2014 Fleet Service Discussion

[roabilly]

  If the company were to file a lawsuit,  it may take years to hear the whole thing. Maybe thats what the unions are thinking as the JCBA would have been settled by then.  If not,  and the TWU is sued and looses quickly,  who bears the burden of the resulting $$ fines? The IAM might argue that the Association had not been voted on so that relieves them of liability. 
  It's really not a so cut and dry situation as some think ( IMO ). I think that the argument may be made to the MNB that if not released soon, that there is great harm in six months from Jan 2014. 

One thing for certain,
 
When you enter the words "legal", "attorneys", and/or "liability" into the equation... the end result is TIME and MONEY! The victor in any such case, usually has more of both...
 
Ask the PILOTS!

 

[Tim Nelson]

  If the company were to file a lawsuit,  it may take years to hear the whole thing. Maybe thats what the unions are thinking as the JCBA would have been settled by then.  If not,  and the TWU is sued and looses quickly,  who bears the burden of the resulting $$ fines? The IAM might argue that the Association had not been voted on so that relieves them of liability. 
  It's really not a so cut and dry situation as some think ( IMO ). I think that the argument may be made to the MNB that if not released soon, that there is great harm in six months from Jan 2014. 

Everything will depend upon the NMB"s direction on the release.  We can say with certainty that the NMB will table any SCS application if it has already issued a release or made any determination recognizing the IAM's rights to bargain for a sUS stand alone contract.  Judging by the IAM"s update, it believes it is most probable that the NMB will issue 'something' in about two months.  I may be wrong, but I believe the Obama administration is going to be "Heavy" on labor's side and either issue a release or otherwise have the NMB positioned in a neutral way that stalls any idea of the merger advancing until management settles a fair agreement.
 
I know there are those who differ and think that somehow the Democrats and Obama won't be anything but neutral but each and every time the IAM needed Obama, he delivered, both in NLRB cases [Boeing] and NMB cases [see Delta]. And each time it enraged Republicans because it was painfully obvious that Obama was STRONG with labor.   Those that say that the NMB will never release us are basing their predictions on a snapshot of this industry between 9/11 and bankruptcies.  The current environment is incredibly favorable for us.  Is it favorable for the world's biggest airline? Maybe not, but remember, the case is about the 5th biggest airline and 6,000 baggage handlers or 3,000 mx.   I think a cooling off is probable. I do think a PEB could be granted for MX, if they strike, which would further delay, but I don't think any PEB would be granted for baggage handlers. 6,000 baggage handlers isn't going to shut down commerce. And neither will 3,000 mx but I do have to recognize that a PEB was issued for our mx before.  The NMB treats  licensed personnel different as they have more leverage. 

 

[Tim Nelson]

If a release is issued, it raises leverage.  Considering that,  the IAM should reflect that and raise the proposals to more favorable economic terms. This is the risk AH is playing with.

 

[Tim Nelson]

  If the company were to file a lawsuit,  it may take years to hear the whole thing. Maybe thats what the unions are thinking as the JCBA would have been settled by then.  If not,  and the TWU is sued and looses quickly,  who bears the burden of the resulting $$ fines? The IAM might argue that the Association had not been voted on so that relieves them of liability. 
  It's really not a so cut and dry situation as some think ( IMO ). I think that the argument may be made to the MNB that if not released soon, that there is great harm in six months from Jan 2014. 

Not in any case will it take years, imo, given the gravity of stopping the nations' biggest airline merger.  But point made.  It will certainly add months if not a year.  All the while, AA falling farther and farther behind Delta and United.  Hundreds of millions of dollars would be pissed away by AH because he didn't want to spend $10 million a year more on 6,000 baggage handlers.  Sounds retarded to me.

 

[roabilly]

Everything will depend upon the NMB"s direction on the release.  We can say with certainty that the NMB will table any SCS application if it has already issued a release or made any determination recognizing the IAM's rights to bargain for a sUS stand alone contract.  Judging by the IAM"s update, it believes it is most probable that the NMB will issue 'something' in about two months.  I may be wrong, but I believe the Obama administration is going to be "Heavy" on labor's side and either issue a release or otherwise have the NMB positioned in a neutral way that stalls any idea of the merger advancing until management settles a fair agreement.
 
