A matter of hours, anticipated announcement merger

[night-ice]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080413/bs_af...er_080413204552

I realize this pertains to DL/NW merger but with another poster's topic on this US board of a major announcement by US expected, wonder if US would try to up the ante and bid for NWA? Dang, just got a great p/t shift with NW, too...

With these two players (NW/DL) coming together, I hope for US that they have a game plan together and anticipated this announcement with some news of their own.

 

[etops1]

i feel next week will be an interesting one for us .nuff said .

 

[CubsFanJohn]

Now the question is how will CO, UA, AA and US will react. Here's what I think everyone will do.
CO Call United and talk somemore. And Possibly call AA so they both can spilt UA up because I don't think the DOJ would allow a stright thru CO+UA meger but then again this is the DOJ you know.
AA I could see a number of options on this one A. Join with CO and spilt up UA up, another one this one has been they may go by NW. If AA Management was smart they would have gone after DL when they had the chance, because that would have been a good merger I think.
UA I bet Tilton is about to crazy, since he just may get that parachute soon..... As I said I could see CO and AA spiltting this one up.
US I don't even want to go there...............

 

[Coffee_Tea_Or_Me]

Now the question is how will CO, UA, AA and US will react. Here's what I think everyone will do.
CO Call United and talk somemore. And Possibly call AA so they both can spilt UA up because I don't think the DOJ would allow a stright thru CO+UA meger but then again this is the DOJ you know.
AA I could see a number of options on this one A. Join with CO and spilt up UA up, another one this one has been they may go by NW. If AA Management was smart they would have gone after DL when they had the chance, because that would have been a good merger I think.
UA I bet Tilton is about to crazy, since he just may get that parachute soon..... As I said I could see CO and AA spiltting this one up.
US I don't even want to go there...............

I am not following your logic on this. What makes you think that UA would be split up? They are making profits (for now) and have strong customer support, but suddenly they are just going to break up into pieces? I don't think that is too likely to happen.

DL and NW will likely merge.
CO and UA will likely merge -- hardly ANY overlap at all on routes, so no DOJ problem.
AA might have to file for BK given all of their recent problems and their aging fleet and debt problems. Provided US is still in the green, I can see them doing the same thing to AA they did to DL during BK, but with success given the other mergers. AA name and HQ retained, hubs in ORD, PHL, CLT, DFW, and PHX -- would be a pretty good route map. US flies to more European places, AA does South America and the Far East. I don't think it is too unlikely that they could join. Assuming it happens during a BK, US FAs would reinstate all of TWA F/As seniority, too.

It is fun to speculate on the industry, but none of us ever know a damn thing until it hits the news, anyway.

 

[CubsFanJohn]

CTOM,
You do raise good points. I do agree with the point that I wouldn't be surprise if AA ends up filing either. But the reason I think that UA may merge is Tilton in the past has said that he wants to merge. A while back, I forget when, that CO was talking/flirting with AA and the thinking was they may be talking about dividing up UA, but I think a CO/UA could go thru unsthaved (sp?)personally. I could see a US/AA hook up hopefully without Tempe running it, but another scenero I could see happening is AA going crying to Congress to get the ATI with BA passed. I agree that speculating the industry is fun, this one of the main reasons I enjoy this hobby and I don't work for the Airlines.

 

[aerosmith]

How about RE-Regulation and uncle sam can call the shots.

 

[Iheartflying]

How about RE-Regulation and uncle sam can call the shots.

I can anyone tell me what aviation was like before deregulation? I know I could probably google it but I would like to hear some first hand experiences.

 

[aafsc]

I am not following your logic on this. What makes you think that UA would be split up? They are making profits (for now) and have strong customer support, but suddenly they are just going to break up into pieces? I don't think that is too likely to happen.

DL and NW will likely merge.
CO and UA will likely merge -- hardly ANY overlap at all on routes, so no DOJ problem.
AA might have to file for BK given all of their recent problems and their aging fleet and debt problems. Provided US is still in the green, I can see them doing the same thing to AA they did to DL during BK, but with success given the other mergers. AA name and HQ retained, hubs in ORD, PHL, CLT, DFW, and PHX -- would be a pretty good route map. US flies to more European places, AA does South America and the Far East. I don't think it is too unlikely that they could join. Assuming it happens during a BK, US FAs would reinstate all of TWA F/As seniority, too.

It is fun to speculate on the industry, but none of us ever know a damn thing until it hits the news, anyway.

Just as AA people wanted nothing to do with TWA, AA people want nothing to do with US. As far as "US F/As reinstating the TW F/As seniority"; the 20,000 nAAtive AA F/As will NEVER stand for that; they would put your hypothetical non-happening US/AA combo six feet under before that happened . They are extremely pi$$ed the way things are now.

 

[PA18]

I can anyone tell me what aviation was like before deregulation? I know I could probably google it but I would like to hear some first hand experiences.

