Us Airways Still Bleeding

[markkus757]

PHXLost - their evolution will continue in many ways, don't you worry. Why do you think they are trying to get the Wright amendment repealed? If that happens, that is easily 5+ years of growth itno many markets that the others do not want them to penetrate. I also think a major component for the long term is the ATA investment. They are now penetrating more markets that are prohibitively expensive for them to put ops into without hiring one person on the ground. If you would like more reasons, then go ahead and ask.

 

[nycbusdriver]

The window of opportunity is open right now, but time is short.

Doug Parker has proven that he is great at what he does, and that's operate a successful, well-respected, mostly-regional carrier. Ed Colodny was in the exact same position in 1986 and 1987 when he jumped out of the "large regional" status to real-life national carrier (with one transatlantic route, i.e. Piedmont's LGW authority.)

We all learned that Ed was incapable of making the jump to "national" status, and he often said (before the Piedmont purchase) that USAir was NOT interested in flying internationally. That was Ed's mindset, and it didn't change one iota when he took on PSA and Piedmont. Seth "Deer-in-the-headlights" Schofield, Ed's immediate successor, was molded in this same tradition. The rest is history. Sad, sad history.

The window of opportunity is open right now, but time is short.

It makes me really nervous to hear of Doug Parker addressing the "Wings Club" in NYC and saying that there will be no growth at USAirways for 2 years. In fact, US/East is still shrinking, and the rumor mill has it that US/West will now shrink a bit more than originally planned. I fear Doug Parker is reading Ed Colodny's playbook.

USAirways hauls massive amounts of customers to Europe, the Caribbean and Central America. The markets are ripe, but the recently-departed US/East management would never agressively address these opportunities, especially to Europe. This carrier has historically been shy of buying BIG airplanes. I mean the kind that fly to foreign cities with lots of revenue on board, both in the cabin and in the hold. It took Wolf and Gangwal to wrench the company beyond the "little" big 767's, and the A330's have been a huge success.

So? What next?

Go ahead and make arrangements to postpone for two years the delivery of those aircraft which are profitable.

Yeah. That's the ticket!

Keep the high-yield markets stagnant. Give JetBlue and AirTran and maybe some other start-ups that we haven't even heard of yet a few years to catch on to these markets, so that in 2009 when the next A330 is now going to arrive, we will see transatlantic saturated with new entrants who grabbed market share from Delta, NWA and maybe Contninental while they right-sized in BK.

Yeah. Let's not grow at all for two years. Let's shrink a bit more while the REAL low cost carriers continue to grow into our markets.

The window of opportunity is open right now, but time is short.

Doug? Are you really ready to play in the big leagues?

 

[deelmakur]

My guess is they are only just beginning to figure out that it is going to take millions to revive the product. Those Arizona guys might be very nice, and they may have stolen the place by paying nothing, but not unlike Bre'r Rabbit in the briar patch, they are about to wake up with Excedrin Headache Number 500. The cash burn, deferred non essential maintenance, loss of many business pax, and fuel prices, any one of which would be a nightmare by itself, are going to come together with a bang. Meanwhile, this schmuck in Tempe is busy doing a Baldanza imitation, cutting FF bennies, and the like. Now there's a priority. The very fine employees of USAirways, who are among the best in the industry, deserve better. They have given up everything, to enable these characters to go right out and do the same dumb things all over. Anybody for a brain transplant?

 

[PHXLOST]

PHXLost - their evolution will continue in many ways, don't you worry. Why do you think they are trying to get the Wright amendment repealed? If that happens, that is easily 5+ years of growth itno many markets that the others do not want them to penetrate. I also think a major component for the long term is the ATA investment. They are now penetrating more markets that are prohibitively expensive for them to put ops into without hiring one person on the ground. If you would like more reasons, then go ahead and ask.

[post="310773"][/post]​

I think you're underestimating the clout AA has in Texas...and overestimating A BK airline who has given more planes back than is still in their fleet.
Why do you think we are rushing into Hawaii?...I think we smell blood in the water, and if it comes to WN buying ATA...I would place a big bet on the 757's hitting the junk pile...
WN= Wal-Mart...growth with no innovation...And today Wal-Mart urns for the Target crowd.