I know there are those who differ and think that somehow the Democrats and Obama won't be anything but neutral but each and every time the IAM needed Obama, he delivered, both in NLRB cases [Boeing] and NMB cases [see Delta]. And each time it enraged Republicans because it was painfully obvious that Obama was STRONG with labor.   Those that say that the NMB will never release us are basing their predictions on a snapshot of this industry between 9/11 and bankruptcies.  The current environment is incredibly favorable for us.  Is it favorable for the world's biggest airline? Maybe not, but remember, the case is about the 5th biggest airline and 6,000 baggage handlers or 3,000 mx.   I think a cooling off is probable. I do think a PEB could be granted for MX, if they strike, which would further delay, but I don't think any PEB would be granted for baggage handlers. 6,000 baggage handlers isn't going to shut down commerce. And neither will 3,000 mx but I do have to recognize that a PEB was issued for our mx before.  The NMB treats  licensed personnel different as they have more leverage. 

WOW! -- You have certainly changed course over the past few months!
 
It wasn’t that long ago that you were blasting me for suggesting a PEB may occur for either group. I think you even posted a ranting manifesto about the remoteness of it happening now, and the history as to why it won’t happen as I suggested!
 
I’m sure I can dig the post up if I search for it...
 
Anyway, I find myself agreeing with you in terms of the POTUS leaning toward Labor, and I do feel that will be an advantage for Fleet.
 
However-- I think that’s about ALL we agree on at this point...

 

[NYer]

Read the agreement signed by the IAM and TWU, it states both unions will file the SCS jointly.
 
http://www.iamdl142.org/Bulletins/2013/TWU/Mechanic%20and%20Related%20Association%20Agreement.pdf

 
The "Association" hasn't been voted on or recognized by the NMB, therefore that document is still not really in force. Is it?

 

[700UW]

The vote is for the approval of the membership for the alliance the IAM and TWU are bound by its terms that each party agreed too with each other.

 

[Tim Nelson]

WOW! -- You have certainly changed course over the past few months!
 
It wasn’t that long ago that you were blasting me for suggesting a PEB may occur for either group. I think you even posted a ranting manifesto about the remoteness of it happening now, and the history as to why it won’t happen as I suggested!
 
I’m sure I can dig the post up if I search for it...
 
Anyway, I find myself agreeing with you in terms of the POTUS leaning toward Labor, and I do feel that will be an advantage for Fleet.
 
However-- I think that’s about ALL we agree on at this point...

I never said that it can't be granted. I still think it is unlikely to be granted. As I said, it could be granted though.  My position has been that it is better for fleet to be released, and my hunch is that the NMB will order for fleet to be released, if anyone.  Honestly, MX has alot more divisions than Fleet.  Nobody from fleet is pushing against the IAM.  We may want different IAM officers but I think everyone is on board as far as support for the IAM. 
 
And for the audience, I think a release is most probable but it doesn't mean a strike is inevitable.  A release is just a release.  A PEB can stop any possible strike action.  But, even a release will increase leverage. 
 
The absolute worst situation for AH is to keep flittering around and get this whole merger caught up with a release, then have a PEB that further delays things and then after a PEB have this whole merger thing hung up in DC.  How many hundreds of millions of dollars would AH be burning, all because he refused to match the extra $10 million a year that our NC asked for.  Stepping over dollar bills to pick up a penny is what he would be doing.
 
IMO,  AH better settle crap if a release is granted.  Nobody wants to strike but we have little choice as he is taking us on and being incredibly unfair.  I would have to say that things will get settled before any 30 day cooling off expires, because it would be insane for AH to just piss away hundreds of millions otherwise.
 
As far as our disagreements, me and you, over candidates or other items, I'm fine with that. It's not for us to say, the membership will decide.

 

[NYer]

You have an easy time quote mining me, don't you?  I never said the NMB will stall. I said nobody knows what the NMB will do, but I give a small lean to the Union due to Obama.  In fact, the NMB is stalling right now.  As far as Obama, yes, he has been instrumental with his labor boards and a stronger advocate for Labor than any former president in my lifetime. He changed the NMB rules manual to be so much fairer, and did so as a result of the Delta election.  His NLRB even stopped Boeing from moving forward with a new plant in South Carolina that incited Republicans who knew it was a result of Obama's strong resolve for Labor.   And, labor's political landscape with him is still growing and persuading public opinion, insomuch as the minimum wage is now another hot topic, The Democratic agenda has States and key cities pressuring Airlines and governments to pay higher wages.  I actually find it ludicrous that you can't recognize this.
 
Focusing on this industry, the situation couldn't be any better!!!   Previously, from 9/11, no democrat or Republican would approve a release due to the state of the industry and economy.  Even when Obama took over, businesses were in bankruptcy, unemployment approached 10%, and we were in the 'great recession'.  So, sorry to say, American Airline unions didn't have much leverage in a bankrupt industry.   So you are comparing apples to oranges my friend.
 