Don't ask and don't Google it. That is, if you are working in the industry today.

You will only become very depressed.

 

[EMBFA]

Just as AA people wanted nothing to do with TWA, AA people want nothing to do with US. As far as "US F/As reinstating the TW F/As seniority"; the 20,000 nAAtive AA F/As will NEVER stand for that; they would put your hypothetical non-happening US/AA combo six feet under before that happened . They are extremely pi$$ed the way things are now.

Give me a break. If they are in bAAnkrupcy they don't have a choice what to stAAnd for. Besides, reinstating seniority is not anything that hasn't occured in the past. When USAir and Piedmont merged, US reinstated the seniority Piedmont has taken from the Empire F/As.

 

[jimntx]

Give me a break. If they are in bAAnkrupcy they don't have a choice what to stAAnd for. Besides, reinstating seniority is not anything that hasn't occured in the past. When USAir and Piedmont merged, US reinstated the seniority Piedmont has taken from the Empire F/As.

I am assuming that aafsc stands for AA Fleet Service Clerk. I wouldn't set too much store by what an FSC says about how the flght attendants feel and what we will or will not stand for. As a matter of fact, most AA f/as at the bases where former TW f/as are now based are THRILLED that they are being recalled. Having people junior to you come on the payroll pushes you off reserve--even though most of us only serve reserve 3mo/yr, at LGA traditionally if you had 5-6 years, you were off reserve--not even on the backup list. Until the latest recalls, reserve had been going to 14-15 years at LGA.

 

[LGA Fleet Service]

Speculation is fun isn't it?

AMR isn't filing Chapter 11 after paying down billions of dollars in debt or keeping the pensions funded at 94%.

Since we're speculating, what do you think the odds are of the AMR BOD even entertaining Parker's call? Whats he going to offer? Stock that is currently trading below AMR's ?

Tell me, with all the big investment houses writing off billions in bad loans who exactly is going to lend any airline several billion more for a roll of the dice and risk having that debt go *poof* in another chapter 11 filing? Most airline debt isn't rated investment grade these days.

Parker has demonstrated his inability to find his ass with both hands, a map and a GPS unit, do you really think the AMR BOD is seriously going to consider letting him have the keys?


US recovered from it's Christmas meltdown, AA will recover from the S80 AD debacle.


There's a reason the company has maintained historically high cash levels,and going shopping isn't one of them.

 

[aafsc]

Give me a break. If they are in bAAnkrupcy they don't have a choice what to stAAnd for. Besides, reinstating seniority is not anything that hasn't occured in the past. When USAir and Piedmont merged, US reinstated the seniority Piedmont has taken from the Empire F/As.

Delta was in bankruptcy and they were successful in repelling you; in this unlikely hypothetical situation, nAAtives will do the same. Do you honestly think that the AA F/As and pilots (or any AA employee group for that matter) will work for that trash you call compensation? Also, do you think they will idely stand by and let the US and TWA F/As take AA's best routes; which nAAtive F/As have always flown? Do you think the APA will just let the US pilots use their US seniority to get all AA 777 captain positions (USA320 comes to mind)? AA has more financial staying power than US. AA has assets it could sell or use as collateral (it's Beacon investments subsidiary, Eagle, its heavy maintanence bases), it has gates, slots, route authorities, and aircraft it could use as collateral.

AA could bid for NW; I don't see that happening.
AA could get together with CO and split up UA; I don't see that happening.
AA would be better off going after pieces or remnants of other carriers. The worst thing they could do would be to go with US. IMO, AA will just sit this round of consolidation out and expand into Asia and elsewhere on it's own. As for reinstatement of TWA F/A seniority, AA F/As are not Piedmont F/As.

 

[aafsc]

I am assuming that aafsc stands for AA Fleet Service Clerk. I wouldn't set too much store by what an FSC says about how the flght attendants feel and what we will or will not stand for. As a matter of fact, most AA f/as at the bases where former TW f/as are now based are THRILLED that they are being recalled. Having people junior to you come on the payroll pushes you off reserve--even though most of us only serve reserve 3mo/yr, at LGA traditionally if you had 5-6 years, you were off reserve--not even on the backup list. Until the latest recalls, reserve had been going to 14-15 years at LGA.

It is a known fact that you have always had you lips glued to the hind end of the TWAers. You are right about the the nAAtives being happy about the return of the TWA F/As because they come back UNDER them. The nAAtive F/As would not be happy if somehow the TWA F/As got their TWA seniority reinstated under a US/AA pairing; which is what was the poster stated-learn to read. Yes, all one has to do is read the AA board to see how nAAtives F/As (except for you) feel about the ex -TWA F/As having their TWA seniority at AA.

 

[Iheartflying]

Don't ask and don't Google it. That is, if you are working in the industry today.

You will only become very depressed.

I am in the industry today but I wasn't born when the industry de-regulated. Can anyone who experienced the differences firsthand give me some insight?