If a merger were to happen and the NMB rules are still the same as it was back with the TWA/AA acquisition then there will be no run off election. The IAM conceded to the TWU because the TWU and IAM knew that AMFA would have won the runoff with a fill in choice. The word probably came down from the AFL-CIO for the IAM to concede. The AFL-CIO had more to lose if both IAM and TWU were voted out. So if the rules are the same then there will be no run off. AMFA would win again. My Guess? Not really if you follow all the issues with AA and USAir. Both sides are ready for change. Teamsters? Not. They are only here at AA for a diversionary drive to distract the AMFA drive. So if the merger should happen we will have to see who concedes.
The IAM "conceded", in other words they didnt challenge it. I think they would this time. There is bad blood between the two because the TWU would not concede with America West in the other USAIR Merger, in fact a brawl broke out in PHL and a couple of TWU organizers were hospitalized. No doubt the IAM felt betrayed since they didnt mount a challenge at AA.
The IAM really didnt have much choice at AA though. The IAM walked away from TWA as part of a deal they made to not get screwed on debts that TWA owed to the IAM. If they had challenged the whole thing, including Seniority they were told to be prepared to at best get pennies on the dollar for what TWA owed the IAM for the pension and equipment the IAM owned and leased to TWA.
You have to remember that the AFL-CIO is not to member unions what the International is to the Locals. The AFL-CIO stood by when the IBT raided the IAM, and both were AFL-CIO affilated at the time.
For the TWU the mechanic group is the group thats most at risk in a merger, I believe our Fleet, Stores, Dispatchers etc are all better paid than their IAM counterparts at USAIR, not sure about other places such as UAL, etc.
So yea they may be concerned about AMFA, but thats a big maybe, as a group Title II and OH apparently have not changed, they got what they wanted and even if they did start moving for a new union it could be years off by the time all the challenges are exhausted, but if the USAIR deal goes through there more than likely will be an election, unless the TWU and IAM sit down and decide to just hand us over in return for the IAM conceding the other groups. While I said that the mechanics are the most at risk the IAM represents Fleet at UAL and could cause the TWU to spend a lot of money fighting off the IAM. Moneywise that would make sense, the TWU would get Fleet while the IAM would get Maint. We shall see.