Step into the reality of the present situation.  Airlines are reporting not only record profits but their profits, according to DP, far exceed even their projections. Sorry, brother, but this industry is vibrant and having 6,000 Fleet service workers walk out on strike isn't going to cripple this industry. In fact, it's bizarre to suggest otherwise. 
 
When the NMB ruled a release for the MX in 1993,  the airline may have even had more mechanics than it does today.  If fact, we have less fleet service today than we did in 1993 as well.  The case before the NMB is one that has either 6,000 baggage handlers being released, or 3,000 mx.  In either case, releasing workers from the 5th biggest airline isn't going to crash this industry.  IMO, your argument has absolutely no merit.  That doesn't mean that the NMB won't stall or otherwise drag this out. In the end, who knows?  I just think that the IAM has  a compelling case.  This isn't  my case, it's the IAM's case and I think it has a lot of support.

 
Since that time, the NLRB had three vacant positions which the President used his "recess appointment" power to fill those positions. The GOP immediately tried to stop those appointments calling them unconstitutional and the case has made it to the Supreme Court
 
"Oral arguments slated for Monday will center on a trio of recess appointments to the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) that were deemed unconstitutional by lower courts." --The Hill.
           
---------------------------
 
I do recognize the Democrats trying to force the issue on raising wages. That fight is to raise the minimum wage to $10.10 an hour, They are not trying to raise the wages of those involved in collective bargaining. There's a big difference there, Tim.
 
------------------
 
The NMB could care less about the airline or the employees. The "NMB's statutory authority as national mediator for the airline and railroad industries is critical to public interest in maintaining an uninterrupted flow of U.S. Commerce." When you have the largest legacy airline in the country at the same time as you have the largest "low cost carrier" in mediation, the prospect of a release is non-existent.
 
------------------

 

[P. REZ]

I never said that it can't be granted. I still think it is unlikely to be granted. As I said, it could be granted though.  My position has been that it is better for fleet to be released, and my hunch is that the NMB will order for fleet to be released, if anyone.  Honestly, MX has alot more divisions than Fleet.  Nobody from fleet is pushing against the IAM.  We may want different IAM officers but I think everyone is on board as far as support for the IAM. 
 
And for the audience, I think a release is most probable but it doesn't mean a strike is inevitable.  A release is just a release.  A PEB can stop any possible strike action.  But, even a release will increase leverage. 
 
The absolute worst situation for AH is to keep flittering around and get this whole merger caught up with a release, then have a PEB that further delays things and then after a PEB have this whole merger thing hung up in DC.  How many hundreds of millions of dollars would AH be burning, all because he refused to match the extra $10 million a year that our NC asked for.  Stepping over dollar bills to pick up a penny is what he would be doing.
 
IMO,  AH better settle crap if a release is granted.  Nobody wants to strike but we have little choice as he is taking us on and being incredibly unfair.  I would have to say that things will get settled before any 30 day cooling off expires, because it would be insane for AH to just piss away hundreds of millions otherwise.
 
As far as our disagreements, me and you, over candidates or other items, I'm fine with that. It's not for us to say, the membership will decide.

 
 

I never said that it can't be granted. I still think it is unlikely to be granted. As I said, it could be granted though.  My position has been that it is better for fleet to be released, and my hunch is that the NMB will order for fleet to be released, if anyone.  Honestly, MX has alot more divisions than Fleet.  Nobody from fleet is pushing against the IAM.  We may want different IAM officers but I think everyone is on board as far as support for the IAM. 
 
And for the audience, I think a release is most probable but it doesn't mean a strike is inevitable.  A release is just a release.  A PEB can stop any possible strike action.  But, even a release will increase leverage. 
 
The absolute worst situation for AH is to keep flittering around and get this whole merger caught up with a release, then have a PEB that further delays things and then after a PEB have this whole merger thing hung up in DC.  How many hundreds of millions of dollars would AH be burning, all because he refused to match the extra $10 million a year that our NC asked for.  Stepping over dollar bills to pick up a penny is what he would be doing.
 
IMO,  AH better settle crap if a release is granted.  Nobody wants to strike but we have little choice as he is taking us on and being incredibly unfair.  I would have to say that things will get settled before any 30 day cooling off expires, because it would be insane for AH to just piss away hundreds of millions otherwise.
 
As far as our disagreements, me and you, over candidates or other items, I'm fine with that. It's not for us to say, the membership will decide.