 

[gso-crew]

Yep there's no way this company will make it ......

Merrill resumes US Airways with "buy"
Mon Oct 10, 2005 12:00 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch & Co. has resumed coverage of US Airways Group Inc. with a "buy" recommendation, analyst Michael Linenberg said in a taped phone message.

Linenberg set a 12-month price target of $28, up from a Friday close of $22.15, citing the airline's $1.7 billion in unrestricted cash and the likelihood that it will benefit from industry rationalization.

 

[BoeingBoy]

When the analyst's recommendations started rolling in, I posted a list in another thread. Here's the updated list:

Bear Stearns - outperform (on 9/30/05 - price target $25)
Calyon Securities - neutral
Prudential - neutral (on 9/30/05 - price target $15)
Reuters - neutral (on 9/28/05 - downgrade from 'outperform')
Reuters - outperform (on 9/30/05 - upgrade from 'neutral')
JP Morgan - neutral (9/27/05)
JP Morgan - overweight (on 10/6/05 - upgrade from 'neutral')
Ford Equity Research - most unfavorable (9/30/05)
Merrill Lynch - buy (on 10/10/05 - price target $28)
Bear Stearns - neutral

Jim

 

[delldude]

The window of opportunity is open right now, but time is short.

Doug Parker has proven that he is great at what he does, and that's operate a successful, well-respected, mostly-regional carrier. Ed Colodny was in the exact same position in 1986 and 1987 when he jumped out of the "large regional" status to real-life national carrier (with one transatlantic route, i.e. Piedmont's LGW authority.)

We all learned that Ed was incapable of making the jump to "national" status, and he often said (before the Piedmont purchase) that USAir was NOT interested in flying internationally.

The window of opportunity is open right now, but time is short.

It makes me really nervous to hear of Doug Parker addressing the "Wings Club" in NYC and saying that there will be no growth at USAirways for 2 years. In fact, US/East is still shrinking, and the rumor mill has it that US/West will now shrink a bit more than originally planned. I fear Doug Parker is reading Ed Colodny's playbook.

So? What next?

Go ahead and make arrangements to postpone for two years the delivery of those aircraft which are profitable.

Yeah. That's the ticket!

Keep the high-yield markets stagnant. Give JetBlue and AirTran and maybe some other start-ups that we haven't even heard of yet a few years to catch on to these markets, so that in 2009 when the next A330 is now going to arrive, we will see transatlantic saturated with new entrants who grabbed market share from Delta, NWA and maybe Contninental while they right-sized in BK.

Yeah. Let's not grow at all for two years. Let's shrink a bit more while the REAL low cost carriers continue to grow into our markets.

The window of opportunity is open right now, but time is short.

Doug? Are you really ready to play in the big leagues?

[post="310787"][/post]​

good point.....thats been U's strategy of catch up...or change tires while taxiing..
we got RJ's years after everyone else had them.....
sink or swim market reality and they'll 'cede for a couple years while everybody else passes them by...
if you're a westie,i'd suggest you look into U's past strategy in markets where they ran and let the likes of WN or others gain a foothold and make money.
sad but true....doug may be precast mentally.

 

[MCI transplant]

<_< Damn Delldude!!! On looks alone you qualify to be a lead AA mechanic at TUL!!!! Ever thunk about a move??????

 

[NeedForSpeed]

<_< Damn Delldude!!! On looks alone you qualify to be a lead AA mechanic at TUL!!!! Ever thunk about a move??????

[post="310884"][/post]​

Hey!!!! Hey!!!!!....Be nice....Delldude is much uglier than that guy... got ya, dude....

 

[delldude]

<_< Damn Delldude!!! On looks alone you qualify to be a lead AA mechanic at TUL!!!! Ever thunk about a move??????

[post="310884"][/post]​

'n jest wudd dat s'posed meen n e howe dood?

 

[luvn737s]

The window of opportunity is open right now, but time is short.

Doug Parker has proven that he is great at what he does, and that's operate a successful, well-respected, mostly-regional carrier.

If by region, you mean every major market in the US, Canada and Mexico, then I guess they're "regional".

