here really naive enough to think they can make it happen? If so, why did oil bounce around between the low teens and the mid-twenties from 1986 until 2003?

OPEC has succeeded in raising prices by controlling output exactly twice in its history. In 1973, OPEC was able to more than double the old imperialistic prices. In 1979-1985, OPEC was able to dramatically raise prices and keep them there for a few years. Oil spiked again when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, but OPEC claimed no public credit for that temporary price rise.

Even if you believe that OPEC "caused" the 2005-2008 price hikes (unlikely, since production has been full-tilt throughout), then why did OPEC allow prices to fall more than 57% since July of this year: from over $147/bbl to less than $62/bbl? And given their failure to keep prices from collapsing, on what basis does anyone think OPEC is calling the shots now?

"The mood is fairly negative reflecting worry about the international economic outlook," said David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. "If there is further weak economic data in the U.S. or Europe, prices could come under more downward pressure."

Iran's OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi said Sunday a reduction in production "will be considered" at the group's next meeting in Algiers in December -- a meeting that might even be held early if necessary.

"I thought the OPEC cut was a fairly decisive act, but concerns of recession in the major economies remain dominant," Moore said. "OPEC's cut does take a step toward tightening the market."

Vienna's JBC Energy said prices were out of OPEC's control -- for now.

"Oil is currently being driven by the present financial crisis and not by OPEC cuts," said its research report. "As oil prices are being pressured by the credit squeeze and a lack of liquidity, they may stay largely detached from supply factors for several weeks to come. As a result, OPEC is currently struggling with factors beyond its control."

Investors have been paying close attention to signs that a slowing economy and higher gasoline prices earlier this year have hurt crude demand in the U.S., the world's largest oil consumer.

The Department of Transportation said Friday that Americans drove 5.6 percent less, or 15 billion fewer miles, in August compared with same month a year ago -- the biggest single monthly decline since the data was first collected regularly in 1942.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081027/oil_prices.html

I'm certain there are learned experts saying the opposite and that OPEC will be successful. OPEC would like to keep prices up. History has shown their impotence except in relatively short-term bursts.

So buy all the $61/bbl oil you want. Like I said before, brilliant if it goes higher. Pretty stupid if it falls another $10-$40/bbl and stays there a while. Like it did for 17 years from 1986-2003.

Here's some historical oil prices:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rwtcd.htm

How likely is that? Besides at $60/barrel AA would make about $1 billion a year in profits.

Dunno. How likely was it that it would quickly fall from $147/bbl to $61/bbl? If the last 24+ years are any guide, it's more likely to be $25/bbl than $61/bbl, epecially during what's looking like a world-wide recession.

At $60/bbl, AA might even make more than a billion if everything else stays the same (like revenue). That's the big unknown right now - revenue.

 

[Chuck Schalk]

Someone has to make that decision right? who will it be and and at what price? I am not paid to make that decision but history has shown us that they have been wrong and cost us dearly!

 

[Chuck Schalk]

I can't figure out why we are negotiating consessions that were taken from us? If the company and the TWU International had any sense they would give back concessions in good faith now!

All but not limited to:

Like the 1/2 pay sick time......... It is costing the company more anyway
Double time for holidays........ high sick calls anyway (see item above)
all paid holidays.......... (see items above)
Vacation days

This would show a sign of good faith and show the employees that all parties are serious going forward
It is pathetic to say we are negotiating something that was taken.

 

[FWAAA]

I can't figure out why we are negotiating consessions that were taken from us? If the company and the TWU International had any sense they would give back concessions in good faith now!

I'm dumbfounded that five and a half years after the huge concessions were forced on you, you allow the worthless union to negotiate yet again on your behalf. In five and a half years, all that's been done is one failed card drive for AMFA. That makes me angry and I'm not even employed by AMR or any of its subs. You guys must be livid.

All but not limited to:

Like the 1/2 pay sick time......... It is costing the company more anyway
Double time for holidays........ high sick calls anyway (see item above)
all paid holidays.......... (see items above)
Vacation days

This would show a sign of good faith and show the employees that all parties are serious going forward
It is pathetic to say we are negotiating something that was taken.

You may already realize this - but the best ammo here would be real-life numbers. Stats that prove that these concessions actually cost AA more money. Given the worthless union's record, I have a hard time believing that any of those bubbas posses those stats. And without some evidence, all AA's gonna do is laugh.

 

[The Goose]

You may already realize this - but the best ammo here would be real-life numbers. Stats that prove that these concessions actually cost AA more money. Given the worthless union's record, I have a hard time believing that any of those bubbas posses those stats. And without some evidence, all AA's gonna do is laugh.

Whether or not the union has any of those stats is immaterial - the company will create them to their specs (with plenty of reasons for not returning concessions) and deliver if the TWU requests them. Notice I didn't mention accuracy, reality, or honesty but simply "create to order".

Besides - the TWU would much prefer higher employment (more dues collections) in lieu of higher wages.

 

[Chuck Schalk]

Can anyone tell me what the TWU plan is? We have been in negotiations for over a year now and we see nothing and hear of no direction or how they plan to make us whole again. The worst part of it all is that the TWU negotiating committee will share proposals with the company but not their own members! Is it just me or does this whole process seem flawed?