Tim,
 
Totally disagree with you because that would take some compromise on our positions. So you think the Company would come 100% our way to settle? That would suggest that within the next 60 days or so poof, here is everything we want. C'mon Tim, I don't think you thought that one through.  
 
P. Rez

 

[NYer]

The vote is for the approval of the membership for the alliance the IAM and TWU are bound by its terms that each party agreed too with each other.

 
Without approval from the Membership how could the "Association" be recognized by the NMB.
 
Without the Association, the TWU could submit for Single Carrier status, which would force the issue with the IAM. I'd guess they'd want to prevent that so they will likely receive a "last offer" from the airline, which the NMB would require be sent out for a vote. They would also be required to not send out a recommendation of vote.
 
The idea that the NMB would allow a 30 day cooling off period to the largest airline in the world, while at the same time having another large airline, Southwest, in mediation and also seeking release would be short sighted. At the same time, risking the merger between US Airways and AA by causing systemic damage to both operations. All while there is another round of negotiations just around the corner....It just makes absolutely no sense for the NMB to make that move.

 

[700UW]

WN being in mediation has nothing to do with US being released.
 
And the NMB isnt really going to have a choice when US said they are done negotiating, that is bad faith.

 

[Tim Nelson]

 
Since that time, the NLRB had three vacant positions which the President used his "recess appointment" power to fill those positions. The GOP immediately tried to stop those appointments calling them unconstitutional and the case has made it to the Supreme Court
 
"Oral arguments slated for Monday will center on a trio of recess appointments to the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) that were deemed unconstitutional by lower courts." --The Hill.
           
---------------------------
 
I do recognize the Democrats trying to force the issue on raising wages. That fight is to raise the minimum wage to $10.10 an hour, They are not trying to raise the wages of those involved in collective bargaining. There's a big difference there, Tim.
 
------------------
 
The NMB could care less about the airline or the employees. The "NMB's statutory authority as national mediator for the airline and railroad industries is critical to public interest in maintaining an uninterrupted flow of U.S. Commerce." When you have the largest legacy airline in the country at the same time as you have the largest "low cost carrier" in mediation, the prospect of a release is non-existent.
 
------------------

Again, this isn't the largest airline argument since the case before it involves only a subsidiary of it.  On paper, the NMB statutory is undeniable.  But it is a HUGE political office.  I think you should give Obama more credit.  Read the book "Grounded".  They called the NMB the "Small Obscure Bureau"  for Son of B*&Tches.  It's so political it is tainted. This time, it is tainted the direction of labor.  Time will tell if that means movement on our end. 

 

[Tim Nelson]

 
 
Tim,
 
Totally disagree with you because that would take some compromise on our positions. So you think the Company would come 100% our way to settle? That would suggest that within the next 60 days or so poof, here is everything we want. C'mon Tim, I don't think you thought that one through.  
 
P. Rez

The company has a lot to lose.  I'm not suggesting you guys compromise anything as there has been way too much compromise already without any movement from the company. You guys have left yourselves with no room to compromise since you are only asking for the sAA wage. If you had asked for a lot more then you could move downward.  All along the company just kept saying no.  I suggest if there is a release that you guys increase your proposal, since the leverage gets increased. Then, maybe you will gain yourself the wiggle room you guys really should have thought about earlier.  Gosh forbid you wiggle any lower from the current proposal.

 

[Tim Nelson]

 
Without approval from the Membership how could the "Association" be recognized by the NMB.
 
Without the Association, the TWU could submit for Single Carrier status, which would force the issue with the IAM. I'd guess they'd want to prevent that so they will likely receive a "last offer" from the airline, which the NMB would require be sent out for a vote. They would also be required to not send out a recommendation of vote.
 
The idea that the NMB would allow a 30 day cooling off period to the largest airline in the world, while at the same time having another large airline, Southwest, in mediation and also seeking release would be short sighted. At the same time, risking the merger between US Airways and AA by causing systemic damage to both operations. All while there is another round of negotiations just around the corner....It just makes absolutely no sense for the NMB to make that move.

US AIRWAYS is not the same airline as American.  Two different subsidiaries. This is your fatal flaw in your reasoning.  The case before the NMB is one of a 5th biggest airline who has only 3,000 mx. 
 
As far as the TWU,  700 is right.  The TWU already agreed to the association.  Any vote will be between the Association and going non union.  So, the association it is.  Case Closed and learn to support that. The sooner you do, the better off all of us will be.
 
Actually, the TWU already informed its members of this and the leadership has given 100% support for it.  Why won't you?