Ed Colodny was in the exact same position in 1986 and 1987 when he jumped out of the "large regional" status to real-life national carrier (with one transatlantic route, i.e. Piedmont's LGW authority.)

Did Ed Colodny revive an airline in the wake of the worst blow to commercial aviation in it's history? Did he rebuild a failing airline by focusing on operational fundamentals and realistically looking at what his airline was and what it needed to be?

USAirways hauls massive amounts of customers to Europe, the Caribbean and Central America. The markets are ripe, but the recently-departed US/East management would never agressively address these opportunities, especially to Europe. This carrier has historically been shy of buying BIG airplanes. I mean the kind that fly to foreign cities with lots of revenue on board, both in the cabin and in the hold. It took Wolf and Gangwal to wrench the company beyond the "little" big 767's, and the A330's have been a huge success.

Here here applause all around for the efforts of Mr. Wolf (sound of crickets chirping in the distance). Domestically, USAirways is a shambles and needs to be rebuilt. It needs to drastically improve it's productivity of every remaining asset. That means shrinking first, then when a solid operation exists, measured growth. Throwing more airplanes (even widebodies) at an airline that is in such disarray is not the answer.

So? What next?

Keep the high-yield markets stagnant. Give JetBlue and AirTran and maybe some other start-ups that we haven't even heard of yet a few years to catch on to these markets, so that in 2009 when the next A330 is now going to arrive, we will see transatlantic saturated with new entrants who grabbed market share from Delta, NWA and maybe Contninental while they right-sized in BK.

More likely you will see the newly shorn legacies come out of the gate ready to make some international bank without losing their shirts domestically. New entrants? With JB planning on announcing a loss, I doubt you'll see the likes of Soros coming in with new entrant money. Maybe some new airplanes will show up before 2009, but Parker realistically sees the work ahead of him and has given himself ample time to try and fix US.

Yeah. Let's not grow at all for two years. Let's shrink a bit more while the REAL low cost carriers continue to grow into our markets.

REAL low cost carriers? At the rates they've agreed to for the E-190 (which may be the benchmark for all fleets going forward) this will be as low cost as any.

The window of opportunity is open right now, but time is short.

Fix it right. There's NO time to try and fix it twice

Doug? Are you really ready to play in the big leagues?

Nah, let's fire him and get the revolving door of management cranked back up. That always works!

[post="310787"][/post]​

 

[usair_begins_with_u]

Wal-Mart...growth with no innovation...

If ignorance were cornflakes, the joker who spewed this crap could surely pass himself off as general mills.

Wal-Mart is a driving force in modern retail supply chain management. Wal-Mart had the foresight to approach its suppliers as if they were partners, not adversaries. They shared data with suppliers and implemented a collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR) program. Wal-Mart began a just-in-time inventory program that reduced carrying costs for both the retailer and its suppliers. Thats just some of the innovation in their supply chain. We are talking ground breaking here. Walmart is the benchmark for state of the art in supply chain mgmt.

You want to talk high tech? Around about 1990, Walmart installed a massive satellite system linked all of the stores to company headquarters, giving Wal-Mart's centralized IT department real-time inventory data, and they have continued to invest heavy in IT. If you read any business journals, you'd know they have been spear heading efforts to bring RFID to retail, though probably ahead of its time. Their founder Sam Walton first explored the idea of using computers to handle inventory in each store in the mid-1960s.

Ugh.. like we needed more evidence that most of the people here would be lucky to have the brains god gave a piss ant.

 

[PHXLOST]

Then all this PISS ANT has to say is greetings and have a great time at your Wal-Mart..or WN or were ever you are better off...And as We're on our way up say HI YA'LL on your way down..The Gen. Signing off

 

[deelmakur]

Based on that perceptive analysis by Merrill Lynch, you probably want to go out and buy some. After all, with just 2 bankruptcies at US, and merely one at HP, these guys have only wiped out three sets of shareholders, collectively.

 

[700UW]

* America West (now US Airways) A320 N671AW [2077] has been retired from the fleet. Last revenue service was HP237 27Sep-2005
Detroit-Phoenix. Ferried HP7808 29Sep-2005 Phoenix-Goodyear