The IBT drive could have a lot to do with the possible merger with US and the fact it could spark an election between the TWU and IAM.
In a merger there is no automatic winner when there are two unions on the property. No 50%+1 showing of interest needed.
So if the merger does take place there will likely be an election between TWU and the IAM. There is bad blood between the two stemming from the US/America West merger and the brawl that broke out in PHL which resulted in injuries and lawsuits. There is also bad blood between the IBT and IAM stemming from IBT raids on the IAM. The IBT maintained that the IAM was lowering industry standards and putting their members at risk as justification for conducting a Raid within the AFL-CIO.
The deal mechanics have in place passed by one quarter of one percent, and with the early out odds are that the majority of workers who remain voted against the deal. So there is undoubtably a lot of dissatisfaction at AA with the TWU at this time.
AA has a sizable number of Ex IAM guys from EAL and TWA, most of whom speak favorably about the IAM compared to the TWU.
I doubt the TWU has any support amongst the mechanics at USAIR. Falling under the TWU contract would mean the loss of Vacation, Holidays and sick time, three important issues for the average 55 year old mechanic. The IAM will undoubtably educate them as to the Kasher Award and likely claim thats what the TWU would do to them. (And the TWU would claim that if the IAM got in all the TWA guys would get all their seniority back) Not saying that USAIR mechanics are happy with the IAM either, I'm sure there is a lot of dissatisfaction there as well but I do not believe that the TWU would be able to reap any benefit from their dissatisfaction, after all their currently amendable deal is better than the deal we are locked into for the next six years.
So if there were a vote between the two IMO the odds favor the IAM, despite the fact they are the smaller unit, this is where the IBT comes in. Whats the best way for an incumbant to stay in power? Multiple opponents who split the vote of dissatisfaction.
If rumors of an IBT -TWU merger are true then this strategy makes even more sense, as a vote for the IBT, which is a vote against the incumbant would, unknown to the voter in effect be a vote in favor of the incumbant for those at AA and against the incumbant at USAIR.What is really a two way race would appear to be a three way race. The IBT would pick up most of the dissatisfied mechanics from both USAIR, and AA, and if they are merging anyway then its a win for the TWU.
In the past the IBT clearly stated that they were not interested in organizing AA mechanics, even stating so in writing, and have not expressed any interest in any other group. Its odd that an industrial Union would raid another industrial union but on a craft basis. Given that the IBT and TWU have collaborated on trying to organize MROs, and I havent heard that those who were assigned to that project have returned to the floor, so the program appears to still be in place, it seems odd that despite the raid there are no hard feeling like we normally see in a raid. The IBT changed from not wanting the AA mechanics to wanting the AA mechanics after it came out about a possible merger with USAIR. A merger which could spark an election between the TWU and IAM.
One need not look too hard to realize that all is not as it seems.
Of course if AMFA gets on the same ballott then the whole thing is up for grabs. AA and US mechanics occupy the bottom of the industry, and not by just a little, the gap is HUGE. Larger than any gap that has ever existed between the legacies. That may explain why a raiding IBT does not criticize the union they are "raiding" and instead goes after a Union thats not on the property and why the Union thats being raided by two organizations only goes after one.